Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Here is another excerpt from the 8 AM PDT discussion.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A
SERIOUS CONCERN. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

[OuterBanker]

I think what the gfs and euro have heading to Fl in 10 is Andrea not Barbara. I think Barbara will head west after a short stint north and not amount to much. GFS is an interesting scenario. It looks like a Pensacola landfall then north then taking a hard right to Va/NC exit. This time of year it should be right weighted meaning it would be a soaker in the southeast. By contrast if it exited off the north Fl east coast and up the coast it would be sunny and calm north of Fl.

Btw, after I though about it I agree with the TPC for keeping the same name as storms transition from one basin to another. It will not affect the ace because it would have gotten a name anyway. And years later we would know that it was of epac origin because of the name. Think about it, how many of us remember the name of a north atlantic storm that was an epac storm.

[Aric Dunn]

and poof. lol

[NDG]

Yeah, it looks like that whatever was left of it is quickly dying out, I really do not see a surface circulation reflected underneath the H85 circulation, I see a lot of outflow boundaries.
The GFS and Euro do seem to have been correct of it dying out in the BOC.

[StormTracker]

No Bones? Did someone eat the Bones?("I ate the bones?")
I guess it's to early for Bones to make an appearance over nothing! LOL!
I'm sorry mods, I couldn't help it! And now, back on topic...

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS still toward the Panhandle but not nearly as bullish come next weekend.

[ronjon]

12z CMC super bullish on GOM tropical cyclone but it is the canadian.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggemtropical850mbVortSLPGGEMLoop.html

[Hurricane Alexis]

12z CMC super bullish on GOM tropical cyclone but it is the canadian.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggemtropical850mbVortSLPGGEMLoop.html

Didn't the CMC get a huge upgrade that was supposed to improve it's performance by a vast amount?

[cycloneye]

I have said that I don't trust the models past 144 hours but I am making an exception because is the first time the ECMWF really develops in the BOC and at 240 hours is in this position.12z run.

[ronjon]

Here's the 12z ECM loop. Bullish with a 999 mb cyclone into Gulfport. Not sure if I see something coming in that far west but its still 10 days out.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm... convection coming back a little... surface obs indicate a closed surface circ still exists... maybe its last gasp... trying to hang on.. lol

[cycloneye]

hmmm... convection coming back a little... surface obs indicate a closed surface circ still exists... maybe its last gasp... trying to hang on.. lol

What is your take on the Euro coming onboard with GOM development?

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm... convection coming back a little... surface obs indicate a closed surface circ still exists... maybe its last gasp... trying to hang on.. lol

What is your take on the Euro coming onboard with GOM development?

along way out. but it may not take nearly that long to get going there are a lot of variables at play right now and persistent convection is what we are looking for. I think the models are latching on to something forming but think they can resolve the details yet.

[cycloneye]

hmmm... convection coming back a little... surface obs indicate a closed surface circ still exists... maybe its last gasp... trying to hang on.. lol

What is your take on the Euro coming onboard with GOM development?

along way out. but it may not take nearly that long to get going there are a lot of variables at play right now and persistent convection is what we are looking for. I think the models are latching on to something forming but think they can resolve the details yet.

I would like to see the timeframe narrowed to less than 144 hours to be a true believer on both intensity and tracks.

[NDG]

One thing for sure that we now see some agreement between both the GFS and Euro of showing some sort of energy lifting out of the BOC/southern GOM by mid to late next week to get this over with, lol.
IMO, it will be a sheared system, possibly a weak to moderate tropical storm.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing for sure that we now see some agreement between both the GFS and Euro of showing some sort of energy lifting out of the BOC/southern GOM by mid to late next week to get this over with, lol.
IMO, it will be a sheared system, possibly a weak to moderate tropical storm.

For sure, upper level winds and SST's will prolly be the hold back. If this were later June it might be a different animal. As it stands it looks like anywhere between New Orleans to Tampa is the ultimate landfall if something does form. This would likely be a bigger rain issue rather than wind and surge.

[Alyono]

This looks to be a disturbance in the Caribbean that the models are developing.

High res ECMWF has a 40-45 KT TS striking near the mouth of the Mississippi River

[Stormlover2012]

Long way out, just one run from euro showing something.

[NDG]

Long way out, just one run from euro showing something.

This is not just one run shown by the euro, last night's run also shows cyclogenisis in the BOC for early next week and to pull northward, just not as strong as it shows in its 12z run.

Edit: Today's 12z Euro run was at least the 5th run in a row showing lowering pressures in the BOC/southern GOM next week, good sign that something at least weak could form.

[Hurricaneman]

the 18zGFS makes landfall north of Tampa at 192hrs as a 1005mb weak tropical storm or tropical depression, but as one knows it intensity forecasts cant be taken seriously and most times the GFS under develops systems while at times the Euro goes crazy with intensities, so going by that Im going to guess a 50 to 60mph TS in the big bend of Florida as of now.