2013 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

If that turns out true.. that could be horrific for Mexico looking at how close it is to the country.

[Cyclenall]

A recap so far of the season. Alvin was a dud and he went thud.

12Z GFS

*Cut*

THE EYE

*Cut*

WOW, looks like a major hurricane right beside Mexico before the month is out, its possible. That simulated satellite of the cane looks like a giant version of Hurricane Andrew.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND.

[supercane4867]

If that turns out true.. that could be horrific for Mexico looking at how close it is to the country.

GFS has it make landfall on Mexico as a weaker storm, and the remnant may contribute to the future Atlantic system

[Yellow Evan]

If that turns out true.. that could be horrific for Mexico looking at how close it is to the country.

Worst early seasons storm to hit MX are Agatha/Briget 71 and Dolores 74.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS seems to be making a pretty dangerous potential system south of Mexico still, could Mexico get a bad system from this or is this being overdeveloped by the GFS

[supercane4867]

Tropical wave entering EPAC

[cycloneye]

We now have INVEST 91E!

[cycloneye]

NOAA forecasts a below average 2013 EPAC season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

[Yellow Evan]

NOAA forecasts a below average 2013 EPAC season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

When was the last year they did not? 2009?

[cycloneye]

It looks like the area behind 91E may have a better chance to develop.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COAST OF COSTA RICA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cyclenall]

NOAA forecasts a below average 2013 EPAC season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

When was the last year they did not? 2009?

Exactly, I made a joke last year about it. Every single year they predict a below average Epac season (even in 2006 they did, an El Nino season) but IIRC 2012 was a shocker...they went with average activity . So yellow, do you think their call is going to bust? I'm thinking average.

[Yellow Evan]

NOAA forecasts a below average 2013 EPAC season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

When was the last year they did not? 2009?

Exactly, I made a joke last year about it. Every single year they predict a below average Epac season (even in 2006 they did, an El Nino season) but IIRC 2012 was a shocker...they went with average activity . So yellow, do you think their call is going to bust? I'm thinking average.

Agreed unless these La Nina like-conditions keep it up, maybe, below. Ill likely post my hurricane forecast for the season at a latter date.

[cycloneye]

There are three low pressure areas at this time in the Eastern Pacific. The question is which of them will consolidate and develop into a TC or none will do so.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NICARAGUA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEMS...ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEMS...ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEMS...ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE
OR DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[cycloneye]

We have INVEST 92E.

[cycloneye]

EPAC has turned quiet after Barbara but maybe the MJO arriving by late June sparks something.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC has turned quiet after Barbara but maybe the MJO arriving by late June sparks something.

GFS has a few areas of low pressures in the Eastern East Pacific in 10 days.

[Hurricane_Luis]

10% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation



1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.