ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

[psyclone]

New special marine warning posted, now up through Tarpon Springs just north of Clearwater:


Special Marine Warning
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ873-876-052215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0041.130605T2111Z-130605T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
511 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL...
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT 17 NM SOUTH OF M13 REEF...OR
ABOUT 42 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANASOTA KEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 2692 8332 2698 8298 2660 8295 2658 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 155DEG 23KT 2667 8308

$$

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... a-tUdJeZ6w

remember the warning text always includes the full marine legs but if you look on the radar at the polygon warning area you'll see this is nowhere near tarpon springs or clearwater...there are 2 small warnings, both of which are well offshore. having said that, this is an indication of what will be moving onshore much later tonight and tomorrow in those regions.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KBIX 052132
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013
A. 05/20:53:20Z
B. 25 deg 11 min N
086 deg 38 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 310 deg 27 nm
F. 057 deg 36 kt
G. 303 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 21 C / 243 m
J. 25 C / 242 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Stormcenter]

Still very ragged looking despite the upgrade to TS. Also still dealing with a ton of dry air.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KBIX 052132
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013
A. 05/20:53:20Z
B. 25 deg 11 min N
086 deg 38 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 310 deg 27 nm
F. 057 deg 36 kt
G. 303 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 21 C / 243 m
J. 25 C / 242 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KBIX 052132
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013
A. 05/20:53:20Z
B. 25 deg 11 min N
086 deg 38 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 310 deg 27 nm
F. 057 deg 36 kt
G. 303 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 21 C / 243 m
J. 25 C / 242 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

Done for now, gotta eat and do Homework.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052134
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 27 20130605
212600 2513N 08700W 9842 00177 0044 +230 +220 059022 023 016 000 00
212630 2515N 08700W 9842 00176 0043 +230 +220 059025 027 019 001 03
212700 2517N 08700W 9844 00174 0042 +230 +216 054027 029 022 001 00
212730 2518N 08700W 9842 00175 0041 +230 +217 054029 029 024 000 00
212800 2520N 08700W 9842 00176 0041 +233 +215 057029 030 024 000 00
212830 2522N 08700W 9840 00180 0045 +230 +219 056028 029 024 001 00
212900 2524N 08700W 9842 00178 0045 +230 +219 057029 029 023 003 00
212930 2525N 08700W 9843 00178 0046 +230 +219 057029 030 026 001 00
213000 2527N 08700W 9843 00181 0049 +230 +216 061028 029 025 001 03
213030 2528N 08659W 9842 00180 0047 +230 +214 061025 026 /// /// 03
213100 2528N 08657W 9832 00187 0046 +230 +216 055025 027 020 001 00
213130 2526N 08656W 9841 00177 0044 +229 +217 050026 027 024 001 00
213200 2525N 08654W 9843 00176 0043 +227 +219 048026 027 025 002 00
213230 2524N 08653W 9841 00176 0041 +229 +219 047026 027 022 001 00
213300 2523N 08652W 9853 00164 0038 +232 +219 041027 028 024 000 00
213330 2521N 08650W 9831 00176 0030 +232 +219 035026 028 021 001 00
213400 2520N 08649W 9805 00198 0030 +231 +218 032021 024 016 000 03
213430 2519N 08648W 9806 00197 0029 +234 +215 028017 020 010 002 00
213500 2518N 08646W 9806 00196 0028 +235 +213 037014 016 009 000 03
213530 2517N 08645W 9806 00194 0026 +235 +213 037013 014 002 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Folks, check the NWS radar, new strong cells forming closer to the coast off of SW Florida. I imagine new warnings will go up soon for these cells:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/

Is going to be a rough night if some of those cells make it to the coast this evening.
Already wind gusts close to 30 mph here in Orlando with some of storms passing through.

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 10

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 20:53:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°11'N 86°38'W (25.1833N 86.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 307 miles (495 km) to the W (278°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 57° at 36kts (From the ENE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 243m (797ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:69
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z

[KWT]

Well we have the first TS of the year, so the 2013 hurricane season starts!

[brunota2003]

Definitely looks like there are a few "centers" floating around the mean gyro.

[sunnyday]

Local east fl. met just announced Andrea's naming and said that TS warnings will go up soon for Florida's west coast. Does that leave the east coast of Fl. in the clear (around the treasure coast, palm beach, or Miami)?
Thank you for your answers.

[ozonepete]

I'm quite curious where the track will wind up. The direction of the center has more of an eastward component than I expected.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm quite curious where the track will wind up. The direction of the center has more of an eastward component than I expected.

well clearly it cant do what the models said.. no way it can get to panhandle. the shear is clearly dragging the llc along with the mlc to ene not enough water to make that far. tampa to cedar key area.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052144
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 28 20130605
213600 2516N 08644W 9807 00192 0024 +235 +216 032012 012 002 000 00
213630 2515N 08643W 9805 00192 0023 +235 +217 020012 013 002 001 03
213700 2514N 08641W 9806 00191 0022 +241 +214 015009 012 003 000 00
213730 2513N 08640W 9806 00192 0024 +234 +217 013011 012 004 000 03
213800 2512N 08638W 9806 00191 0024 +231 +223 009010 011 002 001 03
213830 2511N 08637W 9806 00191 0022 +237 +223 336008 009 003 002 00
213900 2511N 08635W 9806 00193 0024 +239 +225 317007 009 002 001 03
213930 2510N 08633W 9807 00189 0022 +240 +227 289007 008 002 000 00
214000 2510N 08632W 9807 00188 0020 +240 +230 254011 013 004 003 03
214030 2509N 08630W 9804 00193 0021 +240 +230 231019 021 002 001 03
214100 2510N 08628W 9801 00196 0023 +240 +229 214022 023 019 000 00
214130 2511N 08627W 9805 00191 0023 +236 +230 207027 028 019 000 00
214200 2512N 08626W 9808 00193 0027 +235 +229 205028 028 018 001 00
214230 2514N 08624W 9805 00197 0029 +235 +228 203027 028 019 000 00
214300 2515N 08623W 9810 00194 0030 +235 +227 196027 028 019 001 00
214330 2516N 08622W 9804 00199 0031 +236 +225 190028 029 022 001 03
214400 2517N 08620W 9799 00205 0031 +235 +221 188029 030 019 001 00
214430 2518N 08619W 9807 00199 0033 +236 +224 189027 029 012 002 00
214500 2519N 08617W 9810 00198 0034 +237 +226 182027 029 015 001 00
214530 2519N 08615W 9802 00204 0035 +237 +225 180029 030 017 001 00
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

Pressure down to 1002..impressive drop

[gatorcane]

I'm quite curious where the track will wind up. The direction of the center has more of an eastward component than I expected.

Yes me too, I keep watching this thing going further and further east all day. Models are having a tough time with the shear and center reformations further east.

[SunnyThoughts]

1002 yeah quite an impressive drop. Hold steady there Andrea..nobody wants to see ya strut your stuff any more than you are doing now.

[johngaltfla]

I'm quite curious where the track will wind up. The direction of the center has more of an eastward component than I expected.

well clearly it cant do what the models said.. no way it can get to panhandle. the shear is clearly dragging the llc along with the mlc to ene not enough water to make that far. tampa to cedar key area.

No doubt about it. I think it comes ashore in the same region but let's hope the forward speed cranks up and prevents this sucker from lingering. I don't mind catching up on the annual deficit but we don't need 10"+ like some areas might see.