ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical
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ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306030025
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013060300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013060300, , BEST, 0, 220N, 868W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306030025
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013060300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013060300, , BEST, 0, 220N, 868W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest
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ATL: ANDREA - Models
All models here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
Why is the map not updating yet?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
Looks like they went with the vortmax near the tip of the Yucatan, looks to be getting better organized faster than I predicted, and I do predict that this will be a typical tropical system with most if not all the precipitation on the east side
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Looking at the WV image, we see dry air over the GOM (orange), plus if you loop the image, you can see the clouds moving quickly ENE north of the Yucatan which indicates high shear over the GOM just north of 91L plus there is some shear over 91L and land interaction issues. For those reasons, I believe is why the NHC is indicating only marginally favorable environmental conditions.
Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Jun 02, 2013 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- SouthDadeFish
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I just finished a blog on newly named Invest 91L. For those interested, here are my thoughts:
http://fischerwx.wordpress.com/
http://fischerwx.wordpress.com/
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
Looks fairly certain that whatever does eventually develop is heading NE toward Florida. Shear doesn't appear to be extremely strong south of 24N. I anticipate a TD or a weak TS by Wed as it heads toward the FL Peninsula. Main threat will be rainfall.
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Re:
Alyono wrote:why a new thread for this? This is the exact same general area as 90L, which was a broad low
Because it is a new designation, new model guidance, new initialization.
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Re:
Alyono wrote:why a new thread for this? This is the exact same general area as 90L, which was a broad low
90L was essentially the remnants of Barbara in the Bay of Campeche, while Invest 91L is designated for the area of convection that originated in the NW Caribbean. And Storm2k always starts new threads for new invests
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
First Tropical Model plots
044
WHXX01 KWBC 030037
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC MON JUN 3 2013
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130603 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130603 0000 130603 1200 130604 0000 130604 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.8W 23.3N 87.9W 24.2N 88.5W 24.7N 89.3W
BAMD 22.0N 86.8W 23.4N 86.2W 24.8N 85.3W 26.3N 84.1W
BAMM 22.0N 86.8W 23.3N 87.1W 24.2N 87.2W 24.8N 87.5W
LBAR 22.0N 86.8W 23.1N 86.5W 24.6N 86.0W 26.2N 85.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130605 0000 130606 0000 130607 0000 130608 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 90.0W 24.2N 91.9W 22.6N 93.3W 22.1N 95.0W
BAMD 27.9N 82.7W 31.3N 78.1W 34.8N 71.4W 39.2N 65.2W
BAMM 25.6N 87.8W 26.0N 88.5W 25.9N 88.2W 27.6N 84.2W
LBAR 27.8N 83.6W 30.4N 79.9W 33.4N 75.8W 40.0N 68.9W
SHIP 29KTS 26KTS 21KTS 16KTS
DSHP 29KTS 26KTS 21KTS 16KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.8W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 87.2W DIRM12 = 27DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 87.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
044
WHXX01 KWBC 030037
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC MON JUN 3 2013
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130603 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130603 0000 130603 1200 130604 0000 130604 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.8W 23.3N 87.9W 24.2N 88.5W 24.7N 89.3W
BAMD 22.0N 86.8W 23.4N 86.2W 24.8N 85.3W 26.3N 84.1W
BAMM 22.0N 86.8W 23.3N 87.1W 24.2N 87.2W 24.8N 87.5W
LBAR 22.0N 86.8W 23.1N 86.5W 24.6N 86.0W 26.2N 85.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130605 0000 130606 0000 130607 0000 130608 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 90.0W 24.2N 91.9W 22.6N 93.3W 22.1N 95.0W
BAMD 27.9N 82.7W 31.3N 78.1W 34.8N 71.4W 39.2N 65.2W
BAMM 25.6N 87.8W 26.0N 88.5W 25.9N 88.2W 27.6N 84.2W
LBAR 27.8N 83.6W 30.4N 79.9W 33.4N 75.8W 40.0N 68.9W
SHIP 29KTS 26KTS 21KTS 16KTS
DSHP 29KTS 26KTS 21KTS 16KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.8W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 87.2W DIRM12 = 27DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 87.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
Hurricane Alexis wrote:Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?
Florida, then scoots NE.
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Re: Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Alyono wrote:why a new thread for this? This is the exact same general area as 90L, which was a broad low
90L was essentially the remnants of Barbara in the Bay of Campeche, while Invest 91L is designated for the area of convection that originated in the NW Caribbean. And Storm2k always starts new threads for new invests
He said it all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Hurricane Alexis wrote:Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?
Florida, then scoots NE.
But specifically what part of FL? Even though the impacts won't change.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
Hurricane Alexis wrote:Hurricane Andrew wrote:Hurricane Alexis wrote:Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?
Florida, then scoots NE.
But specifically what part of FL? Even though the impacts won't change.
West Coast, AL/FL border to Tampa.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Why is the map not updating yet?
All is in motion for this invest as they have runned the Bams and that will trigger the updating of the graphic.
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