ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Frank2]

It depends on the surface and air temperature and dewpoint. In Florida in June with a tropical air mass nearby, modest destabilization can happen very quickly, which increases with time.

Last evening our DP was 76 (!), so very tropical down here right now, as per usual for June...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051804
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 06 20130605
175600 2846N 08933W 4976 05895 0288 -065 -381 298010 010 /// /// 03
175630 2843N 08933W 4976 05898 0288 -065 -380 302010 010 /// /// 03
175700 2841N 08934W 4975 05898 0288 -065 -381 311010 010 /// /// 03
175730 2838N 08934W 4978 05893 0288 -065 -384 314009 009 /// /// 03
175800 2835N 08935W 4975 05898 0288 -065 -385 309008 008 /// /// 03
175830 2833N 08935W 4976 05896 0288 -065 -386 314008 008 /// /// 03
175900 2830N 08936W 4976 05896 0288 -065 -387 315008 008 /// /// 03
175930 2828N 08936W 4976 05896 0288 -065 -389 319008 008 /// /// 03
180000 2825N 08937W 4976 05895 0287 -065 -390 324008 009 /// /// 03
180030 2822N 08937W 4976 05895 0286 -065 -391 324009 009 /// /// 03
180100 2820N 08938W 4976 05895 0286 -068 -392 324009 010 /// /// 03
180130 2817N 08938W 4975 05895 0286 -073 -381 324008 009 /// /// 03
180200 2814N 08939W 4975 05895 0286 -070 -341 326009 009 /// /// 03
180230 2812N 08939W 4977 05892 0286 -070 -340 325010 010 /// /// 03
180300 2809N 08940W 4976 05895 0286 -070 -355 321010 011 /// /// 03
180330 2806N 08940W 4978 05892 0286 -070 -341 323011 011 021 000 03
180400 2804N 08940W 4976 05894 0286 -070 -327 323011 011 024 000 00
180430 2801N 08941W 4976 05895 0286 -070 -325 326010 011 026 000 00
180500 2758N 08941W 4976 05894 0286 -070 -333 326010 010 025 000 00
180530 2756N 08942W 4975 05896 0286 -070 -326 329010 010 024 000 03
$$
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[ROCK]

Can't blame NHC for playing it close to the vest, cos they've been burned before. Danny topped hurricane status just prior to coming ashore near Mobile....conventional wisdom at the time had Danny limited to a TS at landfall, but he surprised a lot of people.

Hum<cough>berto....comes to mind..

[robbielyn]

It depends on the surface and air temperature and dewpoint. In Florida in June with a tropical air mass nearby, modest destabilization can happen very quickly, which increases with time.

I asked because i live just north in tampa and they said the likelyhood of weak tornadoes may be lessened due to cloud cover but we are having a little sun or you can see the sun shining through the clouds so I was wondering if the air in the hernando county area is destabilizing which would amp up chances for tornadoes

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 051805
97779 17554 40288 89500 56100 99005 56871 /4586
RMK AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 01
;

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

What would the NHC and offices issue if they find a closed circulation, a Tropical Storm Warning?

Yes because it would be in the 24-36 hour period before a landfall.

[Dave]

Descending to operational altitude...

000
URNT15 KNHC 051814
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 07 20130605
180600 2753N 08942W 4976 05895 0287 -070 -317 328011 011 025 000 03
180630 2750N 08943W 4976 05895 0287 -070 -316 328011 011 025 000 00
180700 2748N 08943W 4976 05895 0287 -067 -316 328011 011 025 000 00
180730 2745N 08944W 4976 05895 0287 -065 -319 330011 012 024 000 03
180800 2742N 08944W 4976 05896 0287 -065 -313 330011 012 025 000 03
180830 2740N 08945W 4976 05895 0287 -065 -310 336011 011 026 000 03
180900 2737N 08945W 4976 05895 0286 -065 -314 338011 011 026 000 03
180930 2734N 08946W 4976 05895 0286 -065 -310 343012 012 025 000 00
181000 2731N 08946W 4977 05892 0285 -065 -307 347012 013 026 000 00
181030 2729N 08947W 4975 05896 0286 -065 -308 348012 012 027 000 00
181100 2726N 08947W 4975 05895 0285 -065 -309 351012 012 028 000 03
181130 2723N 08948W 4976 05893 0285 -065 -297 349014 015 027 000 00
181200 2721N 08948W 4976 05895 0286 -065 -281 350014 015 026 000 00
181230 2718N 08949W 4976 05893 0286 -063 -288 347013 014 027 000 03
181300 2715N 08949W 4976 05892 0284 -060 -309 345013 013 025 000 00
181330 2712N 08950W 4976 05892 0284 -060 -298 349013 014 026 000 00
181400 2710N 08950W 4972 05887 0282 -060 -285 349014 014 027 000 00
181430 2707N 08951W 4976 05893 0285 -060 -287 350015 016 025 000 03
181500 2704N 08951W 4976 05893 0288 -060 -286 349016 017 027 000 00
181530 2701N 08952W 5117 05691 0290 -041 -285 358014 016 027 000 03
$$
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[cycloneye]

Good site to follow the mission.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[NDG]

It does look better organized on the IR - we'll see what the recon finds, though the water temps are just below 80F north of 25N, so...

Another hurricane season is here - another exercise in egg-walking (lol)...

Frank

Plenty of warm waters north of 25N, the only sub 80 deg SSTs is near the big bend of FL.

[NDG]

I guess the recon is going to investigate first the broad COC instead of going directly towards the MLC.

[Dave]

[Dave]

Operational Altitude

000
URNT15 KNHC 051824
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 08 20130605
181600 2659N 08952W 5305 05408 0273 -019 -311 021010 014 /// /// 03
181630 2656N 08953W 5498 05121 0255 -008 -277 050006 009 /// /// 03
181700 2654N 08953W 5696 04838 0096 -003 -096 028004 005 /// /// 03
181730 2651N 08953W 5900 04555 0099 +013 -056 038007 008 /// /// 03
181800 2649N 08954W 6106 04283 0102 +031 -027 043008 009 /// /// 03
181830 2646N 08954W 6321 04001 0104 +047 -010 030009 011 /// /// 03
181900 2644N 08955W 6546 03715 0099 +068 -003 035011 012 /// /// 03
181930 2641N 08955W 6686 03523 0072 +084 +008 030012 013 026 001 00
182000 2639N 08956W 6705 03495 0066 +085 +010 027013 013 025 000 00
182030 2637N 08956W 6702 03500 0068 +085 +013 022013 014 026 000 03
182100 2635N 08956W 6699 03502 0064 +085 +012 020013 013 026 000 03
182130 2632N 08957W 6700 03500 0066 +085 +011 019014 015 025 000 00
182200 2630N 08957W 6709 03490 0062 +090 +010 020016 016 024 000 03
182230 2628N 08958W 6700 03501 0062 +085 +010 021016 016 025 000 03
182300 2626N 08958W 6700 03501 0066 +085 +011 022016 017 025 000 03
182330 2624N 08958W 6700 03500 0069 +085 +012 024018 018 025 000 03
182400 2621N 08959W 6702 03497 0068 +085 +016 023018 018 025 000 00
182430 2619N 08959W 6701 03498 0068 +085 +013 023019 019 025 000 00
182500 2617N 08959W 6700 03498 0067 +085 +014 024019 019 024 000 00
182530 2615N 09000W 6701 03497 0066 +085 +018 025019 019 025 000 00
$$

[robbielyn]

looking at visible and wv radar this storms convection is lessening. the cold blue towering tops are also lessening. dry air also sheer still blowing off those cloud tops.

[Stormcenter]

Whatever becomes of 91L it sure "looks" like it's headed toward the Apalachicola beach area. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 91, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 251N, 883W, 30, 1008, DB

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like recon is beginning their descent. They aren't that close, yet the first surface pressure reading is 1006mb...it should not be long before we know for sure, but the satellite presentation is getting better with every frame

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 051827
XXAA 55185 99272 70898 08179 99008 26820 09018 00075 26220 09019
92760 20800 09024 85491 18000 08518 70138 10844 05015 50586 05573
35513 88999 77999
31313 09608 81813
61616 AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 03
62626 MBL WND 09022 AEV 07520 DLM WND 08015 008498 WL150 09019 08
3 REL 2718N08983W 181344 SPG 2718N08987W 182223 =
XXBB 55188 99272 70898 08179 00008 26820 11921 20400 22850 18000
33710 11450 44597 01823 55587 01458 66558 00359 77544 00777 88513
02574 99498 06173
21212 00008 09018 11974 09024 22920 09025 33850 08518 44727 08012
55685 05015 66619 08012 77540 08010 88529 04510 99498 35014
31313 09608 81813
61616 AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 03
62626 MBL WND 09022 AEV 07520 DLM WND 08015 008498 WL150 09019 08
3 REL 2718N08983W 181344 SPG 2718N08987W 182223 =
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051834
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 09 20130605
182600 2613N 09000W 6748 03451 0075 +089 +020 025020 020 025 000 00
182630 2611N 09000W 6921 03235 0071 +103 +030 033014 020 025 000 03
182700 2609N 08959W 7108 03022 0083 +112 +057 042009 010 026 001 00
182730 2608N 08957W 7331 02767 0091 +124 +079 047010 012 027 001 03
182800 2606N 08956W 7564 02505 0098 +139 +092 057011 013 027 000 00
182830 2605N 08954W 7806 02243 0102 +153 +111 052010 011 026 000 03
182900 2604N 08953W 8056 01972 0107 +157 +122 046010 011 027 000 03
182930 2602N 08951W 8313 01703 0109 +168 +133 044010 011 027 000 03
183000 2601N 08950W 8560 01448 0108 +178 +154 070010 011 027 000 03
183030 2600N 08948W 8816 01194 0111 +184 +172 069012 013 /// /// 03
183100 2559N 08947W 9076 00933 0104 +198 +184 071015 015 /// /// 03
183130 2557N 08946W 9345 00680 0097 +209 +201 070017 018 /// /// 03
183200 2556N 08944W 9435 00585 0086 +218 +202 070019 019 /// /// 03
183230 2555N 08943W 9413 00602 0084 +215 +200 072019 019 /// /// 03
183300 2554N 08942W 9421 00596 0085 +215 +200 074020 021 /// /// 03
183330 2553N 08941W 9420 00597 0085 +215 +200 075020 020 016 000 00
183400 2552N 08940W 9421 00596 0084 +213 +207 076019 019 020 000 03
183430 2551N 08938W 9421 00594 0083 +215 +204 073018 019 019 000 03
183500 2550N 08937W 9421 00594 0082 +215 +202 072018 018 018 000 00
183530 2549N 08936W 9418 00596 0082 +215 +201 073017 018 020 000 03
$$
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