ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[Aric Dunn]

looking at current motion from sat and that the center appears to be following the mlc pretty good atm its quite possible it comes in very near tampa.

[gatorcane]

Special marine statement from NWS for offshore waters off of SW Florida with the strong echos we are seeing there on radar:

AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT OVER WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...OR ABOUT 35 NM WEST OF CAPTIVA...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=analysisWind

[wxman57]

It probably won't get much better organized than it is today. Rain threat for Florida. All TS winds remaining offshore or brushing the beaches.

[Hurricaneman]

I should have stated it better, landfall from New Port Richey to where Debby made landfall last year, and I have no idea why it hasn't been renumered, is it because there was no vortex message

[psyclone]

looking at current motion from sat and that the center appears to be following the mlc pretty good atm its quite possible it comes in very near tampa.

Send 'er on over. these are the ones I'll accept here...sheared clunkers.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052114
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 25 20130605
210600 2443N 08616W 9832 00193 0052 +240 +227 214028 031 018 003 03
210630 2442N 08617W 9841 00188 0055 +240 +228 205024 026 016 000 00
210700 2443N 08619W 9842 00187 0055 +243 +229 206023 024 021 000 00
210730 2443N 08621W 9843 00186 0053 +245 +225 209022 024 021 001 00
210800 2443N 08623W 9843 00186 0053 +245 +224 210022 022 021 000 00
210830 2443N 08625W 9842 00186 0053 +243 +224 211022 022 021 000 00
210900 2443N 08627W 9842 00186 0053 +241 +222 216022 022 021 000 00
210930 2443N 08629W 9842 00187 0053 +240 +224 218020 021 021 000 00
211000 2443N 08631W 9842 00187 0054 +240 +226 224020 020 019 000 00
211030 2442N 08633W 9841 00187 0054 +240 +224 234020 021 021 000 00
211100 2442N 08635W 9843 00187 0054 +240 +223 240021 022 022 000 00
211130 2442N 08637W 9843 00187 0054 +240 +223 244020 021 023 000 03
211200 2442N 08638W 9843 00187 0054 +240 +225 250020 020 022 001 00
211230 2442N 08640W 9841 00187 0054 +239 +225 255020 021 021 001 00
211300 2442N 08642W 9841 00187 0054 +238 +227 257019 020 023 000 03
211330 2442N 08644W 9840 00189 0055 +236 +225 261020 020 021 001 00
211400 2442N 08646W 9843 00187 0055 +240 +220 263021 021 021 001 00
211430 2442N 08648W 9842 00188 0056 +241 +211 265019 021 020 000 00
211500 2442N 08650W 9842 00188 0055 +244 +209 269019 020 019 000 00
211530 2442N 08652W 9841 00188 0055 +240 +217 275017 019 018 001 00
$$
;

[MGC]

Looks like an eddy rotating around the broad low. Will be interesting to see if they upgrade. I remember Grace several years ago...so, who knows what the NHC will do.....MGC

[gatorcane]

looking at current motion from sat and that the center appears to be following the mlc pretty good atm its quite possible it comes in very near tampa.

Send 'er on over. these are the ones I'll accept here...sheared clunkers.

Certainly looks like quite a rain event for folks along the west coast of Florida. Question remains whether there will be any tornadoes out of this? NWS has mentioned the possibility in the past several discussions.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

local weather indicated at 4pm that we could see a training event rain setup here, with bands traveling south to north along the coast, and could pick up significantly more rain than the 3-5" expected generally across the area.

[Dave]

I'll pick it up again

[jlauderdal]

The radar is really looking impressive right now. It is going to be a very rainy night for Florida. When do you think the rain will get out of Florida? I was going to plan a trip to Orlando this weekend. Should I cancel my trip?

Rainfall depends on what partof florida..no you shouldnt cancel due to this system

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[cycloneye]

I found this in social media,the new dominant thing. It shows all the NHC people looking at the data.

[AdamFirst]

Certainly looks like quite a rain event for folks along the west coast of Florida. Question remains whether there will be any tornadoes out of this? NWS has mentioned the possibility in the past several discussions.

SPC thinks so, as they've indicated a Slight Risk area for the west coast on Thursday.

...NRN-CNTRL FL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
IT APPEARS MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY UNDER-REPRESENTING THE QUALITY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED 12Z/05 TBW AND KEY
RAOBS BY 1-2 G/KG LOWEST 100MB MIXING RATIO...AND THIS TREND IS ALSO
NOTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE PROBABLY TOO
RESERVED IN SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD.

MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY REGARDING THE MAIN BELT OF STRONGER
H85 FLOW OVERSPREADING FL ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS
DIFFERENCE...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. COMBINED
WITH A VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE WIND
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT MINI SUPERCELLS/LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES/ISOLD WIND
DAMAGE.

[vacanechaser]

I found this in social media,the new dominant thing. It shows all the NHC people looking at the data.

i see jack bevens back!!! lol


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[psyclone]

looking at current motion from sat and that the center appears to be following the mlc pretty good atm its quite possible it comes in very near tampa.

Send 'er on over. these are the ones I'll accept here...sheared clunkers.

Certainly looks like quite a rain event for folks along the west coast of Florida. Question remains whether there will be any tornadoes out of this? NWS has mentioned the possibility in the past several discussions.

I expect there will be several tornadoes and probably a couple of those long life (12hr-type) tornado watches you expect with tropical systems. we're already seeing good tornadic signatures in the marine zones and that will be spreading onshore late tonight into tomorrow.

[Dave]

I'm going to run w/o clouds for awhile to show the wind barbs better....may be 1 behind if so will get it caught up in a couple minutes.

[brunota2003]

The pic "So, where are we having dinner at tonight? Man I wish this recon flight would hurry up already!"

[Extratropical94]

It has been renumbered!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306052121
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2013, DB, O, 2013060300, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012013
AL, 01, 2013060418, , BEST, 0, 239N, 870W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2013060500, , BEST, 0, 243N, 870W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2013060506, , BEST, 0, 246N, 870W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2013060512, , BEST, 0, 249N, 869W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 200, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,