ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Stormtrackerjoe]

The atmosphere is becoming more unstable here in South Florida, thunderstorms are developing in Broward and Palm Beach county and some are starting to rotate. There is a cell in Collier county that looks to be developing a hook-

Local meteorologist at a news station here in Palm Beach County says there could be a Tornado Watch issued tomorrow. He also said there is the risk of some severe weather here.

The SPC put out a Mesoscale Discussion, not expecting a watch now but isolated tornadoes tonight. Tomorrow though a watch is possible with greater instability.

Looking at the radar trends recently, Im not so sure that was the best call by the SPC. All these mesos are JUST offshore SW FL. Give it a few hours.

[ozonepete]

What thread should severe/tornado forecasts and warnings go into? Here, the observations or the advisories, or a new forum?

what about the effects thread that is stickied? I believe we did that last year.

I do have the advisory thread labeled as watches/warnings, as well as advisories. Whichever y'all think will help best, though!

That's the one.

[psyclone]

The SPC has time to adjust as needed. a couple of cells scraping the coast won't represent the critical mass required for a watch. as more unstable air spreads over more of the peninsula a watch issuance will be likely. they've got time.

[ozonepete]

Looking at the radar trends recently, Im not so sure that was the best call by the SPC. All these mesos are JUST offshore SW FL. Give it a few hours.

There's nobody better at what they do. That doesn't mean they get it right all the time of course, but they don't see enough shear combined with helicity (horizontal rotation from the surface up into the low layers) to warrant a tornado watch. They have to play by some kind of rules and can't issue a watch because it "looks" bad. And also, they usually explain this in their Mesoscale Discussions and will often issue a statement that isolated tornadoes are possible even though they are not going to issue a watch, which is what they said for south and southwestern Florida. That might change later tonight or tomorrow.

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Andrea is not looking good right now can this be downgraded to a tropical depression?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Nothing at all to speak of as far as rain here in Westchester near FIU.

[gatorcane]

conditions at a buoy a little bit northeast of Andrea:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 104 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.0 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23.3 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 25.3 kts
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[brunota2003]

Tropical Storm Andrea is not looking good right now can this be downgraded to a tropical depression?

They won't downgrade the storm just because convection has waned some. There are still most likely tropical storm force winds occurring near the center.

Buoy 42003:
Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CDT): 8:24 pm
1-Minute Wind Speed WSPD: 31.1 kts
1-Minute Wind Direction WDIR: SE ( 140 deg true )

As you can see there, between 8 pm and 9 pm CDT, Buoy 42003 had a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 31.1 knots, or just 3.9 knots short of TS strength. Judging by that, there most likely is TS strength winds occurring somewhere nearby.

[ozonepete]

Tropical Storm Andrea is not looking good right now can this be downgraded to a tropical depression?

It looks better than it ever has. There is a ball of convection blowing up right over the center, where it counts most, the LLC and MLC seem to be stacked, at least for now and thus pressures are dropping and it is maintaining or possibly intensifying a little. There doesn't seem to be any chance that it would be downgraded at this time. If anything, they may upgrade the winds tonight.

[Annie Oakley]

Is there another recon scheduled?

[brunota2003]

Is there another recon scheduled?

Yes, look in the recon thread for the next flight (believe it is 12:15 am for wheels up and first fix is at 2 am).

[artist]

What thread should severe/tornado forecasts and warnings go into? Here, the observations or the advisories, or a new forum?

what about the effects thread that is stickied? I believe we did that last year.

I do have the advisory thread labeled as watches/warnings, as well as advisories. Whichever y'all think will help best, though!

great idea!

[brunota2003]

What thread should severe/tornado forecasts and warnings go into? Here, the observations or the advisories, or a new forum?

I do have the advisory thread labeled as watches/warnings, as well as advisories. Whichever y'all think will help best, though!

great idea!

I figure it is better there, as watches or warnings aren't necessarily "observations", leave the obs page for exactly that, pictures, videos, what users are seeing or weather stations are reporting, etc!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ANDREA
MOVES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ANDREA WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND THEN MOVE FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42
MPH...68 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA
BUOY 42003...IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS
ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN


TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRUCTURE OF ANDREA HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS DISPLACED IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO APPROXIMATELY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1002 MB IS SUPPORED BY A RECENT OBSERVATION OF 1003 MB WITH 20
KT OF WIND FROM NOAA BUOY 42003. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING ANDREA OVERNIGHT AND
PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE ANDREA WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BAROCLINIC FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING FROM A PRESSURE
STANDPOINT...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
OR AFTER ANDREA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 010/05...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CURRENT CENTER EARLIER TODAY.
A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
WHILE OVERALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...THERE REMAIN SOME SIZEABLE DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED.
IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS REMAINS QUITE FAST AND SHOWS A SOMEWHAT
DISCONTINUOUS TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF
AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.0N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 27.3N 85.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 33.0N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0000Z 37.5N 75.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0000Z 44.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 44.5N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 47.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ANDREA
MOVES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[greenkat]

Seems very reminiscent of Debby last year... Stay safe down there guys

[Bocadude85]

First tornado warning of the night

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MARATHON...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT

* AT 1034 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BOOT KEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PIDGEON KEY...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...KNIGHT KEY AND BOOT
KEY BY 1110 PM EDT...

[Dave]

Thanks senorpepr for catching that mistake...sure did pull the wrong sheet.

[fox13weather]

Seems very reminiscent of Debby last year... Stay safe down there guys

Not at all like Debby. Debby sat and pounded the west coast. Andrea will be moving right along. Less time for fetch to build.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MARATHON...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT

* AT 1034 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BOOT KEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PIDGEON KEY...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...KNIGHT KEY AND BOOT
KEY BY 1110 PM EDT...