Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

[SouthernMet]

TORNADO WATCH 239 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

ALFALFA BLAINE DEWEY
ELLIS HARPER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO COMANCHE COTTON
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KIOWA TILLMAN

IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA

BECKHAM CUSTER ROGER MILLS
WASHITA

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN TEXAS

FOARD HARDEMAN WICHITA
WILBARGER

New Tornado Watch for most of OK

[wx247]

Squall line west of OKC is being warned for 70 mph winds and quarter sized hail. Moving at a pretty good clip.

[Bunkertor]

413
WFUS53 KGID 292143
TORGID
NEC081-292215-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0024.130529T2143Z-130529T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STOCKHAM...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF YORK....AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES
AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.
FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT
TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...STOCKHAM...
HAMPTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 333 AND 341.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Today should continue to be quite active in the hail department, but there will be far less tornadoes than originally anticipated. We've got the dreaded veer-back-veer wind profile across the Moderate risk area, and the cap broke much sooner than forecast; both of these lead to messy storm modes/linear cells. That begin said, tornadoes remain very much in play, a couple of which may be strong.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Things have really started spinning up in Nebraska in the last hour or so.

[Bunkertor]

I have two NE TV stations on - no coverage

[apocalypt-flyer]

Tornado warnings north and south of AlbaNY.

Some more are popping up over Western Kansas.

[Cyclenall]

but there will be far less tornadoes than originally anticipated. We've got the dreaded veer-back-veer wind profile across the Moderate risk area, and the cap broke much sooner than forecast; both of these lead to messy storm modes/linear cells. That begin said, tornadoes remain very much in play, a couple of which may be strong.

What a shock, far less anticipated tornadoes, every time I turn around its the same thing. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the number of tornadoes (not telling you that, you know this) as we're up to 12 tornado reports (seemingly all in NE for some reason) and have been getting a lot of TOR warnings so far today. The atmosphere wasn't suppose to have as much instability as the previous few days yet the cap broke that easy? Confused on that one. I don't see many sups though, and looking for the strong tornadoes too.

TORNADO WARNING
NEC023-037-292330-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0006.130529T2303Z-130529T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
603 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 600 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RISING CITY...
OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING
DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVID CITY...BELLWOOD...OCTAVIA AND RICHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 9719 4137 9691 4118 9720 4122 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 215DEG 19KT 4124 9723

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

DERGAN

Hopefully those in Rising City rise to the occasion and take cover.

[TwisterFanatic]

Didn't help that clouds covered Western OK/KS all night and into the afternoon.

[wx247]

Squall line across SE KS/NE OK is producing wind damage in its path. 70 mph winds being warned for in this region.

[Cyclenall]

Didn't help that clouds covered Western OK/KS all night and into the afternoon.

I thought I read that they dispersed by late morning? I couldn't check myself because I wasn't at a computer.

Here is a snippet from the SPC discussion on Wednesday morning:

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DODGE CITY...CHILDRESS AND LAWTON
SHOW LOADED-GUN SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3500 J/KG...0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM. THIS
IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ROBUST UPDRAFT THAT
INITIATES. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT BECOME DOMINANT. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE
DRYLINE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR DODGE CITY SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND WRN OK TO AROUND CHILDRESS WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LOCALLY
BACKED. DUE TO IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS...A 15 PERCENT
TORNADO CONTOUR HAS BEEN ADDED FROM SW KS SWD INTO NW TX WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING. SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOS.

This was easily the most aggressive and bullish SPC outlook of 2013 for Wednesday. I don't remember seeing "Loaded Gun" being stated in one of these. As of midnight, there have been 0 tornado reports in OK and some on the eastern fringe of the MOD risk area in KS and parts of NE. The greatest cluster of tornado reports were outside of the MOD in NE to the east. The tornadoes that did form were mostly weak landspout type. This is in the top 4 largest busts I've ever seen, wow! This seems to happen 70% of the time in meteorology, the most hyped or expected large events do nothing while the inverse is true.

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi 17h - So far 40 of the 100 plus tornadoes forecasted by _________ from Sat.
Big ticket severe weather days today, tomorrow plains.

I think the previous two days were big tickets. Wednesday was a dirty and messy ticket.

[wx247]

Only a slight risk across the Southern Plains for today, but still should be an active weather day. That will depend, of course, on how worked over the atmosphere is from the morning clouds and storms.

Highest threat area looks to include the Tulsa and OKC metros.

[Cyclenall]

There was actually a report or two in OK that came in late after midnight for a tornado but still, that outlook did not fare well. Now onto today:

MOD issued again:

SPC AC 301254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK AND KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE SRN PLNS NNE INTO THE MID MO AND MID/UPR MS VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE WY UPR LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E ACROSS SD THIS PERIOD AS ATTENDANT
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS
TODAY...AND NNE ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY/UPR MS VLY TNGT/EARLY FRI.
STRENGTHENED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF TROUGH --- WITH 500 MB SPEEDS AOA
50 KTS --- WILL MAINTAIN LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLNS...WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW REMAINS NEARLY STNRY ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT LINE ARCING SSW FROM THE ND/SD LOW
SHOULD ADVANCE ESE ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE FARTHER S...A DRY LINE WILL MIX E INTO SW KS...WRN
OK...AND W CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVE. THE TRUE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ND/SD LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY ACROSS NRN
MN/LK SUPERIOR. BUT A SHALLOWER WARM FRONT-LIKE FEATURE ---
ESSENTIALLY THE BOUNDARY MARKING THE SW EDGE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW --- SHOULD EDGE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
OK...PERHAPS REACHING PARTS OF AR AND SW MO BY EVE. THE
COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT...THE DRY LINE...AND THE SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE ALL MAY SERVE TO FOCUS STRONG TO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY INTO TNGT.

...S CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
ARGUABLY THE MOST INTENSE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL...SVR THREAT
APPEARS TO BE THAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD STORMS FORMING
ALONG THE DRY LINE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH SRN
FRINGE OF UPR TROUGH. GIVEN 40+ KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR /WITH A SIZABLE
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT/...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/
...AND A DEEP EML...SETUP COULD YIELD LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES.

BASED ON CURRENT AND FCST AFTN SFC CONDITIONS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM S CNTRL KS
THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK AND WRN AR INTO N TX. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO
FORM...AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...REMAIN SUSTAINED...THE
WIND/THERMODYNAMIC SETUP LIKELY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY MAXIMIZE NEAR SHALLOW WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE OVER CNTRL/ERN OK...WHERE SFC FLOW IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED. IN ADDITION...IF STORMS LINGER INTO THE
EVE...THEY WILL FIND THEMSELVES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
LOW-LVL SHEAR AS THE LLJ NOT ONLY STRENGTHENS NOCTURNALLY...BUT ALSO
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW OVER THE GRT
BASIN.

UNCERTAINTIES DO REMAIN REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE AREA
OF GREATEST BUOYANCY AS /1/ HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY
/ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL OK SWD/ IN WAKE OF PASSING NEGATIVE-TILT
TROUGH...AND /2/ EML CAP WILL BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY S OF THE RED
RVR. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE HIGH-END HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH
ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM...A MODERATE RISK SEEMS WARRANTED
ATTM.

...MID/UPR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
MODERATE SFC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF MO...IA...IL...AND
WI TODAY...AHEAD OF REMNANT MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REGION
WILL LIE ON ERN FRINGE OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. WITH MORNING RAOB AND VWP DATA SHOWING
MODERATE TO STRONG...DEEP SSW FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
REGION...AND WITH WIND FIELDS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
TODAY...SETUP MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP FLOW. WITH
AMPLE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH DMGG
WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES DESPITE COMPARATIVELY MODEST
BUOYANCY /SBCAPE 1000-2000 J PER KG/.

...N CNTRL PLNS/MID MO VLY THIS AFTN...
WDLY SCTD STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS...NEB...WRN IA AND SW MN...WHERE DEEP
ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DCVA AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH. WHILE WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN COOL MID-LVL TEMPS.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 05/30/2013

A strongly worded SPC discussion again for today which is no surprise. If you look at the first one posted early this morning, there is even a reference to yesterday's bust which they make points on as to why that same thing won't happen again today. Its very rare to see the SPC callback to previous day unless convection leftovers is involved.

Friday is also starting to look very dangerous as well, even more so than first indicated near the start of this week. The potential is present for all hell to break loose on both days if things "go as planned."



This was from late last night, this has got to be the ultimate trolling from mother nature. The most powerful supercell that I've ever seen depicted by these radar sim products to date with it showing even a little hook at times on such thing, insane...smack in the center where Moore and OKC is located! Like, there is nothing else in NA like that at the time and the one place its sitting is on top of that area...when the people of Moore see this they're going to be pissed! BTW, this product has been very accurate before so its not just some random crap.

[WeatherGuesser]

Under the Slight areas for Fri and Sat, so we'll see. I could use rain, but I sure don't need severe anything.

[TwisterFanatic]

Clouds are already breaking up much better than they did yesterday, sun is out in Central Oklahoma. CAPE already over 3000 around the OKC area.

[TwisterFanatic]

There was concern over the lowered dewpoints last night because of the heavy rain in Oklahoma, but that is no longer a question, dewpoints are back up into the lower 70's.

[Ntxw]

There was concern over the lowered dewpoints last night because of the heavy rain in Oklahoma, but that is no longer a question, dewpoints are back up into the lower 70's.

It's that time of year when dews easily recover. As in a previous post, each day is different and we should view it as a fresh set up. Today will be different compared to yesterday as there was a better shortwave yesterday which produced numerous thunderstorms that congealed. Today's piece of energy is weaker however the atmosphere is much more unstable. We will get less coverage of storms but more likely the ones that pop will be discrete and much more dangerous. Central, south-central, and eastern Oklahoma are the primed targets modelling is focusing on.

[Bunkertor]

SPC AC 301626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SRN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SYNOPSIS...

A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN PLAINS WILL PIVOT NEWD THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER-MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH
BASE. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE MID-MS/LOWER-MO VALLEYS NEWD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL SD THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/KS TO A
SECONDARY LOW OVER N-CNTRL OK WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EWD. THE SWRN
EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT FROM THE N-CNTRL OK LOW INTO WRN TX WILL
TRANSITION TO A DRYLINE WHICH WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN OK AND
W-CNTRL TX TODAY. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE ALONG WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLING SWD THROUGH NRN OK WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
THE FOCAL POINTS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

...SRN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING A 700-500-MB LAPSE RATE IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM ATOP A
DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO
OF AROUND 15 G/KG. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES/WARMING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL LESSEN LAPSE RATES IN THE MIDLEVELS
GENERALLY S OF 1-40...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMPENSATE WITH
MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND E OF DRYLINE.

THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
CAP OBSERVED ON THE 12Z OUN/LZK SOUNDINGS MAY PERMIT ONGOING TSTMS
ACROSS ERN OK TO PERSIST EWD INTO AR...WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF
THIS REGIME POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL/ERN KS
INTO WRN MO. THE RISK FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
THE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...WHILE
ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS MOVING
INTO AR.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
REGARD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OWING TO RISING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS
SUCH...STRONG HEATING W OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM
FOSTERING ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AND
BECOME SUSTAINED...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA.


...MID-MS VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

ONE OR MULTIPLE BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TODAY
DOWNSTREAM FROM KS/WRN MO MCS AS HEIGHT FALLS ACT ON A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ AIR
MASS. OBSERVED AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT A VEER-BACK
SIGNATURE WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXED STORM MODES WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST...LOW LCL
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR
LINE-RELATED MESO-VORTICES.

...MID-MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

RELATIVELY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALIGN WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO YIELD POCKETS OF
MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED TSTMS SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 05/30/2013

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[TwisterFanatic]

Also should be noted, aside from the threats of Large Hail, Winds, and Tornadoes.

There is a very high flooding risk over NE Oklahoma. Widespread 4-7 inches is likely, and possibly up to 10 inches in locations through Saturday.

Skiatook, OK has already received 4.85 inches in the past 24 hours.

[Bunkertor]

What lead to the bust, yesterday ? For a good part of the time, the map looked like this ...