Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#541 Postby Alyono » Sun Jun 02, 2013 8:38 am

of curse and underground shelter is the best. if not that, a safe room built to bank vault-like standards.

As for fleeing early in the morning of a severe weather day, that simply is not practical. People would be fleeing 50 times a year!

This debate is very necessary as there really are no good options during violent tornadoes if you have no underground shelter or true safe room. Different mets have different opinions.I favor fleeing if one can do so correctly. Others favor sheltering in place.

And yes... if I have word a violent tornado is coming at me, I am gone since I don't have a safe room or below ground shelter as I live in an apt. I also know I likely only have to go a mile at most to be out of the path. I'd have analyzed it carefully on radar first though before deciding which road to take
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#542 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:05 am

I was worried about that. So heartbreaking and tragic. Prayers for everyone in the weather community...
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#543 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:34 am

Also about cars - even an EF-2 tornado can do serious damage to them and be deadly to everyone in their path. The same EF-2 (or even EF-3) tornado would be very much survivable in their homes without a basement if they are in an interior room or closet, covered. Even in EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes which are pretty much unsurvivable above ground, usually only a small part of the track gets that level of damage. If the entire Joplin track had EF-5 damage across its entire width, for example, the death toll would probably be several thousand. Typically the EF-4+ damage is less than 100 yards wide and often intermittent. However, the EF-2 and 3 damage path is much larger and more persistent typically.

If an intense tornado had hit the Interstates directly with the traffic jams, we would be possible talking about a death toll over 1,000.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re:

#544 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:39 am

Alyono wrote:of curse and underground shelter is the best. if not that, a safe room built to bank vault-like standards.

As for fleeing early in the morning of a severe weather day, that simply is not practical. People would be fleeing 50 times a year!

This debate is very necessary as there really are no good options during violent tornadoes if you have no underground shelter or true safe room. Different mets have different opinions.I favor fleeing if one can do so correctly. Others favor sheltering in place.

And yes... if I have word a violent tornado is coming at me, I am gone since I don't have a safe room or below ground shelter as I live in an apt. I also know I likely only have to go a mile at most to be out of the path. I'd have analyzed it carefully on radar first though before deciding which road to take


While this may be a good plan for you, a true meteorologist, does this work for the average person? Can they accurately interpret radar? Will they even take the time to look at the radar or just get the heck out of there? Does this work in a situation such as OKC where you have a large metro area? You cannot tell everyone in a tornado warning to evacuate when that warning is for hundreds of thousands of people. When you do, you get what we saw the night of May 31st. We are truly blessed that a violent tornado did not move through the city and over the interstates or else we would have seen death tolls comparable with the Tri-State Tornado. My point is, while evacuating may be successful if you can actually get out of the may, many times, especially in large cities, it is not practical. The risk of being stuck on the road far exceeds the risk of the tornado moving over your house. As studies have shown, it is very possible to survive an EF-4 even without a storm cellar/basement.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#545 Postby artist » Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:40 am

from watching it on tv from the helicopter and storm chasers as it was happening, there were several times when tornadoes were dancing around each other in circles, just dropping like flies from the overall circulation. It was crazy.
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re:

#546 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:42 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Also about cars - even an EF-2 tornado can do serious damage to them ...

Cars and trucks get blown off the road quite often by 50-60 MPH crosswinds, even on sunny days. It doesn't have to be a major storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

#547 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:44 am

By the way, here are the preliminary ratings for the May 31st outbreak in Oklahoma:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130531

The El Reno Tornado was given a preliminary EF-3 rating.

There were also two tornadoes given a preliminary EF-3 rating in the St. Louis area.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#548 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:56 am

This is my understanding of what happened.

Image

The tornado was embedded in an unusually large mesocyclone (the yellow circle I drew), in which the tornado was rotating around counter-clockwise while the entire mesocyclone was moving east-southeast. Its very similar to vorticies you sometimes see in the eye of a hurricane. The vortices rotate around the eye while the overall storm continues to move in one direction.

You can see how the storm moved NE suddenly towards and over I-40. I'm betting that is where Samaras' team was located. They figured they were in a safe position north of a tornado that was moving east-southeast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#549 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jun 02, 2013 10:08 am

Im thinking, but what if from a safe distance like 5 miles that these scientific storm chasers send in a remote controlled drone, just change the TIV or Dominator remote controlled and put equipment and cameras in it so you can safely get your shots and get all the data, but the main problem with this would be major costs but it could be the future of storm chasing
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

#550 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jun 02, 2013 10:19 am

From the most dangerous to safest situations, here is what I think they are:

1 - Outdoors near trees, buildings or other debris

2 - Inside mobile homes

3 - Inside motor vehicles

4 - Inside a permanent house or building, unprotected or weak

5 - Outdoors in open areas or in a ditch

6 - Inside a permanent house or building, lowest floor protected location such as closet or bathroom

7 - Inside a standard basement of a house or building

8 - Inside a very large, protected building (such as a high rise concrete structure), in the central area

9 - Inside a certified storm shelter or cellar
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

#551 Postby MGC » Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:26 am

I visit OK often and tornado coverage is intense by the media when one threatens OKC or Tulsa. The media sends out the chasers on the ground and in air almost as soon as rotation is noticed on radar. Now,if were me and I had a massive wedge coming at me, and based on media reports people know almost to the street the tornado is tracking along, and if I didn't have a shelter, I'd flee. It is human nature to remove oneself from danger. Remember these folks have had nonstop news of the Moore tornado. The same thing happened with Hurricane Rita. People had been watching the Katrina news and now the same thing was coming for them. Time to run, just like I did for Katrina...MGC
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

#552 Postby Alyono » Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:35 am

CrazyC83 wrote:From the most dangerous to safest situations, here is what I think they are:

1 - Outdoors near trees, buildings or other debris

2 - Inside mobile homes

3 - Inside motor vehicles

4 - Inside a permanent house or building, unprotected or weak

5 - Outdoors in open areas or in a ditch

6 - Inside a permanent house or building, lowest floor protected location such as closet or bathroom

7 - Inside a standard basement of a house or building

8 - Inside a very large, protected building (such as a high rise concrete structure), in the central area

9 - Inside a certified storm shelter or cellar


I believe the Red Cross now recommends staying inside a vehicle and not going into a ditch http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_19417.html

it does make some sense as one would have air bag and seat belt protection. Now, it is an AWFUL place to be in a tornado, but may be better than exposed in a ditch
0 likes   

EF-5bigj
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 864
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:36 pm
Location: Spartanburg,SC

Re:

#553 Postby EF-5bigj » Sun Jun 02, 2013 12:25 pm

RL3AO wrote:This is my understanding of what happened.

Image

The tornado was embedded in an unusually large mesocyclone (the yellow circle I drew), in which the tornado was rotating around counter-clockwise while the entire mesocyclone was moving east-southeast. Its very similar to vorticies you sometimes see in the eye of a hurricane. The vortices rotate around the eye while the overall storm continues to move in one direction.

You can see how the storm moved NE suddenly towards and over I-40. I'm betting that is where Samaras' team was located. They figured they were in a safe position north of a tornado that was moving east-southeast.

So it took the turn that no one saw coming we know it also caught Mike Bettes off guard to when it did that turn.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#554 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jun 02, 2013 12:29 pm

In any storm, I think that freeways are the worst roads to be on. Simply put, there is nowhere for them to turn easily or get off of from them if severe weather is approaching. At least on side roads, they can turn or pull off.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Re:

#555 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jun 02, 2013 1:08 pm

EF-5bigj wrote: So it took the turn that no one saw coming we know it also caught Mike Bettes off guard to when it did that turn.


Guys with experience like Bettes and Samaras don't get caught in tornadoes unless something very unusual happened, which it appeared to do.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

#556 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Jun 02, 2013 3:39 pm

Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:From the most dangerous to safest situations, here is what I think they are:

1 - Outdoors near trees, buildings or other debris

2 - Inside mobile homes

3 - Inside motor vehicles

4 - Inside a permanent house or building, unprotected or weak

5 - Outdoors in open areas or in a ditch

6 - Inside a permanent house or building, lowest floor protected location such as closet or bathroom

7 - Inside a standard basement of a house or building

8 - Inside a very large, protected building (such as a high rise concrete structure), in the central area

9 - Inside a certified storm shelter or cellar


I believe the Red Cross now recommends staying inside a vehicle and not going into a ditch http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_19417.html

it does make some sense as one would have air bag and seat belt protection. Now, it is an AWFUL place to be in a tornado, but may be better than exposed in a ditch


In light of that last statement, this was just reported by KOCO:

http://m.koco.com/news/deputy-fire-chie ... ce=dlvr.it.

If I'm reading that right, that's seven MORE people unaccounted for and likely deceased.

In addition to the current toll of 10 tornado deaths and two flash flooding deaths.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Multi-day outbreak of May 25-31

#557 Postby Alyono » Sun Jun 02, 2013 4:54 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:From the most dangerous to safest situations, here is what I think they are:

1 - Outdoors near trees, buildings or other debris

2 - Inside mobile homes

3 - Inside motor vehicles

4 - Inside a permanent house or building, unprotected or weak

5 - Outdoors in open areas or in a ditch

6 - Inside a permanent house or building, lowest floor protected location such as closet or bathroom

7 - Inside a standard basement of a house or building

8 - Inside a very large, protected building (such as a high rise concrete structure), in the central area

9 - Inside a certified storm shelter or cellar


I believe the Red Cross now recommends staying inside a vehicle and not going into a ditch http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_19417.html

it does make some sense as one would have air bag and seat belt protection. Now, it is an AWFUL place to be in a tornado, but may be better than exposed in a ditch


In light of that last statement, this was just reported by KOCO:

http://m.koco.com/news/deputy-fire-chie ... ce=dlvr.it.

If I'm reading that right, that's seven MORE people unaccounted for and likely deceased.

In addition to the current toll of 10 tornado deaths and two flash flooding deaths.


That is why the Red Cross advises not leaving a car in a tornado if you cannot get out of the way or find a safe shelter. You have no protection in a ditch
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#558 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Jun 02, 2013 10:24 pm

Tornado death toll from Friday evening now stands at 13 people according to KOCO with an undetermined number still missing.

That makes 37 tornado deaths from the 5/20/13 Moore EF5 and the 5/31/13 El Reno EF3 storms. While two events, that's as many fatalities as the 5/3/99 Moore storm.

So tragic and terrible for the OKC suburbs.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re:

#559 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jun 03, 2013 3:43 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Tornado death toll from Friday evening now stands at 13 people according to KOCO with an undetermined number still missing.

That makes 37 tornado deaths from the 5/20/13 Moore EF5 and the 5/31/13 El Reno EF3 storms. While two events, that's as many fatalities as the 5/3/99 Moore storm.

So tragic and terrible for the OKC suburbs.


36 deaths, actually. They lowered the Moore death toll to 23.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#560 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jun 03, 2013 11:31 pm

Another chaser death from Friday's El Reno tornado:

http://newsok.com/article/3841315
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal, utpmg and 9 guests