Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

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Bunkertor
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#201 Postby Bunkertor » Fri May 31, 2013 3:43 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:For anyone reading in the warned areas, please be very cautious today and listen closely to NWS watches and warnings. Today will probably get ugly very quickly. Cap should break soon.


@South : Short question. I thought the cap is done when LCL = LFC in the soundings ...

Edit: OK, that was my fault. I got the wrong date, when i posted about the Cap. Sorry for that.
Last edited by Bunkertor on Fri May 31, 2013 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#202 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri May 31, 2013 3:43 pm

The area has been heating all day this will be a totally different situation then Thursday.
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#203 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri May 31, 2013 3:46 pm

CAPE is downright ridiculous. 5500 CAPE on the I-35 corridor.
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#204 Postby Bunkertor » Fri May 31, 2013 3:52 pm

Only -6 CINH @ OUN
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#205 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri May 31, 2013 3:52 pm

Yesh I just looked at the CAPE that is insane.
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#206 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri May 31, 2013 3:54 pm

Potential for today to be very bad. Remember, the most favorable conditions for tornadoes will be later, around 00Z when the LLJ begins to kick in tandem with strong CAPE. Nonetheless, they can still form at any time.
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#207 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri May 31, 2013 3:56 pm

The Torcon for OK is now a 7.
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#208 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri May 31, 2013 3:57 pm

SPC said storm initiation in OK around 21z(or 4PM), so shouldn't be long.
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#209 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri May 31, 2013 3:57 pm

Check out surface CAPE from experimental RAP:

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Sorry for the poor quality, but that highest contour is 7,000 J/kg....
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#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 31, 2013 4:02 pm

The longer we wait, the worse this could get...a sense of dread is developing...
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#211 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri May 31, 2013 4:04 pm

Will these violent tornadoes go into the nighttime hrs?
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Re:

#212 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri May 31, 2013 4:06 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Check out surface CAPE from experimental RAP:

Image

Sorry for the poor quality, but that highest contour is 7,000 J/kg....


That's May 3rd, 1999 type CAPE
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#213 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 31, 2013 4:08 pm

EF-5bigj wrote:Will these violent tornadoes go into the nighttime hrs?


Probably, especially in the Tulsa area.
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#214 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri May 31, 2013 4:08 pm

EF-5bigj wrote:Will these violent tornadoes go into the nighttime hrs?


Hard to say which tornadoes will be violent, but the tornado watch does last until 12:00AM CDT.
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#215 Postby EF-5bigj » Fri May 31, 2013 4:10 pm

I may not be in the area but your right the sense that something bad will happen is building. The atmosphere there has just been getting increasingly unstable all day.
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#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 31, 2013 4:13 pm

Tornado Warning just issued for Independence, KS - between Tulsa and Kansas City.
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#217 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri May 31, 2013 4:14 pm

18Z HRRR thought the cap would have broke by now.
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#218 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 31, 2013 4:15 pm

The clouds are rapidly developing west of I-44. Lots of TCUs.
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#219 Postby Cyclenall » Fri May 31, 2013 4:18 pm

Well after yesterday I thought maybe today will stink too or something but now after reading everyone's concerns, it could be a major tornado outbreak, for the first time this year at least. Some similarities to May 24, 2011 is the vibe I'm getting but that started eariler. I'm pretty disappointed at the early convection in IL, IN, and OH :cry: .

Initiation is starting in southern KS already and should start anytime now in OK.
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Re:

#220 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 31, 2013 4:21 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:18Z HRRR thought the cap would have broke by now.


The HRRR has not been a reliable model for convection this season in the southern plains. It keeps creating erroneous storms in areas that are capped and tends to overdo it.
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