ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

If you notice now the ECMWF is dead on neutral if not slightly cool neutral when last month it was forecasting a very warm neutral.

[Bocadude85]

I'd bet on the horseshoe-shaped water not being as cool as one would believe it should be due to a farther east-displaced ridge like we've seen all winter and spring, which also happens to be really bad for the USA if it persists (landfalls).

What particular areas of the U.S. did you have in mind? Gulf Coast, East Coast, Texas Coast (I know this is part of the Gulf Coast, but it's so big it nearly deserves its own designation)?

The East Coast in particular, though I'm also a little concerned about the eastern Gulf Coast. The seasonal model forecasts are for expansive ridging across southern and eastern Canada during the peak of the season, with minor troughing in the central USA extending ever so slightly into the East. This puts anyone on the East Coast at play, especially Florida. Cyclones that develop or get pretty far south initially may get pulled north into whatever trough is positioned across the country at the time. (Ivan/Dennis).

Not trying to nitpick at all but just curious why on your risk map in the other thread you have Florida at a medium risk of a landfall if the upcoming pattern would favor landfalls in Florida? Wouldn't that warrant a high risk for Florida?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not trying to nitpick at all but just curious why on your risk map in the other thread you have Florida at a medium risk of a landfall if the upcoming pattern would favor landfalls in Florida? Wouldn't that warrant a high risk for Florida?

It was a mess-up on my part. It should have been red.

I deleted the PSD file afterwards because I wasn't planning on doing another impact map this year, so I couldn't revise it either.

[Ntxw]

Latest MJO forecasts from the models show it weakening into the circle after exiting Indonesia. If this is indeed the case and it does not progress into the Pacific, we'll likely continue the cooling trend of the eastern ENSO regions. A weaker MJO wave could also lessen the potential, not completely rule it out, of development in the EPAC and Atlantic basin the rest of May.

[NDG]

If it was not for the models one would think that a La Nina would be around the corner just by looking at the current anomalies.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/20/13 update

A big drop from -0.1C of last week's update to this week's -0.4C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Latest MJO forecasts from the models show it weakening into the circle after exiting Indonesia. If this is indeed the case and it does not progress into the Pacific, we'll likely continue the cooling trend of the eastern ENSO regions. A weaker MJO wave could also lessen the potential, not completely rule it out, of development in the EPAC and Atlantic basin the rest of May.

And the cooling continues. If a warming of the Equatorial Pacific occurs it has to wait a while longer.

[Ntxw]

I think we've got most of our cooling done for the next few weeks. It should move back up a few notches slowly as the MJO has exited the cooling phases (Indonesia) and is now incoherent, but likely not by much.

[cycloneye]

The May update of the EUROSIP is up and is wide in the forecast as you can see.

[Hurricaneman]

Most of the euro ensembles stay in the neutral range, looks like this year will continue neutral for the hurricane season

[Ntxw]

Daily, 30 day, and 90 day SOI have really gone positive lately. At the same time mountain torque has been in the very negative territory is giving off -AAM anomalies past couple of days. Both the MJO and the features above have created a very La Nina-esque pattern worldwide (i.e. uptick in tornado activity across the US). How much of this will effect SST's?

[cycloneye]

Daily, 30 day, and 90 day SOI have really gone positive lately. At the same time mountain torque has been in the very negative territory is giving off -AAM anomalies past couple of days. Both the MJO and the features above have created a very La Nina-esque pattern worldwide (i.e. uptick in tornado activity across the US). How much of this will effect SST's?

If things continue the cooling trend I would not be surprised to see a Weak La Nina instead of Neutral at least for part of Summer.

[NDG]

Daily, 30 day, and 90 day SOI have really gone positive lately. At the same time mountain torque has been in the very negative territory is giving off -AAM anomalies past couple of days. Both the MJO and the features above have created a very La Nina-esque pattern worldwide (i.e. uptick in tornado activity across the US). How much of this will effect SST's?

If things continue the cooling trend I would not be surprised to see a Weak La Nina instead of Neutral at least for part of Summer.

Not completely would agree with you but I would say that the chances of a weak La Nina could certainly go up if the current trend continues, IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Well I guess this super strong MJO was supposed to help warm Pacific SST's but instead it's beginning to trigger a La-Nina. Go figure.

[cycloneye]

Look how Nino 3.4 has gone downhill in the past few days.

[Hurricaneman]

Look how Nino 3.4 has gone downhill in the past few days.

Im starting to see a possible la nina coming on

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Look how Nino 3.4 has gone downhill in the past few days.

Im starting to see a possible la nina coming on

Oh GOD. This means that we could see a potential category 5. WHO AGREES?

[lester]

Look how Nino 3.4 has gone downhill in the past few days.

Im starting to see a possible la nina coming on

Oh GOD. This means that we could see a potential category 5. WHO AGREES?

ENSO has nothing to do with that.

[Ntxw]

While the odds of a weak La Nina are growing it is still a fairly slim chance so lets not get carried away. Warming and cooling goes in cycles during neutral years as the MJO is a bigger factor than when a true La Nina or El Nino is present. Neutral is still the best bet and even if La Nina were to come on we will not have enough to fit the criteria of 5 consecutive tri-monthlies unless the Pacific went bonkers and -1c or lower the next several months. It will be the fall at the very soonest if La Nina were to be officially present therefore it will be neutral through the summer at least. Though this is not to say La Nina-like weather conditions can't be present especially if the cooler neutral continues.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

ENSO has nothing to do with that.

Oh ok then.