ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[xcool22]

cmc good job

[robbielyn]

why ts warning over by 8am? does that mean worst will be overnight tonight? i thought it withhold be a few hours than that. no offense but i will miss most of it then due to sleeping. i live 2 counties north of pinellas. hernando

[Hurricane Alexis]

Would the eastern relocations of the center increase the rain for eastern southern florida?

[northjaxpro]

Andrea keeps relocating her LLC as she chases the convection east. Models will probably shift toward a Tampa bay area landfall. Should blow through fairly quickly so the only concern will be localized tornado and downburst winds. Hoping the lower SST's and dry sheer limit her development.

Exactly. This will be the primary concern other than heavy rain across our region and areas down across the central peninsula.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="ronjon"]Should we give the CMC some kudos on Andrea? We're not far from the 1000 mb storm it predicted.

Not really, or at least not yet, it was just a couple of days ago that it was predicting a hurricane

CMC NEVER predicted a hurricane. It was predicting a broad, TS the entire time. The surface winds were extremely low given its predicted pressure

So is it to early to name CMC the new "KING" [/quote]
King for a day

[gatorcane]

Radar imagery shows a building squall line about 75 miles SW of Tampa Bay extending South down to just offshore Ft. Myers. I would expect some very gusty winds from these squalls.

[Aric Dunn]

Appears to be still on a ene track almost heading right for tampa.

[summersquall]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/

Wonderful to see everyone. Let the games begin and wishes for everyone's safety this season.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="ronjon"]Should we give the CMC some kudos on Andrea? We're not far from the 1000 mb storm it predicted.

Not really, or at least not yet, it was just a couple of days ago that it was predicting a hurricane

CMC NEVER predicted a hurricane. It was predicting a broad, TS the entire time. The surface winds were extremely low given its predicted pressure

So is it to early to name CMC the new "KING" [/quote]
King for a day

[KG4HPN]

Waiting for the MLB NWS to update their discussion for our area. Whether this comes in as forecast over the Big Bend area or tracks more easterly as some are suggesting here has pretty big implications for our tornado threat tonight and tomorrow. I'll have to figure out if we want to stick it out here in the mobile home, or go invade the in-law's for a day.

[BobHarlem]

This link is a good Florida Radar link (it has the storm track) flhurricane usually does recordings of the various radars and they have one for it at this link.

[tolakram]

Latest

[dizzyfish]

why ts warning over by 8am? does that mean worst will be overnight tonight? i thought it withhold be a few hours than that. no offense but i will miss most of it then due to sleeping. i live 2 counties north of pinellas. hernando

I'm in Pasco just to your south and I just noticed the same thing. I am thinking that will be changed with the next update. If you look at your daily weather icons you will see that they show TS conditions through tomorrow night. I would think we will be in it for sure tomorrow afternoon.

This is not an official forecast and my opinion only.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
800 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

...ANDREA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY
42003 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND
A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS
ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[ronjon]

Mesocyclone structures popping up on the squall off Ft Myers beach.

RADAR

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

beg to differ on the north motion....

[Hurricaneman]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

beg to differ on the north motion....

NNe to NE is my guess

[Aric Dunn]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

beg to differ on the north motion....

NNe to NE is my guess

ene to ne at best right now
either way noy going to make it the big bend unless it really begins to move north.

[johngaltfla]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

beg to differ on the north motion....

NNe to NE is my guess

Not a forecast but local mets said on the 6 pm news they are leaning more towards a Citrus-Levy county solution. 4-7 inches with isolated storms dropping 8-10 plus in parts of SW Florida (Sarasota down to Lee counties).