Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[Dean4Storms]

I think something comes of the monsoonal trough down there organizing into a closed low. Whatever develops it will struggle with likely some shear and decreasing SST's as it gets drawn northward in the Gulf. I cannot see anything more than a TS worst case scenario.

[Aric Dunn]

The moisture and convection on the increase in a big way today with a wave also approaching from the eastern carrib the timing appears to be in line with the models.,
however the models keep the energy near or over land... maybe hard to get anything going..

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS shows the monsoon trough around 90hrs becoming a broad low from about 96 to 216 consolidating at 216 into a tropical cyclone so the model shows this thing taking 5 days to go from broad low to tropical cyclone which for the type of tropical system would make perfect sense so the BOC and Western Caribbean need to be watched for possible action later in the week

[ronjon]

Moisture on the increase in the caribbean this morning. The 00z ECM and GFS are now aligning at the 10 day time frame with weak low development off the NE Yucatan. If something does develop, I'd expect the typical weak sheared tropical storm but it could be a huge rain maker especially for the FL peninsula.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[Hurricaneman]

The models the last couple of days especially the GFS are showing landfall anywhere between Pensacola to Naples so if this does or doesn't form it will be a real wet late next week for Florida, possibly even early the week after

[NDG]

One thing for sure is that both the GFS and Euro show a very wet pattern for the FL Peninsula over the next 10 days, especially for southern FL where the GFS has been persistently showing rainfall totals in the 5-10" range.

[tolakram]

I use this model page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Until something shows up before the very last frames I don't believe it, and even then I think it's a stretch.

Right now, in the last frames, GFS and Euro showing something, maybe, in the southern Gulf. My guess is something related to an EPAC storm and won't really be an issue.

The Canadian, again in the last few frames, shows something in the NE Gulf, hitting the Panhandle.

I hate to be the old grumpy one, but right now no reliable model is showing anything in the Western Caribbean.

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[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion about this by Rob of Crownweather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7363

[Nimbus]

Watch the long water vapor loop, there is dry Texas air retrograding east across the Gulf of Mexico this week. Probably some energy from the Pacific will cross next week somewhere. Could fire up off Belize or even as far south as Panama, S Florida has the higher probability of being effected IMOATT.

[Dean4Storms]

Both GFS and ECM 12z are focusing the energy moreso in the BOC then driving it NE. ECM has a developing Low 1005mb north of the Yucatan @ 240hr. Also showing an east coast ridge extending from the Carolina's down across north Florida, could help in a baroclinic driven Low to take shape.

[NDG]

Why makes you think that it would be baroclinic in nature if it will not be attached to a cold front coming out of the deep tropics?

[Hurricaneman]

Both GFS and ECM 12z are focusing the energy moreso in the BOC then driving it NE. ECM has a developing Low 1005mb north of the Yucatan @ 240hr. Also showing an east coast ridge extending from the Carolina's down across north Florida, could help in a baroclinic driven Low to take shape.

I'm thinking more along the lines of a typical June Tropical storm, wet and windy on the east side while the west side is dry or has lighter precipitation due to drier air coming into the gulf with the trough

[Aric Dunn]

The cmc solution with something developing off the se coast of fl maybe a possibility.. though low. the convection being enhanced by upper divergence and already a weak mid lvl rotation off miami. not likely but not out of the realm..


also you all notice the nhc track for td2 in epac.. that could be out first system if it can hold together and reform in the boc.

[N2FSU]

Today's 12Z GFS shows development starting in the BOC at 120 hrs. Perhaps from newly named TD TWO-E crossing over from the E Pac?

[SouthDadeFish]

This will be interesting, especially if the low crosses the "skinnier" part of Mexico:

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible if it makes it to the BOC without discontinuation of advisories that this may still be Barbara if it reorganizes and hits somewhere in the Gulf making Andrea not be used until a later system

[Aric Dunn]

Is it possible if it makes it to the BOC without discontinuation of advisories that this may still be Barbara if it reorganizes and hits somewhere in the Gulf making Andrea not be used until a later system

no it would be renamed.

[N2FSU]

This will be interesting, especially if the low crosses the "skinnier" part of Mexico:

Yes it will be, and that track seems to coincide with what the GFS is showing.

[NDG]

CPC's latest outlook for the tropics:

[cycloneye]

CPC's latest outlook for the tropics:

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... e267d7.png

Here is the text from them.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

The Week-2 outlook is based largely on the expectation of a renewed organization of the MJO with its enhanced phase centered across Africa propagating eastward into the Indian Ocean. Low frequency variability and model guidance are also used to create the outlook. Above-average (below-average) rainfall is favored across much of the western Indian Ocean (western Pacific) due to the forecast MJO phase. Uncertainty with respect to the MJO leads to reduced confidence in these areas. Wetter-than-average conditions are also favored across parts of western and central Africa based largely on MJO composites. The Caribbean is forecast to remain active into Week-2, with the threat of TC development lingering near the Yucatan Peninsula