ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052205
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 30 20130605
215600 2543N 08554W 9797 00231 0058 +225 +217 112027 027 029 007 00
215630 2544N 08553W 9813 00214 0056 +222 +217 110027 028 027 001 03
215700 2545N 08552W 9808 00217 0055 +222 +217 113029 030 026 000 03
215730 2545N 08552W 9808 00217 0054 +220 +216 111028 030 027 000 00
215800 2547N 08550W 9804 00217 0053 +220 +215 106027 028 023 000 00
215830 2548N 08549W 9806 00216 0053 +221 +215 114028 029 022 001 00
215900 2549N 08548W 9806 00219 0055 +222 +218 114028 030 022 002 03
215930 2550N 08547W 9805 00220 0055 +220 +218 117028 030 024 003 00
220000 2551N 08545W 9806 00221 0058 +214 //// 114030 032 034 005 05
220030 2553N 08544W 9807 00219 0058 +203 //// 110041 041 037 005 01
220100 2554N 08543W 9802 00224 0059 +204 //// 108041 042 035 004 01
220130 2555N 08542W 9806 00224 0062 +207 +202 104038 041 038 002 00
220200 2556N 08541W 9807 00222 0060 +209 +199 101036 038 035 002 00
220230 2557N 08540W 9807 00221 0060 +214 +195 101037 038 033 003 00
220300 2558N 08539W 9807 00221 0061 +212 +192 103036 038 033 003 00
220330 2559N 08538W 9804 00227 0064 +204 +198 106034 035 035 005 00
220400 2600N 08537W 9804 00227 0065 +199 //// 115034 035 036 011 01
220430 2601N 08536W 9803 00228 0066 +199 +199 119033 034 040 012 00
220500 2602N 08535W 9804 00227 0068 +199 +199 125033 033 042 012 00
220530 2603N 08534W 9807 00225 0067 +202 +202 128033 033 038 010 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

There is based off old model data notice the north jump then ne ..
the models will shift at 00z

[tolakram]

Latest



Live Vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052214
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 31 20130605
220600 2604N 08533W 9805 00227 0066 +204 +201 127033 035 036 005 00
220630 2605N 08531W 9805 00227 0066 +205 +197 128034 037 033 007 00
220700 2606N 08530W 9802 00230 0067 +200 +199 131034 035 035 007 00
220730 2607N 08529W 9808 00226 0068 +215 +191 127036 036 033 007 00
220800 2608N 08528W 9808 00227 0068 +218 +187 131036 037 035 005 03
220830 2609N 08527W 9806 00232 0071 +212 +197 135035 036 032 007 00
220900 2610N 08526W 9810 00227 0071 +214 +203 136036 037 034 005 00
220930 2612N 08524W 9807 00232 0072 +215 +208 137039 040 034 006 00
221000 2613N 08523W 9806 00235 0073 +215 +210 139040 043 034 005 00
221030 2614N 08522W 9805 00233 0073 +213 //// 137037 040 036 005 01
221100 2615N 08521W 9806 00232 0073 +215 //// 134037 038 034 005 01
221130 2616N 08520W 9808 00232 0073 +217 +217 132038 040 033 004 00
221200 2617N 08519W 9805 00235 0073 +218 +209 136041 042 035 006 00
221230 2618N 08517W 9805 00236 0074 +216 +209 134040 042 033 007 00
221300 2619N 08516W 9803 00238 0075 +217 +214 132038 039 035 005 00
221330 2620N 08515W 9806 00235 0075 +219 +216 134037 041 032 006 00
221400 2622N 08514W 9809 00235 0077 +219 +217 132035 038 030 007 00
221430 2623N 08513W 9811 00235 0077 +216 //// 124035 037 036 009 01
221500 2624N 08512W 9555 00443 //// +200 //// 125042 045 034 008 05
221530 2625N 08512W 9108 00857 //// +180 //// 128040 045 /// /// 05
$$
;

[NDG]

Buoy 42003 now confirming the tropical force winds, pressure rapidly falling.

Conditions at 42003 as of
(4:50 pm CDT)
2150 GMT on 06/05/2013:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 143 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.1 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 33.0 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 35.0 kts
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Airboy]

I don't know if i'm wrong, but it looks to be pretty big for an early stage TS?

[ronjon]

Should we give the CMC some kudos on Andrea? We're not far from the 1000 mb storm it predicted.

[Dave]

[NDG]

I don't know if i'm wrong, but it looks to be pretty big for an early stage TS?

Usually storms that come out of a monsoon trough are usually fairly big.

[NDG]

Should we give the CMC some kudos on Andrea? We're not far from the 1000 mb storm it predicted.

Not really, or at least not yet, it was just a couple of days ago that it was predicting a hurricane

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052224
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 32 20130605
221600 2626N 08514W 8690 01263 0055 +164 +153 120040 041 /// /// 03
221630 2628N 08515W 8253 01703 0048 +150 +140 115037 042 /// /// 03
221700 2629N 08517W 7818 02160 0042 +127 +117 107027 036 /// /// 03
221730 2629N 08519W 7412 02605 0034 +106 +101 113025 027 /// /// 05
221800 2630N 08521W 7034 03041 0023 +090 +072 109013 021 /// /// 03
221830 2631N 08523W 6682 03465 0013 +074 +045 134013 016 /// /// 03
221900 2631N 08525W 6410 03812 0019 +050 +029 134017 018 /// /// 03
221930 2632N 08527W 6153 04143 0021 +026 +024 149020 021 /// /// 05
222000 2633N 08529W 5910 04464 //// +004 //// 150015 021 /// /// 05
222030 2633N 08531W 5705 04761 //// -001 //// 144021 022 /// /// 05
222100 2633N 08533W 5524 05016 //// -011 //// 154021 023 /// /// 05
222130 2634N 08535W 5332 05296 0200 -022 //// 154022 023 /// /// 05
222200 2635N 08537W 5154 05563 0215 -036 //// 149018 021 /// /// 05
222230 2636N 08539W 4995 05812 0231 -047 //// 148019 019 /// /// 05
222300 2638N 08540W 4842 06056 0247 -058 -064 123016 019 /// /// 05
222330 2639N 08542W 4699 06289 0262 -069 -078 106012 015 /// /// 03
222400 2640N 08544W 4575 06500 0277 -081 -086 109011 013 033 007 00
222430 2642N 08545W 4478 06672 0292 -093 -100 107010 013 039 008 00
222500 2643N 08547W 4452 06720 0300 -100 -108 124007 009 038 010 00
222530 2645N 08549W 4461 06705 0299 -100 -104 149006 007 040 006 00
$$
;

Mission over...taken her home!

[vacanechaser]

The center relocation more east shifted the models more to the east.

looks like the nhc maybe following the tvcn in the early going.. shifting it a more eastward..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

Hi Jesse. Good to see you back. It looks like things may be active for the team to do chasing this season.

[vacanechaser]

Hi Jesse. Good to see you back. It looks like things may be active for the team to do chasing this season.

howdy.. yes it does.. hope to get out on a few this year.. havent been south of north carolina the past few years.. looking to hit the road again a couple times this year.. although i know many south of here dont want to hear me say that!! lol..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Alyono]

Should we give the CMC some kudos on Andrea? We're not far from the 1000 mb storm it predicted.

Not really, or at least not yet, it was just a couple of days ago that it was predicting a hurricane

CMC NEVER predicted a hurricane. It was predicting a broad, TS the entire time. The surface winds were extremely low given its predicted pressure

[SeminoleWind]

Should we give the CMC some kudos on Andrea? We're not far from the 1000 mb storm it predicted.

Not really, or at least not yet, it was just a couple of days ago that it was predicting a hurricane

CMC NEVER predicted a hurricane. It was predicting a broad, TS the entire time. The surface winds were extremely low given its predicted pressure

So is it to early to name CMC the new "KING"

[Nimbus]

Andrea keeps relocating her LLC as she chases the convection east. Models will probably shift toward a Tampa bay area landfall. Should blow through fairly quickly so the only concern will be localized tornado and downburst winds. Hoping the lower SST's and dry sheer limit her development.