Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

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JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 29 2013
 

Significant Feature: An area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:  Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST WED MAY 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HAITI TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY TROUGHING THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PROMINENT FEATURE DURING THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS OVER THE LOCAL AREA EXCEPT FOR THE WEAK TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS BACK TO THE WESTERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHEN LOW PRESSURE COMES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
TOPS TO 51 KFT DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN RATES
IN A FEW PLACES EXCEEDING 5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AFTER
SUNSET. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ELSEWHERE LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A STEADY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EVERY AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. HEAVIER RAINS WITH WIDER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THEN WHEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT
ON SUNDAY AND TROUGHING ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO AID SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THOSE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WITH REGULARITY OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST THEY ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS THEY ENTER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ARE HAVING MINOR EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
HERE. NEVERTHELESS A WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY
TODAY SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY FOR AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED THEN.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR IN
SHRA/TSRA...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ THROUGH 29/21Z. MAINLY EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MORE OR LESS STEADY EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 21 KNOTS WILL
KEEP SEAS RUNNING AT 4 TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK OR NEXT...EXCEPT IN SMALL AREAS NEAR
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO WHERE WINDS NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 83 78 86 / 40 40 50 50
STT 78 80 79 84 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather will prevail in PR for the next few days with a mix of sun and scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST THU MAY 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT DISSIPATED QUICKLY.
ALSO...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN
THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET
TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION. MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

LOOKING AHEAD...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. CLIMATOLOGY IS IN FAVOR OF
DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE START THE NEW MONTH. ALSO...WE MAY SEE SOME
SAHARAN DUST APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL FORECAST AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC...AND SOME APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY EARLY JUNE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY GOOD WEATHER ALONG ALL COASTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THEREFORE...VCSH ARE POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH AND
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TKPK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX AND MAINLY EAST WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 40 50 50 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 40 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

Tropical Wave will arrive to the Lesser Antilles by Monday and move mainly south of PR by Tuesday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST THU MAY 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AFTER A WEAK RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIRECTLY AFTER...A MORE PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
HISPANIOLA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST TO THE MONA CHANNEL BY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN INVADES FROM THE WEST.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS GENERALLY ABLE TO FEND OFF THE
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS MAINTAINS THE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND CARRIES MOISTURE OUT OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 32 WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVER THE
CULEBRINAS AND ANASCO BASINS IN PUERTO RICO AS MINOR SHOWERS
POPPED UP ELSEWHERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM YABUCOA TO JAYUYA. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST A FEW HOURS BEYOND SUNSET TONIGHT. PATCHES
OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
SUFFICIENT TO FIRE OFF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF THE TIME ELSE WHERE. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY MODELS ARE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ON FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SOLUTION THOUGH MAY NOT HOLD VERY WELL...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
IN A CONTINUOUS STATE OF FLUX REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE...
POSSIBLY FROM BARBARA?...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WOULD KEEP
FLOW COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SOUTHEAST HERE. THEREFORE
WILL STAY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY BEYOND DAY 5 OR 6.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PR IN SHRA/TSRA...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
30/23Z. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...TNCM AND TKPK. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-20 KT FROM THE SFC UP TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY CONSTANT TRADE WINDS GENERATED BY THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE EXPOSE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 40 40 40 40
STT 77 88 78 88 / 30 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It will be a weekend with a mix of sun and scattered showers in the PR VI area. Watching for any tropical development in the Western Caribbean by next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST FRI MAY 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS TROUGH ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE/EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS TROUGH ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...
EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...W AND NW PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE/TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS INTENSIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WILL CAUSE BRIEF MVFR PERIODS ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS...IN PARTICULAR TISX/TIST AND TJSJ BEFORE 31/13Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS UNTIL
31/12Z...AFTER THAT EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS. SCT/NMRS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 31/16Z ACROSS
PR...WITH THE HEAVIEST TSRA ACROSS THE WEST AND INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILS.
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD AT JSJ WITH 13.65" SO FAR. ALSO...A RECORD RAINFALL OF
1.42 INCHES WAS SET AT SAN JUAN/P.R. YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 1.35 SET IN 1992.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 88 76 / 40 30 30 20
STT 88 78 88 79 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

We have Invest 90L in the Southern GOM. For more information go to the 90L thread at Active Storms/Invests forum.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI MAY 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER TUESDAY AS
THAT HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
MID LEVELS ARE MODERATELY MOIST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...WITH
GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS DOES LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAINTAINS
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH GOOD MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS OVER 50 THOUSAND FEET
GREW OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING UPWARDS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN SOME PLACES. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST FOR MANY WESTERN PUERTO RICO
MUNICIPALITIES. ELSEWHERE...NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT ALTHOUGH THERE
IS DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST...IT IS STRUGGLING TO COME IN AND
THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE ONSHORE OVER PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY SAINT CROIX. THE GFS IS
PROMISING LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS ON
SUNDAY DUE TO A DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT EXPECT VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BOTH OF THOSE DAYS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO BECAUSE OF INTENSE SOLAR
HEATING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ELSEWHERE IN PUERTO RICO. WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED...MOSTLY NIGHTTIME
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATE ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS STILL MORE SOUTHEASTERLY A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN
AND PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING
IS THEN EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE SHALLOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BEGIN A
SOMEWHAT DRIER EPISODE FOR THE ISLAND...WITH THE DRAWBACK OF
HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND MUCH OF THE NORTH
COAST AND SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA WILL CAUSE BRIEF MVFR PERIODS ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TILL
22Z ACROSS PR...WITH THE HEAVIEST TSRA ACROSS THE WEST AND
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLOUDINESS BEYOND 01/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN MORE OR LESS STEADY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS CAUSING SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXPOSED WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. AT THIS TIME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...AT 3 PM AST SAN JUAN HAD REGISTERED 0.61 INCHES AT
THE AIRPORT. THIS BRINGS THE MONTHLY TOTAL TO 14.26 INCHES FOR THE
MONTH OF MAY. EVEN WITH NO MORE RAIN THIS WILL MAKE IT THE THIRD
WETTEST MAY SINCE 1899 IN THE SAN JUAN AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 77 88 / 40 40 40 40
STT 78 88 79 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Officially,May 2013 was the third wettest on record in San Juan.

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 WILL END AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT
THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A variable weekend is expected in PR with a mix of sun and some scattered showers. For Monday thru Tuesday,a Tropical Wave will bring more showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SAT JUN 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
POLAR TROUGH ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMC AND SATELLITE DERIVED TPW INDICATE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS DECREASING FROM THE EAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WILL
HOVER AROUND 1.8 INCHES WITH OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
SUGGESTING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH MAYBE WITH NOT
AS MUCH AREAL COVERAGE AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOCAL EFFECTS. IN ADDITION...THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A 0-6KM STORM MOTION AND AVERAGE WIND
FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE WAST NORTHWEST ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

FOR SUNDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO HAVING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...THE EFFECT IT HAS ON THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAY BE
ALTERED BY THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND ALSO THE SAHARAN DUST THAT
IS APPROACHING. NAAPS FORECAST LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A
DECENT CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MAYBE A BIT BEFORE THE SAHARAN DUST.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE CONCENTRATION OF THE SAHARAN
DUST AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF IT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NW PR AFTER 01/16Z...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ
AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS 4-6 FT
AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS.


&&

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 ENDED AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 87 78 88 79 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

June 1 2013
 

Significant Feature: An area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

Here is the first Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2013 hurricane season. Let's be prepared for anything that mother nature has instored for us in the Caribbean and Central America.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDREA AN- DREE UH LORENZO LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY BAIR- REE MELISSA MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL SHAHN TAHL- NESTOR NES- TOR
DORIAN DOR- EE AN OLGA OAL- GUH
ERIN AIR- RIN PABLO PAHB- LO
FERNAND FAIR NAHN- REBEKAH REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE GA BREE ELL- SEBASTIEN SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TOH TANYA TAHN- YUH
INGRID ING- GRID VAN VAN
JERRY JEHR- EE WENDY WEN- DEE
KAREN KAIR- REN

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE CAN ALSO BE USED
IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ALSO ISSUED TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND THE
CENTER CAN BE EASILY TRACKED WITH LAND-BASED RADAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT
WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS
AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SAT JUN 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM HAITI TO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA WITH SOME TRACES OF SAHARAN DUST. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR AND MORE
SAHARAN DUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NEAR MAYAGUEZ AFTER 1 PM
AST. THERE WERE ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR TOA
BAJA...PONCE...JAYUYA AND UTUADO. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD A
LITTLE MORE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF THE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS AND
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER LATE MONDAY MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY THE
AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALSO VISIBLE IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT...ON
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE...SO FAR...IS ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL BE AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPEARS
TO SHARPEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE BECOMES PATCHIER AFTER THAT AND
NAAPS SHOWS BETTER CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING IN WITH
THE FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SPIKING UP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ IN LATE AFT
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 ENDED AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH 12 TO
20 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME DECREASE IS EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 86 / 10 10 20 20
STT 78 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
850 PM AST SAT JUN 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR NEAR 33N 69W WILL SUPPORT A
TROF INTO HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COMPARISON OF VIS IMAGERY FROM THREE DIFFERENT
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES (GOES-14, GOES-12 SOUTH AMERICA AND
METEOSAT) CONFIRMED A LAYER OF DUST HAZE WAS APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AT SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODIS IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOWED HIGHER AEROSOL CONCENTRATIONS JUST EAST
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. BLENDED TPW ALSO SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY DRYER
AIR NOW OVER THE USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT
DUST HAZE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER OUR SKIES. ALSO EXPECT TSTM AREAL
COVERAGE TO BE GREATLY REDUCED FROM TODAY SO WILL ADJUST POPS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AS
UPPER TROF AXIS PULLS EAST AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT
SIDE PRECEDING TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W THIS EVENING WILL ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
SEA MON AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL START WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASINGLY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SPLITTING OF
MOISTURE FIELD WILL OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
GOING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE
ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS ACTUALLY MON NIGHT WITH DRYING
EXPECTED OVER THE USVI BY TUE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS WAVE...FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WILL FOLLOW ACCORDING
TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER WITH SIG IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS PRETTY DRY AND
STABLE UNDER MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIR LAYER. TIME
SERIES PLOT OF 950...850...700 MB TEMPS AND H1000-850 THICKNESSES
ALL SHOW A SHARP RISE STARTING MON AND PEAKING ON WED WITH TEMPS
LIKELY TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S. OVERALL...HAZY...HOT BUT DRY AFTER
TUE UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLY WX WITH NMRS
TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY MON NIGHT. SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 86 / 10 10 20 20
STT 78 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will cause increasing showers to the Eastern Caribbean by Monday but after wave moves thru,hot,hazy and dry weather will prevail for the rest of this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED LOW NOW LOCATED
NEAR 34N 67W...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 51W...MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRYING IS EXPECTED AS
SOON AS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LATEST NAAPS GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE CONCENTRATIONS OF
SAHARAN DUST MOVING IN WITH THE FLOW BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE. THEREFORE...HAZY...HOT AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJMZ AND TJBQ HAS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER
02/16Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND THOSE
TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA EXPECTED...WHICH MAY CAUSE
MVFR CONDS...THOUGH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF IF AT AL. INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY OVER PR WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 02/12Z FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS
AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS OF
UP TO 6 FEET AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 20 20 20 70
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIPPLES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA NOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG HIGH
BUILDS JUST NORTH OF CUBA AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...CREATING A PATTERN THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN PUSHING THE HIGH TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DRIER AIR HAS EDGED IN OVER THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE RETURNS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT
NEGATIVELY TILTED POSITION AT 52 WEST TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY. PATCHY MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN
SPITE OF THE INTRUSION OF A DUST LADEN LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR ABOVE
ABOUT 6 KFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS GREW OVER PUERTO RICO EARLIER THAN
YESTERDAY...TENTATIVELY AT FIRST...AND THEN WITH INCREASING VIGOR AS
THE TIME GREW CLOSER TO MID-AFTERNOON. TOPS REACHED OR EXCEED 52
THOUSAND FEET IN PLACES AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
CULEBRINAS RIVER BASIN. A REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE WAS RECEIVED FROM
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN AGUADA AND MOCA. DRIER AIR WILL PASS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...THEN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
A TROPICAL WAVE.

THIS TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY AT 52 DEGREES WEST AT THIS
LATITUDE...CONTINUES TO HAVE A FORECAST PASSAGE OF TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE GFS. THE GFS SOLUTION...HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE WEAK
ON MOISTURE ESPECIALLY AT 850 MB...DURING AND RIGHT AFTER PASSAGE.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE MOISTURE AND BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA WILL PEAK AROUND 18Z WITH PRECIPITATION
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 05/00Z. NEVERTHELESS...IN
DEFERENCE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTERS WILL LEAVE THE TUESDAY FORECAST
INTACT AND RE-EVALUATE IT ON MONDAY.

AFTER TUESDAY A LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR LADEN WITH DESERT DUST MOVES
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOWEST LAYERS CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL SPAWN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY IN THE WEST...BUT IN GENERAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRAGMENTED AND SHEARED TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE COMING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY THOUGH SOME MOISTURE MAY COME AS A PRECURSOR SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE WEAK TROUGHING AT UPPER LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPAWNED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT
CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS IN DOWN BURSTS. EXPECT MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL ARND 02/22Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 03/16Z. THE ASOS AT TIST APPEARS TO BE
REPORTING CIGS THAT WE CANNOT CONFIRM. PIREPS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

&&

.MARINE...STEADY AND FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL AT
LEAST TUESDAY WILL KEEP SEAS IN EXPOSED WATERS UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL MAKE HORIZONS HAZY AFTERWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 86 / 20 20 70 70
STT 78 87 78 88 / 20 20 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR 35N 67W WILL MAINTAIN A
TROF INTO HISPANIOLA AND PR THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO IMPACT THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AOD PRODUCT...CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY AT SUNSET INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SAL LAYER OVR THE
SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PR MON WITH
DUST HAZE GREATLY INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER WRN PR.
HOWEVER...SQUALLS AND CONVECTIVE LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO START
ENTERING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EASTERN PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 57W. THIS SQUALLY WX IS
SUGGESTED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT FROM LATEST WRF-NMM.
BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT.
MODELS CONITNUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AND VORTICITY FIELDS SPLITTING AS
WAVE ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. I CONTINUE TO
BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR TUE. WHAT LOOKS CERTAIN IS
A DENSE LAYER OF CIRRUS KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TUE.
BEHIND WAVE...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAND DUST HAZE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA WITH HOT HAZY CONDITIONS. AREA WILL BECOME UNDER STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OF BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME DUST HAZE TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES. TSTMS AND SQUALLS WILL START APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST TOMORROW AND IMPACT LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI AND JSJ FROM
MIDDAY ON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND WATERS SURROUNDING ERN PR AND THE USVI
WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT AND REQUIRE
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 10 40 70 70
STT 78 87 78 88 / 10 50 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will move thru the Eastern Caribbean today thru Tuesday bringing scattered showers but after wave passes a period of hazy,very warm and mainly dry conditions will prevail thru next weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST MON JUN 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N 65W WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 58 WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BRING HAZY CONDITIONS
TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WEST AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING.

SQUALLS AND CONVECTIVE LINES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 58 W...
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE
ADVECTION EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...
SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

BY MID WEEK...LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE
HAZY...WARM TO HOT AND SPOTTY CONVECTION WITH VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE BRINGING SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AFTER 03/12Z. IN ADDITION...AFTER
03/16Z...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJBQ...AS
WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ...TJPS...AND TJSJ. APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST...UP TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SAHARAN DUST WILL MAKE HORIZONS HAZY AFTERWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 79 / 40 70 70 0
STT 87 78 88 79 / 40 60 60 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

June 3 2013
 

Significant Feature: An area of low pressure over the western Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Tropical Wave moving thru Eastern Caribbean tonight and thru PR late tonight thru Tuesday. The haze comes behind the wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST MON JUN 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AT 64.6 WEST WILL BRUSH BY
THE LOCAL AREA TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTHEAST MAINTAINING A WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY JET OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM 30 NORTH 49 WEST IN THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL A WEAK LOW
DROPS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY FORCING
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY. THIS WEAK LOW WILL EDGE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY
AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. SAHARAN
DUST EXTENDS FROM AFRICA...AROUND A WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 32 WEST...
THROUGH THE CLOSEST WAVE NEAR 61 WEST AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
DUST WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR MANY DAYS...WHILE
THE WAVE NEAR 32 WEST MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WAS VERY LIMITED OVER PUERTO RICO SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IN MOCA AND ADJOINING
MUNICIPALITIES IN ITS NORTHERN HEMICIRCLE. AT 3 PM A FEW SHOWERS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN CATANO. THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 61 WEST IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD...AND LIMITED CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEST MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER DIRECTLY
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITHIN THIS AIR MASS. ON
FRIDAY...FOR NOW...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALL BUT KILL ALL CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MORE OF AN EXTENSION OF TROUGHINESS
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN A TRUE WAVE. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF LESS CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME SQUALLY CHARACTER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN VERY
LOCAL AREAS WHEN OUT FLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS PASSES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE ONLY LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO BE OVER PR MTNS AND NW PR THRU 03/21Z WITH SOME
MTN OBSC...MVFR CONDS ARE AN OUTSIDE CHC AT TJMZ/TJBQ. INCR
MOISTURE FM EASTERLY WV CURRENTLY IMPACTING TNCM/TKPK WITH
SHRA/TSRA...AND A FEW SHRA MOVG INTO TIST/TISX NXT COUPLE OF HRS.
MVFR/ISOLD IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE BUT THERE IS A BREAK IN
SHRAS FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE SOON ARRIVING INTO USVI. SHRA/TSRA
WILL SPREAD INTO PR/USVI MAINLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. WINDS BLO FL100
ESE-SE 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...FLOW IS TURNING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST AGAIN. WITH WIND
SPEEDS CHANGING LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECT SEAS
TO CONTINUE AT 4 TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 79 86 / 30 70 40 40
STT 78 87 79 89 / 40 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical wave moving thru PR today and after it passes a hazy,hot and dry period will dominate for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUN 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WHILE A THICKER CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHED THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS AND LIGHTNING WAS
VERY FREQUENT. SOUNDERS IN SAINT CROIX AND SAN JUAN...AS WELL AS
SATELLITE DERIVED TPW INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOW
OVER 2 INCHES AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE UPWARDS OF 2.1 INCHES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PASSING
THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TOMORROW...SINCE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAY. HAVING SAID THAT...WRF MODEL PUTS LOTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER
PUERTO RICO...HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION....MAYBE SINCE THERE IS A THICKER CONCENTRATION OF
SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW...WHICH NORMALLY LIMITS
CONVECTION. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS SOMEWHAT BETTER AS THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN...LIMITING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...VARIABLE NEAR THE
SHRA/TSRA. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 05/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET
AND WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED TODAY...CAUSING LOCALLY
HIGHER WAVES AND GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 78 87 78 / 60 20 40 20
STT 85 78 87 79 / 60 10 20 20