ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

since the center is farther east and the direction of motion would likely bring it in farther south more cedar key the panhandle

[SunnyThoughts]

Daughter headed down from Pensacola to Ft. Lauderdale Late Thursday night/early Friday morning...for a concert. Was hoping she wouldn't have to drive through flooding rains to get there. You guys be safe down there... sure wish we could get a little of that rain here.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052004
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 18 20130605
195600 2600N 08541W 9713 00328 0092 +203 +203 123031 038 047 033 03
195630 2600N 08543W 9713 00329 0090 +210 +210 105026 029 058 040 00
195700 2600N 08545W 9687 00351 0090 +203 +203 106038 040 054 028 03
195730 2600N 08548W 9711 00329 0089 +207 +207 102034 037 044 020 00
195800 2600N 08550W 9703 00334 0088 +207 +207 105036 037 042 018 00
195830 2600N 08552W 9697 00342 0087 +208 +208 101034 036 041 013 00
195900 2600N 08554W 9726 00323 0093 +211 +211 095031 035 033 012 00
195930 2600N 08556W 9831 00222 0087 +217 +215 101031 032 033 011 00
200000 2600N 08558W 9868 00191 0087 +216 +212 105031 032 036 014 03
200030 2600N 08600W 9876 00178 0085 +211 +211 104033 034 038 011 03
200100 2600N 08602W 9878 00181 0085 +212 +212 104034 035 038 013 00
200130 2600N 08604W 9872 00183 0083 +213 +212 102035 035 036 012 00
200200 2600N 08606W 9874 00180 0081 +218 +209 104034 035 036 010 00
200230 2600N 08609W 9879 00175 0081 +219 +216 099034 036 035 010 00
200300 2600N 08611W 9878 00176 0080 +219 +217 098034 036 038 009 00
200330 2600N 08613W 9882 00170 0078 +217 +212 097034 035 038 006 00
200400 2600N 08615W 9877 00175 0078 +219 +204 095038 039 039 008 00
200430 2600N 08617W 9881 00171 0077 +218 +210 093038 039 039 010 00
200500 2600N 08619W 9875 00174 //// +210 //// 094038 039 038 010 05
200530 2559N 08620W 9878 00171 0075 +215 +210 091039 040 036 008 03
$$
;

40 kts fl; 58 kts sfmr no flags

[Evil Jeremy]

since the center is farther east and the direction of motion would likely bring it in farther south more cedar key the panhandle

But from cedar key to where? Punta Gorda? Ft Myers?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Here we go.

[CrazyC83]

since the center is farther east and the direction of motion would likely bring it in farther south more cedar key the panhandle

But from cedar key to where? Punta Gorda? Ft Myers?

I'd have to guess a watch as far as the Tampa Bay area, maybe Longboat Key. Maybe not a warning since the models take it in west of Cedar Key, towards Apalachicola. The east coast might need TS watches as well depending on any status changes or intensity changes that may take place going upward...

[Aric Dunn]

since the center is farther east and the direction of motion would likely bring it in farther south more cedar key the panhandle

But from cedar key to where? Punta Gorda? Ft Myers?

probably not anywhere south of tampa. but thats where the strongest winds are going to be and the heavy rain and probably severe weather.

[Dave]

[Hurricane Andrew]

I can help with GE images if Dave needs some relieving.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, the models were initiated much further west right? Roughly where the earlier low center appeared to be? So I would say you can basically take the consensus line from there and shift it maybe 100 miles east, no? Could be some serious rain and minor coastal flooding around the Tampa area for sure, given the winds and storm trajectory

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Tampa Bay may not get the worst winds, but will likely get huge amounts of rain none the less. And being in the NE quad, the severe weather threat will be higher too. It looks like the big plume of moisture to the east of center will certainly soak us thoroughly.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, the models were initiated much further west right? Roughly where the earlier low center appeared to be? So I would say you can basically take the consensus line from there and shift it maybe 100 miles east, no? Could be some serious rain and minor coastal flooding around the Tampa area for sure, given the winds and storm trajectory

yeah the models are farther west. the general motion wont change so yeah track would be shifted east.

[Hurricane Andrew]

First recon post of the season!


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Aric Dunn]

Tampa Bay may not get the worst winds, but will likely get huge amounts of rain none the less. And being in the NE quad, the severe weather threat will be higher too. It looks like the big plume of moisture to the east of center will certainly soak us thoroughly.

because its moving ene to ne the the right front would be se which would put tampa in the right front.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052014
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 19 20130605
200600 2557N 08622W 9880 00170 0074 +216 +208 091041 042 036 006 03
200630 2557N 08623W 9874 00171 0072 +222 +204 092044 045 033 004 03
200700 2557N 08626W 9877 00169 0068 +224 +202 092043 045 039 001 00
200730 2558N 08628W 9722 00303 0062 +222 +195 092043 044 037 002 03
200800 2558N 08630W 9565 00448 0070 +211 +194 094043 044 035 001 03
200830 2559N 08632W 9605 00417 0081 +210 +198 092042 044 036 004 03
200900 2559N 08634W 9814 00234 0082 +217 +209 091038 040 034 001 00
200930 2600N 08636W 9875 00174 0075 +224 +214 094037 038 033 001 00
201000 2600N 08638W 9878 00171 0075 +225 +217 095035 037 031 002 00
201030 2600N 08640W 9877 00172 0076 +225 +214 095033 035 032 000 03
201100 2600N 08642W 9881 00171 0076 +226 +214 093034 036 032 002 03
201130 2600N 08645W 9875 00174 0075 +227 +214 089034 035 031 001 03
201200 2600N 08647W 9881 00170 0075 +230 +211 085031 033 030 000 03
201230 2600N 08649W 9874 00174 0074 +230 +210 085034 035 032 000 00
201300 2600N 08651W 9881 00169 0075 +230 +209 085034 036 034 000 03
201330 2600N 08653W 9878 00175 0077 +230 +210 085034 035 031 003 03
201400 2600N 08655W 9876 00177 0080 +229 +211 081031 035 031 002 03
201430 2600N 08657W 9886 00170 0081 +230 +208 080031 033 031 000 00
201500 2600N 08659W 9870 00183 0080 +229 +207 080033 034 032 000 03
201530 2600N 08701W 9878 00178 0081 +229 +209 079032 034 033 002 03
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Tampa Bay may not get the worst winds, but will likely get huge amounts of rain none the less. And being in the NE quad, the severe weather threat will be higher too. It looks like the big plume of moisture to the east of center will certainly soak us thoroughly.

Yes but being in the NE quad along with an active JET, the tornado possibility certainly exists. Discussed further by NWS Tampa below, released at 4pmEST. I expect some possible Tornado watches to go up for the Tampa Bay area:

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
KEY WEST/KBYX RADAR HAS SAMPLED SEVERAL MESOCYCLONES IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY. CONCERN FOR A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE TORNADO EVENT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY CONTINUES TO EXIST. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING ANY 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES IN THIS AREA ABOVE 90 M2/S2 AT
18Z/ALMOST AT THIS CURRENT TIME. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
RESOLVED THAT THE BEST SHEAR WOULD BE OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...WITH THE 12Z NAM TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. AN HOURLY
LAPS SOUNDING IN THE CHARLOTTE COUNTY/PGD AREA PROVIDED A HELICITY
VALUE AROUND 200 M2/S2...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
350 M2/S2 OFFERING AROUND THAT AREA ON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MESOANALYSIS. SOME CONCERN THAT LATEST GUIDANCE MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE TO
THIS CONVECTION.

HELICITY VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH PARTS OF
THE SUNCOAST EXCEEDING 100 M2/S2. BY 06Z...THE LOW COMES CLOSER ON
ITS PASS OFFSHORE AND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET BECOMES MORE ACCESSIBLE TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS...WITH
OVER 200 M2/S2 CLOSING IN ON TAMPA BAY...AND THE 12Z ECMWF...WITH
OVER 130 M2/S2 IN SW FLORIDA...PAINT A BULLS-EYE AT 06Z THURSDAY IN
THE CWA. THE 12Z NAM IS DEFINITELY TRENDING CLOSER TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IN THIS RUN AFTER HAVING BEEN AN OUTLIER IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE HELICITY/SHEAR BEGINS TO STRETCH NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 200 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS IN THE 12Z GFS. TROPICAL MINI
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SITUATION...AND MAY BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE TO PROVIDE A TORNADO THREAT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Dave]

Hurricane Andrew if you want to do graphics go ahead....I'll stay on hdobs.

[OuterBanker]

Btw, will the east shift bring the storm more offshore near the Carolinas or will it still fall in the trough?

[wxman57]

Let's see if the plane can find any significant NE or NW winds as they fly farther west. Still not convinced it will be upgraded. We knew it had those kind of winds based on buoy reports, but is the LLC well-defined enough?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Tampa Bay may not get the worst winds, but will likely get huge amounts of rain none the less. And being in the NE quad, the severe weather threat will be higher too. It looks like the big plume of moisture to the east of center will certainly soak us thoroughly.

because its moving ene to ne the the right front would be se which would put tampa in the right front.

yup, exactly. we'll initially be in the NE quad (right front) as it moves towards and over the penninsula. weather stations were calling for increased tornado threat tomorrow with expected high shear in the atmosphere. --and that was early this morning before things shifted even further east today.

rain just started at my house in Clearwater. just light drizzle right now. been overcast most of the day though.