2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[WeatherEmperor]

As the Bermuda High sits today, it appears that systems would steer in the direction of Florida and the GOM.


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif
http://imageshack.us/a/img208/1482/bh52913.gif

That looks like Sea Level Pressure. Arent hurricanes mostly steered by the mean levels like the 500mb level for example?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Riptide]

[StormTracker]

You beat me to it RT! So basically the same story?

[Riptide]

:uarrow: You beat me to it RT! So basically the same story?

The overall pattern argues for Florida and Gulf impact and a negligible impact to the rest of the Southeast due to a blocking ridge. Assuming there was a tropical cyclone threatening the area from the east. Though, the pattern will keep evolving indefinitely.

[StormTracker]

That's right on point with my thinking and as stated earlier by Hurricaneman, very similar to 2004's setup! But as you said, this pattern will continue to evolve!

[StormTracker]

It would be cool if we could get some snapshots of 2004's Bermuda high setup to see how they compare to this season!

[Riptide]

Hurricane Jeanne (2004)
http://archive.atmos.colostate.edu/ - Here is the site I used, the tropical MSLP plots only go back to 2007.

[StormTracker]

Cool! Thanks for that!

[Decomdoug]

Unisys Weather has an extensive archive of past Hurricanes going back to 1851 as well as an archive of surface maps, upper air charts and infrared sat. images going back to 2004.

http://weather.unisys.com/archives.php

Would take some time to go back and find the 500mb setup in the Atlantic for June 2004.
I can't today, busy schedule.

[NDG]

As the Bermuda High sits today, it appears that systems would steer in the direction of Florida and the GOM.


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif
http://imageshack.us/a/img208/1482/bh52913.gif

That looks like Sea Level Pressure. Arent hurricanes mostly steered by the mean levels like the 500mb level for example?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

You are correct, surface highs do not steer tropical systems that have developed already, mid levels steerings in general is what for the most part dictate where storms move.

[cycloneye]

This is the first time this year that a big sal outbreak occurs in the Tropical Atlantic. This for sure will cool a little bit the MDR waters. Normally,June and July are the months when most of the outbreaks occur.

[StormTracker]

Unisys Weather has an extensive archive of past Hurricanes going back to 1851 as well as an archive of surface maps, upper air charts and infrared sat. images going back to 2004.

http://weather.unisys.com/archives.php

Would take some time to go back and find the 500mb setup in the Atlantic for June 2004.
I can't today, busy schedule.

Thanks for that Decomdoug!!!

[weatherwindow]

That's right on point with my thinking and as stated earlier by Hurricaneman, very similar to 2004's setup! But as you said, this pattern will continue to evolve!

Good morning ST....similiar to 2004 however a significant difference in that in 2004 a deep layer high was centered over New England and persisted thru September. This was the most significant element in the steering profile over the far Western Atlantic. The Bermuda high was actually a bit further east in 04 however that position was still bit west of the climo average for Sept...Rich

[dexterlabio]

Last time I saw people discussing about the MJO's arrival in the Atlantic/Caribbean...with GFS and Euro showing quite different scenarios.. Right now a stronger MJO pulse has emerged in the Indian Ocean and is in Phase 2.

I wonder if the GFS forecast for the past week will still happen...or the MJO will completely restart in the Indian Ocean, as what the Euro has been forecasting. Though a strong MJO pulse in the Atlantic may not be needed anymore to spawn the first tropical cyclone of the season, as there's something already going on in the BoC...

[Hurricaneman]

The current tropical wave west of Africa could be a sign of a very active Cape Verde season shaping up, hopefully most if not all of them are fish

[dexterlabio]

If the strong MJO pulse emerged in the Atlantic as predicted last week, then the area of disturbed weather off the gulf could have easily spawned the first named storm this year, and it could possibly become a stronger system in the coming days or even a hurricane. Now it seems that the Euro was right and the MJO has restarted over the Indian Ocean...

Though it is safe to say that there will be plenty of rains for Florida and nearby areas with that moisture spreading over the gulf.

[falcon]

Any toughts on the noticeable MDR cooling?

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro almost nailed the MJO forecast while the GFS was out to lunch, so if we go by the Euro I would look for the next development between June 25th and July 4th, but that could change

[cycloneye]

The Vertical Instability in the MDR is near normal compared with last year that was below normal. This may be a good sign that the deep tropics will be busy,of course if this continues and is combined with other favorable factors like the warm sst's and anomalies and lower pressures in MDR.

[cycloneye]

If this pattern stays without much change thru the peak of the season (August,September and October) then it will be an ominous one for the U.S coastline and for the Caribbean.