Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season

[SFLcane]

Gread read! 2013 atlantic hurricane season outlook from Unapproved Site.com

http://t.co/hovBRAkAex

[wxman57]

Was just conversing with Phil Klotzbach to let him know their web server was down. His June 3rd update is done but cannot be viewed online yet.

[cycloneye]

Was just conversing with Phil Klotzbach to let him know their web server was down. His June 3rd update is done but cannot be viewed online yet.

They issued a press release as their site is down. See the forecast at first post.

[cycloneye]

The whole June forecast is now up as site is back.

[OuterBanker]

CSU June update has a new interesting chart. Individual state landfall probabilities.

Doesn’t look good for the big four (FL, TX, LA, NC). Exceptionally high for each.

[BigB0882]

Those numbers from CSU are certainly eye opening for the Gulf coast and specifically for my neck of the woods in Louisiana. I hope we don't get a Major. I have never been through one. Gustav died down before landfall and Isaac never got going. Katrina wasn't much to look at here in Baton Rouge so I didn't get to experience how ferocious she was for many others. I am not too worried, we have no trees but going without power is not something anyone looks forward to in the middle of summer.

[cycloneye]

TSR June 4 forecast is up at first post.

[cycloneye]

A new video by Levi Cowan about the rest of the season is up at first post.

[NDG]

A new video by Levi Cowan about the rest of the season is up at first post.

Very interesting regarding the Brazilian model, I had no idea, which it is still forecasting lower pressures for the Atlantic, beating the European model during the last couple of years.

[BigB0882]

That was a great video by Mr. Cowan. Those maps always look pretty but mean very little to me and he did a great job explaining them. Now I may understand those maps the next time I see them for other storms and predictions!

[KBBOCA]

Thanks for posting Levi Cowan's video. Really helpful explanation. It will be interesting to see which forecast / model is correct!

[cycloneye]

TSR did a July update and the numbers are 15/7/3 and that is down from 16/8/4 in June. Go to first post to see why they went down in the numbers.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Don't agree with their forecast at all. Sea surface temperatures cooled in June, yes, but have seen risen and expected to rise even more as we progress over the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

Now we have to see if CSU in the August forecast goes down in numbers as TSR did. We will find out on August 2nd.

[cycloneye]

The new round of forecasts by the experts will come on early August (CSU.TSR,NOAA) so we will see how they forecast the rest of this 2013 North Atlantic season. If I have to make a guess on how will they forecast,I say they will go down by 1 or 2 in the number of named storms. Already we got a hint when TSR downgraded the numbers by one from 16/8/4 in early June to 15/7/3 in the early July forecast. They cited as the main culprit for the downgrade the less warm waters in the MDR. But don't be complacient if they do downgrade the season as it only takes one to do all the harm to an area so be prepared for anything that mother nature brings.

[WeatherEmperor]

The new round of forecasts by the experts will come on early August (CSU.TSR,NOAA) so we will see how they forecast the rest of this 2013 North Atlantic season. If I have to make a guess on how will they forecast,I say they will go down by 1 or 2 in the number of named storms. Already we got a hint when TSR downgraded the numbers by one from 16/8/4 in early June to 15/7/3 in the early July forecast. They cited as the main culprit for the downgrade the less warm waters in the MDR. But don't be complacient if they do downgrade the season as it only takes one to do all the harm to an area so be prepared for anything that mother nature brings.

Luis,

Do you know the exact dates in august they will announce the updated forecast numbers?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[cycloneye]

The new round of forecasts by the experts will come on early August (CSU.TSR,NOAA) so we will see how they forecast the rest of this 2013 North Atlantic season. If I have to make a guess on how will they forecast,I say they will go down by 1 or 2 in the number of named storms. Already we got a hint when TSR downgraded the numbers by one from 16/8/4 in early June to 15/7/3 in the early July forecast. They cited as the main culprit for the downgrade the less warm waters in the MDR. But don't be complacient if they do downgrade the season as it only takes one to do all the harm to an area so be prepared for anything that mother nature brings.

Luis,

Do you know the exact dates in august they will announce the updated forecast numbers?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

CSU=August 2.
TSR=August 6.
NOAA =They don't say exact date but will be in early August.

[NDG]

Is going to be a big decision for the CSU, NOAA & TSR teams to have to make. If they bring their numbers down it could send the wrong message to the Public.
The only thing that I see that they could bring their numbers down is the cool waters in the NE Atlantic near the Azores Islands (which has not show any signs of moving into the Atlantic's MDR the past several weeks) and instability in the Tropical Atlantic is still running below average since the beginning of the year.
Other than that the other factors that I see that still call for an active rest of the season are below:

Neutral to cool neutral ENSO during the peak of the seaon.
Above average SSTs in the MDR
A bit more instability in the western Caribbean and GOM than previous years.

If I was to bring the number down, I would bring the number of major hurricanes down as below average instability could still be a factor in this season but not the total number of named storms.
I could see the high activity getting carrried over through October if not November.


My post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. Is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. Is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

The publics perception must have no impact on their forecast. It must be 100% science based. If the science tells them to bring the numbers down, then bring the numbers down.

[WeatherEmperor]

The publics perception must have no impact on their forecast. It must be 100% science based. If the science tells them to bring the numbers down, then bring the numbers down.

This is very good information. Thank you for mentioning this. They must do what the scientific data tells them to do +1 on your comment.
Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE