ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[OuterBanker]

Tropical storm watch for Wilmington, but not for us. Good.

[Aric Dunn]

beg to differ on the north motion....

NNe to NE is my guess

Not a forecast but local mets said on the 6 pm news they are leaning more towards a Citrus-Levy county solution. 4-7 inches with isolated storms dropping 8-10 plus in parts of SW Florida (Sarasota down to Lee counties).

that would be about right

[robbielyn]

when will they issue a tornado watch for tampabay points north?

[johngaltfla]

when will they issue a tornado watch for tampabay points north?

Probably at 2300 ET. They want to get a bit more data and there is a risk from Ft Myers to the Big Bend IMHO, more so to the north though. It just depends on when she gets moving and the forward speed. I've seen TS drop zero tornadoes and others drop dozens.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I will make a short forecast later tonight.

[robbielyn]

when will they issue a tornado watch for tampabay points north?

Probably at 2300 ET. They want to get a bit more data and there is a risk from Ft Myers to the Big Bend IMHO, more so to the north though. It just depends on when she gets moving and the forward speed. I've seen TS drop zero tornadoes and others drop dozens.

i'm sorry this is off topic but i have to say i love siesta key. its the most beautiful beach outside of panama city beach. i'd move down there if i could.

[Hurricane Alexis]

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY...COLLIER COUNTY...MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH...

THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED ROTATION WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES.

ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

[robbielyn]

obviously we are going to get a decent amount of rain but if you look at wv you will see the colors changing from lot of red and orange to more yellow and blue especially as it nears shore. twc said the dry air being entrained into system.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains at 35kts.

AL, 01, 2013060600, , BEST, 0, 256N, 865W, 35, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[Stormtrackerjoe]

Maybe some new convection trying to fire up near the center. Still a respectable band on radar offshore Ft Myers, Sarasota



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[floridasun78]

look like south fl on east coast wont get that much rain i notice on radar rain staying on sw coast with small banding moving on east coast

[Stormtrackerjoe]

Ok, try this again, this is the burst of convection near the center.

(Still getting used to the Image Shack thing)



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[senorpepr]

Next mission...1145 pm tonight...

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 29.3N 83.7W
E. 07/0530 TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

That's tomorrow night's mission. Teal 71 is going wheels-up at 0415Z tonight.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0415Z
D. 25.5N 88.0W
E. 06/0530 TO 06/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[jlauderdal]

look like south fl on east coast wont get that much rain i notice on radar rain staying on sw coast with small banding moving on east coast

We will see about rain totals is se fl but its become very unstable the last hour or so

[psyclone]

Cloud tops have warmed but Dmax may provide a bailout later tonight. Overall, the convective canopy was reasonably tenacious today.

[gatorcane]

Very strong cell just offshore Ft. Myers moving north. None of the stronger cells have moved ashore yet but they are getting closer by the hour.

[Stormtrackerjoe]

Storm Prediction Center is not bullish on a tornado watch for Florida at least right now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0972.html

[HurricaneBelle]

SPC just issued a mesocale discussion for the FL West Coast. It's pretty long, so I'll link to it:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0972.html

This is the summary:

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA
AFFECTS PARTS OF FLORIDA. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON ANDREA.

[gatorcane]

Key West radar shows numerous strong cells, some look to be impacting Key West right now:

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA
SVRWXWARN ADVISORY 1

Strength: Probably a 45mph-50mph storm at FL landfall, about the same strength with higher offshore gusts near NC. Small possibility of a slightly stronger storm before landfall in FL.

Track: FL landfall between Big Bend and Sarasota, then off the SC coast to the outer banks.

Effects
--FL
+Gusty Winds, mainly on the east/south side of the center
+Heavy Rain, locally 5-8"
+Tornado Threat

--SE
+Gusty Winds near the coast
+Heavy Rain, mainly near, east, and south of the center, elsewhere less.

Next Advisory: Sometime Tomorrow

(SvrWXwarn is my forecast "thing". LOL)