ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

A very clear LLC around 24.2N 88.3W, but is that the COC or just another vortex being spat out?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Looks like just another lowest level vortex ejected westward. It still looks to me like the main COC that is ejecting those LLCs is east-southeast of there.

[Dean4Storms]

RPM into Appalachicola.....


https://twitter.com/spann/status/341939 ... 13/photo/1

What's kind of intriguing is that if this does develope in to a TS and move towards the northern FL Panhandle the weather obviously is all going to be displaced well to the East so it's conceivable that we could have the COC come as close as say 50-75 miles of us yet experience no impacts whatsoever from this.

I'm not so sure we wouldn't get some showers moving in from the east or SE.

[robbielyn]

the dry air gets more intense coming out of western gulf. it wont be able to develop into ts

[cycloneye]

Compared to this morning,there has been an increase on the 850mb vorticity. This was at 21:00 UTC.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah taking a look at the wider view. the MLV coming from the channel the 2 vorts dropping south are painting a large gyrie which should focus right north of the channel tonight. pretty much around the convergence line. ozonepete you see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[ozonepete]

the dry air gets more intense coming out of western gulf. it wont be able to develop into ts

The dry air is moistening up now where it meets the trough and so does not look to be a factor going forward.

[ozonepete]

yeah taking a look at the wider view. the MLV coming from the channel the 2 vorts dropping south are painting a large gyrie which should focus right north of the channel tonight. pretty much around the convergence line. ozonepete you see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

That's what I see. It has a pretty good shot for at least a depression tomorrow since, if we're right, the center should form a little south and east of where the models have been putting it. That gives it a little more time.

[TheStormExpert]

The biggest concern to me right now is all of that Dry Air in western half of the GoM. Even though it may seem to not be a huge problem right now I think it could prevent 91L from developing to much more.

[ozonepete]

The biggest concern to me right now is all of that Dry Air in western half of the GoM. Even though it may seem to not be a huge problem right now I think it could prevent 91L from developing to much more.

Two things to remember though. First, that image only shows high level dry air for certain. It often does not show mid-level dry air. Only mid-level dry air is detrimental to tropical cyclones. The second is that it is the direction mid-level dry air is moving that matters. If it is not moving towards the cyclone or is not forecast to, then it won't have much influence. The mid-levels are more moist than that image indicates and the COC seems to be forming within the more moist air to the east. Thus it will not be ingesting as much dry air.

[ROCK]

that image tells the story...dry air eating up the western half. Low level convergence all over the place. Typical June system....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

Ozonepete latest frame .. that mlc becoming quite wrapped up and on the move in the direction the and llc that develops go.. convection building to north and nw appears on its way... dont think it will be long before a llc develops under that mlc.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the shear and dry air will keep it that way generally, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if a new coc forms closer to the deepest convection. That is just to the northeast of the huge convective complex in the Yucatan Channel in the extreme southern GOM. If it does that, it may be able to scour out just enough of the dry air to organize in the next 36 hours or so.

[blp]

I am seeing mlc wrapping at 23 & 86. Is that correct?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

[ozonepete]

Ozonepete latest frame .. that mlc becoming quite wrapped up and on the move in the direction the and llc that develops go.. convection building to north and nw appears on its way... dont think it will be long before a llc develops under that mlc.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yeah, I see it. The increasing convection is starting to consolidate the MLC which in turn can get an LLC spinning up that will stay put under it. And it's happening pretty rapidly now. Gives it a better shot. The IR satellite images tonight are going to be impressive.

[ozonepete]

I am seeing mlc wrapping at 23 & 86. Is that correct?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Yup. Pretty much right around there.

[cycloneye]

40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE LOCATED WELL
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[MGC]

Wish I could share some enthusiasm about 91L. Only circulation I see, either aloft or near the surface is the one north of the Yucatan, yes that naked swirl. I see nothing of a circulation in the large mass of convection in the eastern GOM and Yucatan channel. I've looked for other circulation using satellite, and radar and don't see it. The dry air and shear are holding development back. Just look at all that dry continental air streaming into the Gulf....this is like antimatter to a TC......MGC

[ronjon]

Anybody know why they're not running the tropical models HWRF and GFDL on 91L?

[psyclone]

Convection is looking healthier. this thing is really generating impressive storms on its eastern side and the western part of cuba has has been getting dumped on. unfortunately there is no end in sight for that region. eventually that type of training torrential rain is likely to impact some part of Florida.

[boca]

Here in SE Florida we are getting just a drizzle and thats about it.Just overcast and dreary.I dont expect more than a few inches of rain unless the upper level winds push the convection more to the east.