Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
@ChaserCentral: "St. Louis NWS seeking shelter due to tornadic debris signature approaching their office - take shelter if in the path. #mowx"
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260...263...
VALID 010005Z - 010130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 260...263...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND FROM SERN KS THROUGH CNTRL
MO NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL
AND SCNTRL IL WHERE A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 01Z.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS PERSISTS FROM SERN KS THROUGH
CNTRL MO. ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE...AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SW-NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY.
VWP DATA SHOW VERY FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...AND BOW ECHO STORM NEAR ST. LOUIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
SCNTRL IL.
..DIAL.. 06/01/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260...263...
VALID 010005Z - 010130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 260...263...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND FROM SERN KS THROUGH CNTRL
MO NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL
AND SCNTRL IL WHERE A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 01Z.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS PERSISTS FROM SERN KS THROUGH
CNTRL MO. ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE...AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SW-NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY.
VWP DATA SHOW VERY FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...AND BOW ECHO STORM NEAR ST. LOUIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
SCNTRL IL.
..DIAL.. 06/01/2013
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
@KatyJBlakey: "TORNADO EMERGENCY: Traffic stopped along I-240, people are abandoning cars seeking shelter beneath underpasses."
KFOR - Tornado crossing I-35 in South Moore/north Norman.
KFOR - Tornado crossing I-35 in South Moore/north Norman.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
SPC AC 010042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL TO NERN
OK...EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO...EXTREME NWRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN OK TO SRN
LOWER MI AND NWRN OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY TO
WRN/NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NERN SD IS FCST TO PERSIST AS
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...BUT DEAMPLIFY INTO
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY AROUND 12Z. TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE REGION BY
THEN. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM
IA NEWD ACROSS LM TO NRN ONT...WHILE SWRN LIMB OF SAME JET CORE
WEAKENS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS. AMONG NUMEROUS...MOSTLY SUBTLE AND
SMALL PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD...MOST
PRONOUNCED BEING SHORTWAVE OVER ERN CO AND MCV OVER OH. OH FEATURE
WILL MOVE NEWD...PRECEDED BY CONVECTION WITH MRGL WIND/HAIL THREAT
FOR 2-3 MORE HOURS. DCVA RELATED TO APCHG CENTRAL HIGH-PLAINS
TROUGH MAY AID IN PERSISTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IN SRN
PLAINS/OZARKS.
AT SFC...PRIMARY CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER SERN ND AND SHOULD
CLOSELY FOLLOW MID-UPPER VORTICITY MAX INTO MN OVERNIGHT. SFC COLD
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...IA
AND NRN MO OVERNIGHT...AND SLOWLY SEWD OVER PORTIONS WRN MO...SERN
KS...AND NRN/WRN OK. DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z
WITH INITIAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW OVER SWRN OK SWWD
BETWEEN SNK-SWW AND INTO TX BIG BEND REGION. SECONDARY DRYLINE WAS
EVIDENT ON MESONET DATA AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY ALONG WRN EDGE OF
UPPER 60S/70S F DEW POINT AIR MASS FROM E OF HBR SWD TO NEAR RPH.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD RETREAT/CONSOLIDATE THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING...MERGING WITH SFC FRONTAL ZONE OVER SWRN OK.
...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION AND IL...
SUBSTANTIAL SVR EVENT IS UNDERWAY OVER THIS CORRIDOR WITH MULTIPLE
TORNADIC OR POTENTIALLY TORNADIC TSTMS FROM SWRN MO TO CENTRAL OK.
THIS INCLUDES SUPERCELL CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH OKC METRO AREA WITH
HISTORY OF MULTIPLE-VORTEX TORNADO PRODUCTION. BACKED SFC WINDS AND
RELATED ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOW WELL UNDERWAY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LEADING TO EFFECTIVE SRH
300-400 J/KG THAT COULD REACH 500 J/KG WHILE INFLOW PARCELS STILL
ARE SFC-BASED. REF WWS 260...262...263...265...AND RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATED DETAILS OVER THIS CORRIDOR.
THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING-WIND
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM CENTRAL OK TO SRN MO AND MOVE
EWD ACROSS NERN OK...SRN MO AND SRN IL. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
LEWP/BOW FEATURES STILL WILL POSE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH
MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR NEARLY SFC-BASED WELL INTO TONIGHT SINCE DIABATIC STABILIZATION
OF VERY HIGH-THETAE INFLOW LAYER WILL BE SLOW/GRADUAL.
MEANWHILE...MLCAPE 2500-4500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH EVENING.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...WI...LS...UPPER MI...
BKN BANDS OF TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WITH SEWD EXTENT. HAIL HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARY SVR
THREAT FROM HERE ON...THOUGH SOME ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE ALIGNMENT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN SUPPORT OF
GUST THREAT. REF WW 261 AND LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERALL SVR HAZARD SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z.
...NRN INDIANA...
SMALL BUT SVR COMPLEX OF TSTMS SHOULD PROCEED ENEWD ACROSS NRN
INDIANA WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR
HAIL. ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS BEING LIMITED BY LACK OF STG MID-UPPER
WINDS...FORWARD PROPAGATION AND PRECIP-LOADING EFFECTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO GUST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. REF WW 264 AND
ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL TO NERN
OK...EXTREME SERN KS...SWRN MO...EXTREME NWRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN OK TO SRN
LOWER MI AND NWRN OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY TO
WRN/NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NERN SD IS FCST TO PERSIST AS
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX...BUT DEAMPLIFY INTO
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY AROUND 12Z. TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE REGION BY
THEN. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM
IA NEWD ACROSS LM TO NRN ONT...WHILE SWRN LIMB OF SAME JET CORE
WEAKENS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS. AMONG NUMEROUS...MOSTLY SUBTLE AND
SMALL PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD...MOST
PRONOUNCED BEING SHORTWAVE OVER ERN CO AND MCV OVER OH. OH FEATURE
WILL MOVE NEWD...PRECEDED BY CONVECTION WITH MRGL WIND/HAIL THREAT
FOR 2-3 MORE HOURS. DCVA RELATED TO APCHG CENTRAL HIGH-PLAINS
TROUGH MAY AID IN PERSISTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IN SRN
PLAINS/OZARKS.
AT SFC...PRIMARY CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER SERN ND AND SHOULD
CLOSELY FOLLOW MID-UPPER VORTICITY MAX INTO MN OVERNIGHT. SFC COLD
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...IA
AND NRN MO OVERNIGHT...AND SLOWLY SEWD OVER PORTIONS WRN MO...SERN
KS...AND NRN/WRN OK. DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z
WITH INITIAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW OVER SWRN OK SWWD
BETWEEN SNK-SWW AND INTO TX BIG BEND REGION. SECONDARY DRYLINE WAS
EVIDENT ON MESONET DATA AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY ALONG WRN EDGE OF
UPPER 60S/70S F DEW POINT AIR MASS FROM E OF HBR SWD TO NEAR RPH.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD RETREAT/CONSOLIDATE THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING...MERGING WITH SFC FRONTAL ZONE OVER SWRN OK.
...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION AND IL...
SUBSTANTIAL SVR EVENT IS UNDERWAY OVER THIS CORRIDOR WITH MULTIPLE
TORNADIC OR POTENTIALLY TORNADIC TSTMS FROM SWRN MO TO CENTRAL OK.
THIS INCLUDES SUPERCELL CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH OKC METRO AREA WITH
HISTORY OF MULTIPLE-VORTEX TORNADO PRODUCTION. BACKED SFC WINDS AND
RELATED ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOW WELL UNDERWAY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LEADING TO EFFECTIVE SRH
300-400 J/KG THAT COULD REACH 500 J/KG WHILE INFLOW PARCELS STILL
ARE SFC-BASED. REF WWS 260...262...263...265...AND RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATED DETAILS OVER THIS CORRIDOR.
THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING-WIND
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM CENTRAL OK TO SRN MO AND MOVE
EWD ACROSS NERN OK...SRN MO AND SRN IL. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
LEWP/BOW FEATURES STILL WILL POSE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH
MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR NEARLY SFC-BASED WELL INTO TONIGHT SINCE DIABATIC STABILIZATION
OF VERY HIGH-THETAE INFLOW LAYER WILL BE SLOW/GRADUAL.
MEANWHILE...MLCAPE 2500-4500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH EVENING.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...WI...LS...UPPER MI...
BKN BANDS OF TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WITH SEWD EXTENT. HAIL HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARY SVR
THREAT FROM HERE ON...THOUGH SOME ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE ALIGNMENT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN SUPPORT OF
GUST THREAT. REF WW 261 AND LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERALL SVR HAZARD SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 04Z.
...NRN INDIANA...
SMALL BUT SVR COMPLEX OF TSTMS SHOULD PROCEED ENEWD ACROSS NRN
INDIANA WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR
HAIL. ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS BEING LIMITED BY LACK OF STG MID-UPPER
WINDS...FORWARD PROPAGATION AND PRECIP-LOADING EFFECTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO GUST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. REF WW 264 AND
ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE.
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Re: Multi-day outbreak for most of this week
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
806 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
MOC183-189-010115-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-130601T0115Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
806 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ST. LOUIS AND ST.
CHARLES COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...
AT 800 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WELDON SPRING...
AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
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Re: Multi-day outbreak for most of this week
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT
* AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT
* AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
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TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3445
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
news9.com is showing alot of power flashes
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AdamFirst
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2491
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
- Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
http://fox2now.com/on-air/live-streaming/
St. Louis live stream
this station is in the firing line of the tornado...
St. Louis live stream
this station is in the firing line of the tornado...
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apocalypt-flyer
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:51 am
Re:
gboudx wrote:Fox News is showing Okc and it looks like night. Here in the metroplex there is still quite a bit of daylight. Are the storms that intense to make it look like night?
Storms and power's gone in quite a number of areas.
That looks REALLY rough i the St. Louis Airport/St. Charles area.
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