Texas Spring 2013

[Ntxw]

Very interesting that the models did not handle the Baja low well at all. Feels like a tropical air mass out there! Glad central and south Texas folks are getting much wanted rain. Stalled backdoor front hopefully will focus more convection the next several days. QPF trends definitely have looked better.

[somethingfunny]

This AFD from FWD written back on Tuesday seems kinda relevant today.


A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
IMPULSES IN THIS UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM...BUT MANY TIMES IN THE PAST THIS WEEKEND HAS TURNED OUT TO
BE A STORMY ONE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SAT-MON DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

[South Texas Storms]

This AFD from FWD written back on Tuesday seems kinda relevant today.


A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
IMPULSES IN THIS UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM...BUT MANY TIMES IN THE PAST THIS WEEKEND HAS TURNED OUT TO
BE A STORMY ONE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SAT-MON DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

I was just thinking about that sf!

[Portastorm]

What a difference a year makes. Last year, Memorial Day weekend in Austin was brutally hot and dusty dry. This year ... we're under a Flash Flood Watch with a rain-filled radar! Personally, I prefer this year over last.

[South Texas Storms]

Very dangerous situation ongoing in San Antonio right now. We are currently under a Flash Flood Emergency as much of the city has received 6-10 inches of rain so far today and it's still raining. As of 7:50 am, the San Antonio International Airport has received 7.11 inches of rain so far today. It is already the 3rd wettest day all-time at SA!

[Ntxw]

Stay safe down there South Texas Storms! FW mentioned this system taking warm core characteristics. A couple more of these meandering the next few months and we will be alright . I'll post some updated rainfall totals year to date for various cities once this system has exited the state. SA definitely will end up big winners as well as Austin with healthy surpluses. Surprising little system that no model seemed to get right, not even close.

[weatherdude1108]

Both my dad and brother in SA have received at least 7 inches. My brother had to empty his gauge because it only goes to 5. I have received 2 inches. Have standing water in backyard usual low spots. Here is a blurb from this morning's discussion:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR FFA ISSUANCE AS HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS UNFOLDED RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING. WARM CORE PROCESSES HAVE A CHANCE TO PEAK AND
SUBSIDE WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASED ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...BUT THE
RAINS RECEIVED LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LEFT
EFFECTIVE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCES TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH AND TO NEAR
ZERO AROUND SAN ANTONIO...AS LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER RISES IN THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA ARE BEHAVING AS A FLASH
FLOOD AND ARE REACHING HISTORICAL RECORDS AS SEEN AT THE SAN
ANTONIO RIVER AT LOOP 410. STREAMFLOW CONCERNS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH IN THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE NNW/SSE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS DRIFTS NWD AT ONLY 15 MPH.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like another disturbance setting up shop tonight. I hope the lakes benefit! I think Travis has risen a foot at least since yesterday.
Medina really needs help! But we definitely don't want any loss of life or property!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

330 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF

OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

.ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AN AREA THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE ABUNDANT

TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE. THE FLOOD

POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO COMFORT TO

JOURDANTON LINE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH

8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SPOTTY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF

2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GENERALLY

EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

TXC013-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-149-171-177-187-209-255-259-

285-287-299-453-491-493-261300-

/O.EXT.KEWX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130526T1300Z/
ATASCOSA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-

FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-LAVACA-

LEE-LLANO-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...BASTROP...SAN ANTONIO...

BLANCO...BURNET...LOCKHART...NEW BRAUNFELS...CUERO...LA GRANGE...

FREDERICKSBURG...GONZALES...SEGUIN...SAN MARCOS...KARNES CITY...

BOERNE...HALLETTSVILLE...GIDDINGS...LLANO...AUSTIN...GEORGETOWN...

FLORESVILLE

330 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ATASCOSA...

BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...

DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...

KARNES...KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON

AND WILSON.

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* EXPECTED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT.

* DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT DEVELOP WILL

QUICKLY PRODUCE RUNOFF AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. RIVER RISES

HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND WILL BE PRONE TO

ADDITIONAL RAPID RISES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR

THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT

YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE

READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS

ISSUED.

[vbhoutex]

Currently everything strong is still centered around Victoria. I am surprised another FF warning has not been issued for that area. We have some light rains moving into the SW and W side of the metro, but nothing has reached my area yet. Not sure it will either as they seem to be weakening. Hello cap?

[weatherdude1108]

My brother mentioned he saw something about a tornado this morning in the San Antonio area. I saw nothing on the NWS site at the time about tornado warnings. But I did see this. No one in my family was near it. But -- SCARY!


724
NOUS44 KEWX 252128
PNSEWX
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-260930-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/25/13 LIVE OAK TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...
A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED THROUGH METRO SAN ANTONIO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE CELL PRODUCED A BRIEF TORNADO IN THE
SUBURB OF LIVE OAK.

.LIVE OAK TORNADO...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: MAY 25 2013
START TIME: 525 AM CDT
START LOCATION: 1.2 WSW LIVE OAK / BEXAR COUNTY / TX
START LAT/LON: 29.5498 / -98.3479

END DATE: MAY 25 2013
END TIME: 535 AM CDT
END LOCATION: 1.2 W LIVE OAK / BEXAR COUNTY / TX
END_LAT/LON: 29.53539 / -98.3483

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE BRIEF TORNADO DID MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF JUDSON ROAD AND WOODSRIM ST IN LIVE OAK. THE STUCCO
AND WOOD FACADE OF A MEDICAL BUILDING ON JUDSON ROAD WAS TOTALLY
PULLED OFF. SEVERAL POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED WITH TREES UPROOTED
AND MATURE OAK TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES TWISTED OFF SEVERAL OAK
TREES. A HOSPITAL HAD DAMAGE TO THE AIR CONDITIONING UNITS ON TOP OF
ITS ROOF AND HAD SOME BROKEN WINDOWS AND DOORS. AN ALUMINUM STORAGE
SHED BEHIND ONE HOME WAS BLOWN CLEARLY OVER TWO HOUSES BEFORE
LANDING IN THE BACKYARD OF A THIRD HOUSE.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH*|

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$

[Portastorm]

This is definitely concerning for the folks in San Antonio!

----------------------------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1027 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR A DISTURBING TREND FROM A
WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THE COMPLEX
WAS SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN FLARED
UP LATE THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM UVALDE TO
KERRVILLE. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING
ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS AND MOVING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE TRENDS
SINCE 9 AM HAVE EASED SLIGHTLY...THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THESE STORM AREAS CONVERGE OVER SAN ANTONIO...WHILE LIGHTER
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AUSTIN AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE RECONFIGURED TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
THREAT AREAS...AND TO EXTEND THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
HIGH PWAT VALUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FFA WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 6 PM...BUT THE HOPE IS THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL SUBSIDE A
FEW HOURS PRIOR.

[Ntxw]

It's been an odd couple of months. With the way the weather pattern is shaping up I am seeing shades of 2004. I'm not certain this is a good analog for summer yet but it's definitely in the growing pool. I can literally count the number of 90s in DFW so far this year with one hand, I hope this trend continues into summer. There's been warm/hot days yes in our state but so far it's been accompanied with high dew points and moisture vs the hot and dry.



Some rainfall totals to date as of this morning

DFW
Current: 12.92 inches
Average: 15.31 inches
Departure: -2.39 inches

IAH
Current: 9.32 inches
Average: 17.37 inches
Departure: -8.05 inches

AUS
Current: 15.18 inches
Average: 11.57 inches
Departure: +3.61 inches

SAT
Current: 19.77 inches
Average: 11.07 inches
Departure: +8.70 inches

[WeatherGuesser]

Search Continues for Teen Missing in...
ABC News - ‎34 minutes ago‎

The search intensified Sunday for a teenage boy believed to have been swept away by floodwaters as he tried to swim across a swollen creek near San Antonio, authorities said.

OK, seriously, WHY would anyone do that? Driving into it is one thing, but trying to SWIM it?

[vbhoutex]

Search Continues for Teen Missing in...
ABC News - ‎34 minutes ago‎

The search intensified Sunday for a teenage boy believed to have been swept away by floodwaters as he tried to swim across a swollen creek near San Antonio, authorities said.

OK, seriously, WHY would anyone do that? Driving into it is one thing, but trying to SWIM it?

I won't say what I am thinking, but his body has been found.

[Rgv20]

First mention of the Tropics this 2013 season by the NWS in Brownsville..

LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS...NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEND TO BRING THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY NORTHWARDS
AFFECTING SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[gboudx]

jeff mentioned it in his email this morning:

Tropics:

Eastern Pacific tropical system south of the central Mexican coast this morning is becoming well organized and it appears a tropical depression is forming. Global forecast models bring this system northward into the Mexican coast over the next few days possibly reaching tropical storm status. At least one hurricane model…GFDL…crosses the system still as a well defined circulation into the Bay of Campeche, while most other guidance dissipates it over Mexico. The GFS model forms a board low pressure trough over the Bay of Campeche in the extend and lingers it in that region for several days possibly as part of the Pacific system and part of the monsoon trough lifting slightly northward. The GFDL solution is likely too aggressive and will disregard in favor of the other global models showing developing troughing in the southwest Gulf this weekend into next week.

[weatherdude1108]

Wish we could get this to fall where it is needed most (over the Colorado and Medina watersheds).


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT MIDDAY EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN BAJA. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THIS TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY TO THE BIG BEND REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING...
PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO EJECT ANTICIPATED BURRO (MEXICAN
PLATEAU) CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOIST GULF FLOW
OVER FAR WEST PORTIONS BY LATE EVENING. 12Z KDRT SOUNDING PROG
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL CAP MAY BE BROKEN BY 06Z (1 AM) PROVIDING
FURTHER ASCENT AND INTENSIFICATION...AND WITH SURFACE CAPES FORECAST
NEAR 2,000+ STORMS WHICH DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THIS EVENING
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH SUCH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS. THE CONTINUED
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING UPPER JET WILL
SHIFT (MAINTAIN) THE DEVELOPING STORMS EAST OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
THIS DEVELOPING MCS WILL PUSH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...THEN INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 HILLS...70S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S EXCEPT LOW 90S RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SOME 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE
5 THSD FEET AND MODERATE INSTABILITIES...EXPECT TRANSITION TO A
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...FLOOD EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO BANDERA TO DERBY FOR TOMORROW (7AM TO 7PM)
DURING THE DAY. MORE DEFINITION WILL BE ADDED AND THE WATCH COULD BE
REDEFINED LATER WITH THE NEW 00Z MODEL DATA TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED FIVE INCH
AMOUNTS. AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES AND INSTABILITIES DECREASE...RAINS
WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW EVENING.

[Ntxw]

I am surprised EWX were that bullish on putting up flood watches. Most of the major guidance do not suggest much rainfall from MCS activity, more scattered in nature and agrees on about a quarter to maybe half an inch for central and south Texas. The better consolidation of a possible MCS will be NW to NC Texas, where the Euro and GFS paints up to an inch onwards to Oklahoma. This regarding the next 24-36 hours.

[SouthernMet]

Moderate Risk for Severe Storms, Super Cells & Tornadoes in OKC, Norman, Wichita, Wichita Falls & Childress. Slt Risk for DFW, San Antonio & Austin. Super cells may make it as far East as I-35 if Cap breaks. Low level jet & shear create a considerable threat for Strong Tornadoes in NW TX, Central & W OK. Stay tune for a possible major Severe Weather outbreak 

[Hurricaneman]

Search Continues for Teen Missing in...
ABC News - ‎34 minutes ago‎

The search intensified Sunday for a teenage boy believed to have been swept away by floodwaters as he tried to swim across a swollen creek near San Antonio, authorities said.

OK, seriously, WHY would anyone do that? Driving into it is one thing, but trying to SWIM it?

This is what we call a Darwin Award winner, what a tool for trying to swim a swollen river