ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

DROPSONDE OB 3 DECODED

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 18:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 5th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 27.2N 89.8W
Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level   Geo. Height   Air Temp.   Dew Point   Wind Direction   Wind Speed
1008mb (29.77 inHg)   Sea Level (Surface)   26.8°C (80.2°F)   24.8°C (76.6°F)   90° (from the E)   18 knots (21 mph)
1000mb   75m (246 ft)   26.2°C (79.2°F)   24.2°C (75.6°F)   90° (from the E)   19 knots (22 mph)
925mb   760m (2,493 ft)   20.8°C (69.4°F)   20.8°C (69.4°F)   90° (from the E)   24 knots (28 mph)
850mb   1,491m (4,892 ft)   18.0°C (64.4°F)   18.0°C (64.4°F)   85° (from the E)   18 knots (21 mph)
700mb   3,138m (10,295 ft)   10.8°C (51.4°F)   6.4°C (43.5°F)   50° (from the NE)   15 knots (17 mph)
500mb   5,860m (19,226 ft)   -5.5°C (22.1°F)   Approximately -28°C (-18°F)   355° (from the N)   13 knots (15 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 18:13Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Location of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 27.18N 89.83W
Time of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 18:13:44Z

Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 27.18N 89.87W
Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 18:22:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 498mb to 1008mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 19 knots (22 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 07520


[NDG]

Last couple of vis sat loop it appears there is an LLC by the MLC. Lets see if the recon confirms what I am seeing.

[Downdraft]

It depends on the surface and air temperature and dewpoint. In Florida in June with a tropical air mass nearby, modest destabilization can happen very quickly, which increases with time.

I asked because i live just north in tampa and they said the likelyhood of weak tornadoes may be lessened due to cloud cover but we are having a little sun or you can see the sun shining through the clouds so I was wondering if the air in the hernando county area is destabilizing which would amp up chances for tornadoes

SPC Day Two outlook shows "slight" risk for severe weather in your area for this system. It can't be ruled out but the probability is very low.

[Dave]

[Evil Jeremy]

Imo we have a TD

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[robbielyn]

It depends on the surface and air temperature and dewpoint. In Florida in June with a tropical air mass nearby, modest destabilization can happen very quickly, which increases with time.

I asked because i live just north in tampa and they said the likelyhood of weak tornadoes may be lessened due to cloud cover but we are having a little sun or you can see the sun shining through the clouds so I was wondering if the air in the hernando county area is destabilizing which would amp up chances for tornadoes

SPC Day Two outlook shows "slight" risk for severe weather in your area for this system. It can't be ruled out but the probability is very low.

can u list the reason or reason why the risk is low so I understand? the shear is going to be there at least but what is lacking for our area?

[Aric Dunn]

There is definitely a llc at the edge of the convection. quite evident on satellite. should be td or Ts.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051844
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 10 20130605
183600 2548N 08935W 9420 00595 0082 +215 +201 074017 017 018 000 03
183630 2547N 08934W 9418 00596 0081 +218 +199 072018 019 018 000 03
183700 2546N 08933W 9420 00594 0081 +216 +199 074019 019 018 000 03
183730 2545N 08931W 9418 00595 0082 +218 +198 074018 019 015 001 03
183800 2544N 08930W 9391 00611 0071 +216 +195 073019 020 018 000 03
183830 2543N 08929W 9016 00956 0062 +197 +181 070019 019 /// /// 03
183900 2542N 08928W 8767 01215 0077 +182 +173 061016 019 013 000 00
183930 2540N 08927W 8748 01240 0086 +184 +170 057014 015 017 000 00
184000 2539N 08925W 8750 01236 0085 +182 +170 056014 015 017 001 00
184030 2538N 08924W 8749 01239 0085 +185 +166 056014 015 017 000 03
184100 2537N 08923W 8853 01157 0104 +188 +170 053015 015 015 000 03
184130 2536N 08921W 9154 00866 0107 +205 +182 064016 016 019 000 00
184200 2534N 08920W 9427 00608 0105 +218 +196 077016 017 020 001 03
184230 2533N 08919W 9693 00355 0094 +227 +207 075018 018 019 000 03
184300 2532N 08918W 9773 00272 0082 +230 +220 075018 018 019 000 03
184330 2531N 08916W 9769 00273 0079 +231 +219 074018 019 019 000 03
184400 2530N 08915W 9770 00273 0079 +230 +221 070018 019 018 000 00
184430 2529N 08914W 9769 00273 0078 +230 +220 071017 019 019 000 03
184500 2528N 08913W 9772 00272 0079 +231 +222 070017 017 017 000 03
184530 2527N 08912W 9772 00271 0078 +231 +220 070016 016 014 000 03
$$
;

[GCANE]

Here's the anticyclone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF


Wow, UL outflow improving dramatically.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

[NDG]

This is where I am seeing a possible LLC developing just west of the MLC.

[Aric Dunn]

This is where I am seeing a possible LLC developing just west of the MLC.

exactly !

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like there was a low pressure center in the 26n 90w area (to the NE of that looks like) pressures then started rising but they are headed to the convection and pressures are falling again. They still have about 4 degrees of longitude to cover before they get there

[Extratropical94]

This is where I am seeing a possible LLC developing just west of the MLC.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 8c780c.jpg

Looks like this is the main feature right now. The other circulation to its WSW seems to have dissipated on the visible loop.

[Aric Dunn]

A bouy wnw of key west reporting sustained 40mph/

[wxman57]

This is where I am seeing a possible LLC developing just west of the MLC.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 8c780c.jpg

Buoy/ship reports put a weak center about 150 miles west of there - well west of any convection.

[Dave]

[adam0983]

I think we see tropical storm Andrea at 5pm

[cycloneye]

This is where I am seeing a possible LLC developing just west of the MLC.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 8c780c.jpg

Buoy/ship reports put a weak center about 150 miles west of there - well west of any convection.

That one is dying as a new LLC forms to it's east.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051854
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 11 20130605
184600 2526N 08911W 9767 00276 0079 +230 +223 071015 015 011 001 03
184630 2525N 08909W 9770 00271 0078 +230 +223 073014 014 010 000 00
184700 2524N 08908W 9769 00271 0077 +230 +224 076013 014 013 000 03
184730 2523N 08907W 9761 00284 0081 +230 +223 075011 013 010 000 00
184800 2521N 08906W 9772 00272 0081 +232 +224 075010 011 010 000 00
184830 2520N 08904W 9771 00273 0080 +235 +225 079010 011 009 000 00
184900 2519N 08903W 9770 00273 0080 +235 +225 086009 010 008 000 00
184930 2518N 08901W 9769 00275 0081 +235 +222 086009 010 010 000 03
185000 2516N 08900W 9769 00276 0081 +235 +221 087009 010 013 000 03
185030 2515N 08859W 9769 00275 0080 +235 +224 090009 009 010 000 03
185100 2514N 08857W 9771 00267 0076 +235 +225 088010 010 010 001 03
185130 2513N 08856W 9769 00270 0075 +235 +225 091010 010 012 000 03
185200 2511N 08855W 9769 00270 0073 +237 +220 100009 010 013 000 03
185230 2510N 08853W 9772 00266 0072 +240 +216 105008 009 012 000 03
185300 2509N 08852W 9771 00266 0072 +240 +216 102008 009 012 000 00
185330 2508N 08851W 9770 00267 0073 +238 +222 106009 009 013 000 00
185400 2506N 08849W 9770 00267 0072 +235 +224 108009 010 014 001 03
185430 2505N 08848W 9771 00266 0071 +236 +224 111008 009 012 000 03
185500 2504N 08846W 9768 00269 0072 +235 +225 108008 009 011 000 03
185530 2503N 08845W 9772 00266 0072 +236 +221 102008 008 012 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

This is where I am seeing a possible LLC developing just west of the MLC.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 8c780c.jpg

Buoy/ship reports put a weak center about 150 miles west of there - well west of any convection.

Quiet evident the LLC that I am pointing out on HR vis sat loop, IMO.