ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[MGC]

I'm speechless....Grace the second. Anyway, I guess the coin flip went the upgrade way.....MGC

[Dave]

[Stormcenter]

It really is not impressive looking at all but hey "Heads we name it and tails we don't".

I'm speechless....Grace the second. Anyway, I guess the coin flip went the upgrade way.....MGC

[Downdraft]

Sorry I posted this in wrong place.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
NNNN

[psyclone]

I'm speechless....Grace the second. Anyway, I guess the coin flip went the upgrade way.....MGC

She's not a looker but she's no Grace either. That was a truly baffling event.

[dizzyfish]

Hi Jesse and all! West Pasco checking in. Man I really, really hate to see this. We had enough of the rain last year and I'm not ready for more.
We have flood watches, coastal flood watch and offshore gale watch so far here. Gonna be a long night and day tomorrow. I'll be biting my nails as I will be away down in Tampa at work.

[johngaltfla]

So when does the Andrea thread start?

[ronjon]

It really is not impressive looking at all but hey "Heads we name it and tails we don't".

I'm speechless....Grace the second. Anyway, I guess the coin flip went the upgrade way.....MGC

Typical early June TS - what's your point? It's got 1002 mb pressure and closed circulation.

[tolakram]

So when does the Andrea thread start?

When the NHC officially releases their advisory.

[HurricaneBelle]

So when does the Andrea thread start?

When the NHC officially releases their advisory.

which is now:

TNT21 KNHC 052154
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
2200 UTC WED JUN 05 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.5W AT 05/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.5W AT 05/2200Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052154
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 29 20130605
214600 2520N 08614W 9807 00203 0038 +238 +225 179030 031 020 001 00
214630 2521N 08612W 9810 00202 0038 +240 +223 174029 030 016 001 00
214700 2522N 08610W 9806 00205 0039 +240 +227 175028 029 021 001 00
214730 2522N 08609W 9798 00211 0040 +239 +227 170031 035 022 002 00
214800 2523N 08607W 9801 00209 0040 +238 +224 158033 036 025 003 00
214830 2524N 08606W 9809 00208 0043 +237 +222 150029 031 028 002 00
214900 2524N 08604W 9805 00211 0045 +235 +223 149028 029 027 001 00
214930 2525N 08603W 9805 00214 0046 +235 +222 150028 029 028 002 03
215000 2526N 08601W 9805 00213 0046 +235 +225 143027 029 025 006 00
215030 2527N 08600W 9805 00211 0045 +232 +228 137027 028 025 004 00
215100 2528N 08559W 9812 00208 0047 +226 //// 122023 028 026 005 01
215130 2530N 08558W 9804 00215 0048 +223 +223 110022 024 030 007 00
215200 2531N 08558W 9804 00214 0048 +221 +219 105023 024 027 008 00
215230 2533N 08557W 9802 00216 0049 +220 +215 102025 025 026 005 03
215300 2534N 08557W 9804 00216 0050 +220 +214 104024 025 029 000 00
215330 2536N 08557W 9806 00215 0052 +220 +212 104025 025 023 003 00
215400 2537N 08556W 9806 00216 0054 +221 +213 106025 025 023 004 00
215430 2539N 08556W 9807 00217 0054 +225 +209 106024 025 021 005 00
215500 2540N 08556W 9806 00217 0056 +215 +215 112024 025 030 008 00
215530 2542N 08555W 9814 00216 0059 +218 +218 106025 026 028 010 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

First advisory of the 2013 Hurricane Season!

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
2200 UTC WED JUN 05 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.5W AT 05/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.5W AT 05/2200Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

Public Advisory:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURDAY AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS
ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN

[floridasun78]

Google map got low more south and weatherman show it here on news look more sw of Fort Myer

[Extratropical94]

You probably wont see an advisory until 530 or 6 because the recon is still investigating

You nailed it.

[Dave]

[Hurricane_Luis]

And there we have it.

Tropical Storm Andrea

[/URL]

[/URL]

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KBIX 052154
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013
A. 05/21:39:30Z
B. 25 deg 10 min N
086 deg 34 min W
C. NA
D. 25 kt
E. 305 deg 24 nm
F. 035 deg 28 kt
G. 304 deg 18 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 22 C / 244 m
J. 24 C / 274 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 066/45 19:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KBIX 052154
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013
A. 05/21:39:30Z
B. 25 deg 10 min N
086 deg 34 min W
C. NA
D. 25 kt
E. 305 deg 24 nm
F. 035 deg 28 kt
G. 304 deg 18 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 22 C / 244 m
J. 24 C / 274 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 066/45 19:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

[Dean4Storms]

Strange, The 18z NAM does not dig the shortwave as far South as other models still bringing the Low further North into the Panhandle around PCB. Of course it was initialized with the further west location of the Low. But still, the shortwave will need to be monitored over the central MS Valley to see if it digs further south than what the NAM suggests.

I know it's the NAM but I expected it to get with the picture on the 18z and it still hasn't.

[Dave]

DECODED VDM 13

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°10'N 86°34'W (25.1667N 86.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 303 miles (488 km) to the W (278°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 35° at 28kts (From the NE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 244m (801ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:66
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 066/45 19:43:00Z