ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO this gets bumped up to code red, 60 or 70 percent with the 2pm TWO.

[Dave]

AF 303 on the runway....waiting for take off...Welcome to recon 2013!

000
URNT15 KNHC 051714
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 01 20130605
170600 3024N 08855W 0133 ///// 0134 +375 +268 360000 000 /// /// 23
170630 3024N 08855W 0132 00000 0134 +374 +267 360000 000 /// /// 03
170700 3024N 08855W 0133 ///// 0134 +369 +266 360000 000 /// /// 23
170730 3024N 08855W 0132 ///// 0126 +346 +264 360000 000 /// /// 23
170800 3024N 08855W 0131 ///// 0123 +353 +263 360000 000 /// /// 23
170830 3024N 08855W 0132 ///// 0126 +364 +262 360000 000 /// /// 23
170900 3024N 08855W 0133 00001 0133 +370 +261 360000 000 /// /// 03
170930 3024N 08855W 0132 ///// 0131 +372 +260 360000 000 /// /// 23
171000 3024N 08855W 0132 ///// 0130 +373 +259 360000 000 /// /// 23
171030 3024N 08855W 0133 00002 0135 +372 +258 360000 000 /// /// 03
171100 3024N 08855W 0133 00002 0136 +367 +257 360000 000 /// /// 03
171130 3024N 08855W 0133 ///// 0133 +370 +256 360000 000 /// /// 23
171200 3024N 08855W 0132 ///// 0130 +364 +255 360000 000 /// /// 23
171230 3024N 08855W 0133 ///// 0133 +369 +253 360000 000 /// /// 23
171300 3024N 08855W 0133 ///// 0134 +363 +252 360000 000 /// /// 23
171330 3024N 08855W 0134 00007 0141 +368 +251 360000 000 /// /// 03
171400 3024N 08855W 0134 00003 0139 +369 +250 360000 000 /// /// 03
171430 3024N 08855W 0134 00002 0136 +369 +248 360000 000 /// /// 03
171500 3024N 08855W 0133 00004 0138 +371 +248 360000 000 /// /// 03
171530 3024N 08855W 0134 00001 0136 +364 +247 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that Invest 91L will be upgraded at the 5pm advisory to a TD

[robbielyn]

I think u mean 91L? Debby also looked more elongated. It only looked like half a storm. this one looks more like a backwards C to it. Im just saying looks wise to my untrained eye this storm looks more like a td or ts than debby minus the very important swirl. Im not questioning or disagreeing though.

[wxman57]

Does anyone think that Invest 91L will be upgraded at the 5pm advisory to a TD

Just looked at another high-res sat loop with obs and I don't think it has a well-defined center of circulation. I can see at least 2 small vortices rotating around a larger region of low pressure. Convection is moving eastward, away from the northernmost vortex. Both are weakening.

[robbielyn]

I do have a question though.
We had like 10 minutes of sun during noon hour. Thats not enough time to destabilize the atmosphere is it?

[SeminoleWind]

Whether Recon finds a TD or not its pretty safe to say the heavy rain and small tornado threat will climbing for west central Florida late tonight thru Thursday night.

[wxman57]

I think u mean 91L? Debby also looked more elongated. It only looked like half a storm. this one looks more like a backwards C to it. Im just saying looks wise to my untrained eye this storm looks more like a td or ts than debby minus the very important swirl. Im not questioning or disagreeing though.

Yeah, thanks. Got a bit ahead of myself with 92L.

[Dave]

Cycloneye nevermind I got the link I needed from 2011 files.

[Dave]

Still on runway..

000
URNT15 KNHC 051724
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 02 20130605
171600 3024N 08855W 0133 ///// 0135 +362 +246 360000 000 /// /// 23
171630 3024N 08855W 0133 00002 0136 +353 +245 360000 000 /// /// 03
171700 3024N 08855W 0134 00004 0139 +357 +244 360000 000 /// /// 03
171730 3024N 08855W 0133 00003 0139 +353 +243 360000 000 /// /// 03
171800 3024N 08855W 0133 00002 0138 +359 +242 360000 000 /// /// 03
171830 3024N 08855W 0134 00004 0140 +360 +242 360000 000 /// /// 03
171900 3024N 08855W 0134 00006 0139 +350 +242 360000 000 /// /// 03
171930 3024N 08855W 0133 00003 0138 +359 +241 360000 000 /// /// 03
172000 3024N 08855W 0134 00002 0137 +365 +241 360000 000 /// /// 03
172030 3024N 08855W 0129 00002 0134 +368 +241 360000 000 /// /// 03
172100 3024N 08855W 0133 ///// 0134 +362 +241 360000 000 /// /// 23
172130 3024N 08855W 0135 ///// 0136 +354 +242 360000 000 /// /// 23
172200 3024N 08855W 0135 ///// 0136 +341 +244 360000 000 /// /// 23
172230 3024N 08855W 0135 ///// 0135 +349 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
172300 3024N 08855W 0135 ///// 0135 +353 +246 360000 000 /// /// 23
172330 3024N 08855W 0135 ///// 0134 +360 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
172400 3024N 08855W 0135 ///// 0134 +332 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
172430 3025N 08855W 0135 ///// 0136 +321 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
172500 3025N 08855W 0134 00001 0136 +316 +245 360000 000 /// /// 03
172530 3025N 08855W 0135 ///// 0137 +320 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

[robbielyn]

We had 10 minutes of sunshine at noon. How long does it take to destabilize the atmosphere? probably more like 30 minutes to an hour?

[NDG]

Buoy south of Panama City wide view, showing the approaching clouds from the disturbance to the south of it.
It is now reporting 8 foot waves with winds under 20 mph, this disturbance is surely chopping up the GOM.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

[Evil Jeremy]

Thought I'd get the discussion thread underway. Its been a long time since we had recon to follow!

[Dave]

Ok while we've got a little time...lets keep this thread clear of any questions or comments please. This one will be used for hdobs, recco's, vdm's, dropsondes and graphics only.

LOL Thank you Evil Jeremy!! Here's the recon discussion thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115055

[robbielyn]

when they say td or ts winds will be felt along the coast, I am at least 10 miles inland does that still include me or not?

[wxman57]

when they say td or ts winds will be felt along the coast, I am at least 10 miles inland does that still include me or not?

Probably not. Right on the beach, maybe. At 10 miles inland, maybe 15-25 mph.

[robbielyn]

I think u mean 91L? Debby also looked more elongated. It only looked like half a storm. this one looks more like a backwards C to it. Im just saying looks wise to my untrained eye this storm looks more like a td or ts than debby minus the very important swirl. Im not questioning or disagreeing though.

Yeah, thanks. Got a bit ahead of myself with 92L.

Most likely wont see that originate in the gulf either. maybe CV area

[Dave]

Thanks Jeremy!

[robbielyn]

when they say td or ts winds will be felt along the coast, I am at least 10 miles inland does that still include me or not?

Probably not. Right on the beach, maybe. At 10 miles inland, maybe 15-25 mph.

Geez, our daytime Tstorms create gust 40-50 mph lol. what a joke. BTW wxman57 how long does it take to destabilize the atmosphere when the sun comes out?

[NDG]

As the day has gone the MLC has surely become more defined.
It will be interesting to see what the recon finds underneath it, inflow into it still very evident.

Click on the loop below, make sure you speed it up.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=7