ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[SFLcane]

I don't see how this can bring too much rain for SFL. This looks similar to Alberto from '06 which dumped a little bit of rain over here.

Yes, HPC has 5-7". Yea so far the widespread heavy rains have not transpired. We have had extensive cloud cover, BUT models show some good vort lobes moving across the area from the SW, one even tomorrow. And with the deep moisture, the potential is there...especially mid week.

[SeminoleWind]

Looks a little better this evening right now.... Can clearly see the Circ north of the Yuc. pen.

[Aric Dunn]

every frame that comes in the circ is becoming more and more defined. even a few curved bands expanding out. with convection that looks like its going to develop over the circ.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

every frame that comes in the circ is becoming more and more defined. even a few curved bands expanding out. with convection that looks like its going to develop over the circ.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Where is the center you are talking about. Overland?

[Hurricaneman]

every frame that comes in the circ is becoming more and more defined. even a few curved bands expanding out. with convection that looks like its going to develop over the circ.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Where is the center you are talking about. Overland?

25 miles north of the Yucatan, and yes its looking better, and don't be surprised if we have a depression when recon gets there if its current organization continues

[Aric Dunn]

every frame that comes in the circ is becoming more and more defined. even a few curved bands expanding out. with convection that looks like its going to develop over the circ.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Where is the center you are talking about. Overland?

made a post earlier with an image. its offshore.

convection beginning to develop over the circ... not sure how extensive it will be or expansive but its a start

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[NDG]

every frame that comes in the circ is becoming more and more defined. even a few curved bands expanding out. with convection that looks like its going to develop over the circ.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yes, I agree with you now, it is now becoming more evident while the circulation over the northern Yucatan is dying out.

[Ivanhater]

Hard road ahead

[caneman]

Hey, you're up in our neck of the woods now. Weren't you in Miami before?

Hello, neighbor! Yes, I once lived in the Miami metro area, meaning SE Florida, in Boca Raton to be exact. I just started attending college at USF Saint Petersburg in Pinellas County this spring. I am currently back in Boca for summer break, but I will return to St. Pete for the fall and spring semesters of 2013-2014. So my real "home" is in St. Pete. What a special city...but more vulnerable to storm surge than in SE FL, thanks to the shallow Gulf shelf. Anyway, too many people who don't live on the Gulf do not know why we take even messy tropical storms seriously due to the surge. The ECMWF is showing a large storm at LF, meaning more of a fetch / surge hazard for the FL Gulf Coast from near Naples to near Cedar Key.

Andrew, since 1 m/s = 1.94 kt, I multiplied 35 m/s*1.94 kt = 67.9 kt at 850 mb. Since the NHC uses about a 90% reduction factor, I got 61 kt (70 mph) at 10 m (the surface).

Edit: Ah, never mind. Thanks to wxman57 for correcting me.

It is a special place indeed. Beautiful area where that school is. Lots of places that flood around there though. Doesn't take much. I live near Clearwater Beach. My Son starts college in the fall at St. Pete College but may go to USF for year 3 and 4. All the best to ya'. NOw, back on topic........

[SeminoleWind]

Boy that W.V. tells a much different story doesn't it?

[cycloneye]

Look how the rain shield is approaching the Keys. Saved loop.

[psyclone]

Regardless of development, (I am at least giving the decidedly non-sexy option of no development a good chance) the legacy of this system is likely to be A:) heavy rain and B:) a svrwx threat. with that in mind, take a look at the mass of convection in the florida straits approaching the Keys. Yikes. And absent dissipation, those torrential rains could invade parts of the Miami CWA later tonight.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

Between the dry air and the shear that I see I'm having doubts that this will make TD status, much less TS. Must admit that I haven't looked at the shear tendency map yet though. That still won't keep it from soaking the peninsula if not most of FL E of Tallahassee.

[psyclone]

I see you noticed that too Cycloneye! that's a lot of water!

[supercane4867]

TS Barry in 2007 developed under 40kt of shear, can't get any worse than that

[jlauderdal]

We finally were able to crank out some development in sofla tonite.

[cycloneye]

Another perspective of the rain from the Cuba radar. Saved loop.

[jlauderdal]

Look how the rain shield is approaching the Keys. Saved loop.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/iqbvpc.jpg

[ronjon]

18z GFS shows a compact 1003 mb low in 72 hrs. It then gets elongated NE as it approaches cedar key.

[JonathanBelles]

Blog post:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... r-florida/