ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Cancun Airport reporting WSW winds, 7mph

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/cancunobs.htm

[NDG]

Lates vorticity map shows that the highest H85 vorticity is now closer to the deep convection than 6 hrs ago, makes me believe that the surface circulation is going to either move closer to the convection or reform closer to it.

[gatorcane]

Quite surprised NHC is not already calling this a depression and 50% development chances still seems a little bit on the conservative side.

Here is an update on the Tornado threat for the Tampa Bay area:

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL EXTEND
EASTWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE THE LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL IN QUESTION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHEN OR WHERE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE. THE
PREFERRED GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A ZONE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD STARTING SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[jlauderdal]

Buoy 42003 has now being reporting TD force winds for at least 5 hrs straight now, close to 10 foot waves and a pressure of 4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago. All the recon has to find is a defined LLC for 91L to get upgraded to at least our first TD.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 889111.png

correct, if recon can close it off then you have your td/ts..winds and pressure alone wont do it

[Sanibel]

I agree. I think the Caribbean wave took over and Barbara's remnants poofed.

Have to bust myself on this. The scat image shows the impetus came from the low pressure remnants of Barbara IMO. The Caribbean wave probably recharged those remnants and combined. Minor point.

Overcast and drizzly here.

[Sanibel]

Quite surprised NHC is not already calling this a depression and 50% development chances still seems a little bit on the conservative side.

It could be they are laying back because it is forecast to open up into a sheared elongated mess of a Low tomorrow.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro 10m winds in 3hr increments and see a max of 30-35 kts east of Hatteras in 72 hours. Over land - wind 5-15 kts.

[adam0983]

In palm beach county so far this morning it is a light drizzle and light showers. Will the rain get worse later today and this evening?

[NDG]

Buoy 42003 has now being reporting TD force winds for at least 5 hrs straight now, close to 10 foot waves and a pressure of 4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago. All the recon has to find is a defined LLC for 91L to get upgraded to at least our first TD.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 889111.png

correct, if recon can close it off then you have your td/ts..winds and pressure alone wont do it

But I just wanted to correct you that it does have a closed circulation, it just needs a defined LLC close to the deep convection.
I have been studying Tropical Cyclones since I was a little kid, 30 years ago, I know what qualifies it to be a TD, TS...etc

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't bank too much on intensity and winds at this point, that could change and especially for the Carolina Coast.

[NDG]

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro 10m winds in 3hr increments and see a max of 30-35 kts east of Hatteras in 72 hours. Over land - wind 5-15 kts.

Does it show any of the 25-30 knot winds any where close to buoy 42003 for this morning?

[hurricanefloyd5]

If this is accurate we have a Tropical Depression......

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1306050600

Think recon we'll find that we have a tropical depression or possibly tropical storm Andrea today. how will it affect my getaway this weekend. I am going on a small trip this weekend down by the airport with some friends. I will be cut off from all communication for the most part

[tropicwatch]

Buoy reports in the GOM:
Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Wed, 5 Jun 2013 12:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F
This is relatively NE of the system.

Station 42001
NDBC
Location: 25.888N 89.658W
Date: Wed, 5 Jun 2013 12:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (70°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in and rising
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 74.8 F
Water Temperature: 80.4 F
This is relatively NW of the system.

Pressures are fairly low.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro 10m winds in 3hr increments and see a max of 30-35 kts east of Hatteras in 72 hours. Over land - wind 5-15 kts.

Does it show any of the 25-30 knot winds any where close to buoy 42003 for this morning?

Sure (see below), that's exactly what it's showing over buoy 42003. I think the low center is still way too broad/ill-defined and lacking any convection near it to call it a TD. Not sure it will make it to TD status today. Maybe tomorrow.

Here's the map valid 12Z today:

[NDG]

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro 10m winds in 3hr increments and see a max of 30-35 kts east of Hatteras in 72 hours. Over land - wind 5-15 kts.

Does it show any of the 25-30 knot winds any where close to buoy 42003 for this morning?

Sure (see below), that's exactly what it's showing over buoy 42003. I think the low center is still way too broad/ill-defined and lacking any convection near it to call it a TD. Not sure it will make it to TD status today. Maybe tomorrow.

Here's the map valid 12Z today:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ECwinds.gif

Thanks for posting the image.
It sure does show the winds the buoy is reporting this morning.
I think that 91L has only 24-36 hrs to work with the best UL level winds it has to work with before UL winds get even worst, if by tomorrow morning is not a TD or TS I doubt it will be after that, maybe a subtropical or extratropical of some sort gale center after tomorrow if it gets back into the Atlantic waters.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

dry air still coming out of Texas eating away the western side. Coupled that with moderate shear we have what we see here.

[adam0983]

Invest 91L looks to be winning against the sheer right now. It looks like Andrea will be here soon. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[SouthDadeFish]

Although there is some deep convection in the burst to the SE of the broad center, it remains unorganized:

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks a lot worse than I was expecting after it's improvement last night. Still has work to do, and the clock is ticking.

[Dave]

Quick question,

does this line (especially the term "cyclone") mean that they are already expecting 91L to be a numbered system by Thursday?

B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE

Possible..really a clear cut answer huh. But normally yes once they change the words from one mission to another then they are expecting it to go up in strength. In reality...we'll know the answer to that once the flights done.