Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

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JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 25 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

No change to the wet forecast in the midday update.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1129 AM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THUS MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST TJSJ
25/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THAT OF TFFR IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND THUS MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THIS AT TIMES MAY DELAY THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER....STILL EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS
OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN STILL HOWEVER BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECT TO CONTINUOUS. SOIL REMAIN
SATURATED AND LOOSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL ALSO QUICKLY REACT
WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED LATER TODAY
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. SO STAY TUNED AND REMAIN ALERT DURING
THE REST OF THE LONG WEEKEND.

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE 25/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DUE TO LOOSE AND SATURATED SOILS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TEMPO MVFR CONDS VCTY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ TIL 25/22Z DUE TO AFTN
CONVECTION AND LOW SCUD CLDS WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 25/23Z.
THEREAFTER...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVR COASTAL
WATERS AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VCSH
FOR TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. L/LVL WINDS WILL
FM E-SE 10-15 KNOTS BLO FL100 AND INCR W/HT BCMG FM W WITH MAX WND
AROUND 45 KTS NR FL400.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST EXPOSED WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 85 / 70 70 60 60
STT 77 86 79 87 / 70 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Less rain than expected for today but by midweek,another round of deep moisture will arrive.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THEN RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY FADE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE RETREATS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES NORTH WHILE STRENGTHENING. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK AND DEEPENS NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL WAS SEEN OVERNIGHT AND
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ENTERED PUERTO RICO IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS SAINT CROIX DID HAVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS THAT LEFT
AROUND ONE TENTH INCH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LESS OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE SOUNDERS HAS HELD STEADY NEAR 2 INCHES. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MOISTURE
LITTLE CHANGED IT WAS DECIDED TO TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SINCE VERY LITTLE HAS HAPPENED OVER PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY AND SOME AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE
HEAVY...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION NOW INDICATED FOR
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE REMNANTS OF A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER
FORECASTING MOISTURE SO HAVE DISCOUNTED HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER ALL EXCEPT WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MODEL CANNOT
RESOLVE THE LOCAL CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS THE CURRENT PATTERN IS
ABNORMALLY WET AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS HAS SHOWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. THIS
MAY SERVE TO MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE LOCAL AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS DEPICTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEK...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A PASSING TROPICAL
WAVE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TAKEN DOWN FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SUFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER BASIN TO SEND IT
NEAR OR OVER FLOOD STAGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING THAT
OCCURS WILL BE MINOR. OTHERWISE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVOKE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW AT LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 26/16Z BRIEF MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ARND 26/22Z...AFFECTING
MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SFC UP TO 5
KFT.

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE ABATED SLIGHTLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO
6 FEET IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 86 77 / 60 50 60 70
STT 86 77 86 77 / 60 40 60 50

[cycloneye]

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JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 26 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion by Rob of Crownweather regarding the possible Western Caribbean development.

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7362

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND 2 INCHES IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT IT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND MOVING TO THE EAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING...DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS STREAMED OFF THE ISLANDS LATE IN THE MORNING
AND IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATED
RELATIVELY QUICK.

LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MEANING THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS THAN THOSE THAT
AFFECTED PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY AND TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS HAD STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...AND INTENSE LIGHTNING...SO IT SHOULD NOT BE TOTALLY OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG RANGE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD STAY
WITH US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS TJBQ UNTIL AROUND
26/22Z DUE TO SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS LOW CIGS FOR TJMZ. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 26/22Z...LEAVING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLD PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 27/12Z. SHRA/TSRA
LIKELY AGAIN AFTER 27/16Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WINDS WILL BE UP
TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 85 / 40 50 70 70
STT 78 87 78 87 / 40 50 50 60

[HurricaneFan]

But isn't the the Tropical Wave creeping up on the Islands much sooner than forecasted?

[cycloneye]

But isn't the the Tropical Wave creeping up on the Islands much sooner than forecasted?

It seems to have speeded up bigtime.Let's see what effects the passage will have as it interacts with the trough.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. This week will be a mostly rainy one for the Eastern Caribbean so stay tuned for any flooding that may occur.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST MON MAY 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 00Z TJSJ
SOUNDING AS WELL AS GPS MET DATA SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION...MIMIC
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS INDUCING A LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THIS LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OVER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...AS
PRECIPITABLE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND GOOD VENTILATION ABOVE WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOCAL HIGH-RES 2KM WRF MODEL SHOWED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.
IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FORECAST CHARTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 28/16Z BRIEF MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH AT LEAST 27/21Z...
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET
IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 50 40 40 40
STT 85 76 87 79 / 50 50 50 50

[Gustywind]

Good morning. This week will be a mostly rainy one for the Eastern Caribbean so stay tuned for any flooding that may occur.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST MON MAY 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 00Z TJSJ
SOUNDING AS WELL AS GPS MET DATA SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION...MIMIC
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS INDUCING A LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THIS LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OVER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT TIME OF MAX HEATING...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...AS
PRECIPITABLE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND GOOD VENTILATION ABOVE WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOCAL HIGH-RES 2KM WRF MODEL SHOWED THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND IN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.
IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FORECAST CHARTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 28/16Z BRIEF MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH AT LEAST 27/21Z...
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET
IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 50 40 40 40
STT 85 76 87 79 / 50 50 50 50

Guadeloupe is on orange alert since yesterday night 7PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Meteo-France Guadeloupe just back off the orange alert this morning for yellow alert. Whereas, some localities have been well showered with rainfall reaching more than 80 millimeters.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 27 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

There was a 5.6 quake near the Panama/Costa Rica border.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST MON MAY 27 2013


.SYNOPSIS...THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL/WEAKEN
THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN WILL
BE MAINTAINED ALOFT AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS TO THEN SPREAD WESTWARDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND INDUCE
A WEST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW AND WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A HIGH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE
RESULT IN A MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACED THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AS IT CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
MIMIC TPW AS WELL AS THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA FOR BOTH TJSJ
AND TFFR ALL SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR NEAR TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE INTENSE AT TIMES AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE BETTER
UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION/DIFFLUENCE FOR FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION.
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
REGION...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALIZED IN ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND DEVELOPING ISOLD TSRA WILL CAUSE TEMPO
MVFR CONDS EN ROUTE AND VCTY OF TKPK...TNCM...TIST...TISX...AND
TJSJ AT LEAST UNTIL 27/23Z. DEVELOPING AFTN TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WRN PR WILL ALSO CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDS FOR TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ TIL 27/23Z. MTN TOP OBSCR ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR
IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE E-SE AT 10-15 KTS WITH SFC WND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. MOSTLY
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFT 27/23Z.

&&

.MARINE....MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 40 40 40 40
STT 78 87 78 88 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is expected today in PR and adjacent islands as the trough lingers nearby.May 2013 is now the fourth of most rainfall ever.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST TUE MAY 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGHINESS NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER AN ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SEVERAL LAYERS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA
IS UNDER A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...GPS MET DATA AT BAYAMON AND CHRISTIANSTED
SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED SLOWLY IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM 2.23 INCHES AT 00Z
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT 08Z. AS A RESULT...RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING ONLY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH NO RAIN ECHOS OVER LAND.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION/DIFFLUENCE FOR
FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
THE VENTILATION ALOFT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND
SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED IN ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WET PATTERN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PARTICULARLY...28/00Z GFS SHOWED LARGE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...IN
RESPONSE TO A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A MID TO UPPER LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS WETTER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 28/15Z...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...
TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM. AFTER 28/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 12.04" SO FAR. MAY 1936 CONTINUES TO BE
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WITH 16.87".

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 79 87 79 / 30 40 40 40
STT 84 80 85 80 / 40 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion by Rob of Crown Weather Services anout what may occur in the Western Caribbean in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7363

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE MAY 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND THE
UPPER JET WHICH PROVIDED A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN PR WERE QUICK TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINED OVER PUERTO RICO...A FEW STREAMERS DEVELOPED OFF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND AFFECTED EASTERN PR. THESE SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR TOMORROW...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS THE MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. HAVING SAID THAT...WE DO
HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND IF IT MAKES IT A BIT SOONER THAN WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

AFTER THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AFTER THAT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO DOMINATE BUT SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD IFR/MVFR
COND OVR INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFT...OBSCG SOME MTNS. ISOLD
SHRA ELSEWHERE. TONITE/EARLY WED WL SEE SCT SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA
FOR EASTERN PR/USVI. A REPEAT OF SHRA/TSRA FOR SAME LOCATIONS PROBL
WED. LLVL WIND BLO FL120 E 15-25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 87 / 40 40 40 40
STT 78 88 78 89 / 50 50 40 40

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe back off yellow alert... green code now

[Macrocane]

The last 5 days have been very wet in El Salvador, the rainy season has begun, there's no doubt about it. This is a comparison of the rainfall in the last five days and the rainfall prior to that this year:

Acajutla
January 1-May 22 51.9 mm/2.04 inch
May 23-May 27 105.3 mm/4.15 inch

Los Naranjos
January 1-May 22 166.6 mm/6.56 inch
May 23-May 27 147.2 mm/5.80 inch

Santa Ana
January 1-May 22 122.9 mm/4.84 inch
May 23-May 27 120.0 mm/4.72 inch

Las Pilas
January 1-May 22 178.4 mm/7.02 inch
May 23-May 27 95.5 mm/3.76 inch

San Miguel
January 1-May 22 76.7 mm/3.02 inch
May 23-May 27 53.6 mm/2.11 inch

Perquin
January 1-May 22 406.6 mm/16.00 inch
May 23-May 27 83.2 mm/3.28 inch

La Union
January 1-May 22 185.6 mm/7.31 inch
May 23-May 27 72.4 mm/2.85 inch

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Afternoon showers will be the norm for PR in the next couple of days before another increase in deep moisture is expected by the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST WED MAY 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. ACCUMULATIONS WERE NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE ONCE
AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
SURGE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST 29/00Z SJU-GFS MODEL INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKEN AND AN MID TO UPPER
LEVEL THROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO
WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AFTER 29/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PR IN SHRA/TSRA...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ THROUGH 30/21Z. ELSEWHERE...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN 15-20 KT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT NEAR SHRA/TSRA.



&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 40 40 40 10
STT 88 78 89 78 / 50 40 40 30