Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

is this thread replacing the Global Model run thread? want to make sure I am posting in the right thread.

[BigB0882]

is this thread replacing the Global Model run thread? want to make sure I am posting in the right thread.

I hope not. I like keeping all the model run talk in one place. Makes it much easier to go back at the end of the season and see how much fun we all had (or not!) lol

[cycloneye]

Is way too early to have a thread for anything too far ahead so I merged it with this global models thread. When we see something like an area of disturbed weather,then a new thread for that can be made. So let's keep posting the model runs here.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure why it was merged...this is the Talking Tropics section, but anyways...

18z GFS has a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche

[BigB0882]

I assume that hurricane came from across the Yucatan and is heading towards Mexico? Can anyone tell me where it is headed. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

I assume that hurricane came from across the Yucatan and is heading towards Mexico? Can anyone tell me where it is headed. Thanks!

First keep in mind is long range. There is high pressure in the SE U.S that cause any system that may form to move towards Mexico. But of course,being long range things can change.

[Hurricaneman]

Im wondering if the 18zGFS hurricane is a small piece of 92L

[Hurricaneman]

Forms around 9 days on the 18zGFS and does seem like the southern part of the wave that spit out 92L, its something to keep an eye on because there is a player on the map right now that could be part of this possible development. Lets see what the other models do with this wave the next 5 days

[Kingarabian]

Not sure why it was merged...this is the Talking Tropics section, but anyways...

18z GFS has a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_81.png

[ROCK]

GFS at 384hr will show a hurricane somewhere the entire season....

[NDG]

I lost count how many times in a row the GFS has been showind development in the Caribbean in around the 8-10 day range now, that's fairly good consistency. Even though the ECMWF is not yet showing development I give the GFS the benefict of doubt because of its persistency.
CMC has some ensemble members showing development for the same time period in the Caribbean.

[Alyono]

In the past several seasons, the ECMWF has been unable to predict genesis in the deep tropics, where this system originates from. It also totally missed Mahasen in the BOB

[caneman]

In the past several seasons, the ECMWF has been unable to predict genesis in the deep tropics, where this system originates from. It also totally missed Mahasen in the BOB

In the past several seasons, the ECMWF has been unable to predict genesis in the deep tropics, where this system originates from. It also totally missed Mahasen in the BOB

I couldn't agree more.

[ROCK]

I hug the EURO but only after a storm has formed. I look towards the mighty CMC, GFS, NOGAPS in that order for cyclonegenesis...just the way I roll...

[chaser1]

GFS at 384hr will show a hurricane somewhere the entire season....

Yeah, one can't take the long long range GFS all too serious when simply focusing on the potential development of a storm that far out. I do however, continue to look at the 500mb and 200mb charts for getting a sense of overall pattern or possible evolution of both the steering levels (regarding where tropical cyclones may be steered)and upper levels (regarding how adverse or hostile upper level winds may be thus limited likelihood of more intense hurricanes or limiting overall formation of T.S.'s).

For what it's worth while just taking a quick look from now extended up to June 24, there is nothing yet impressive or indicating from looking at the 200mb (upper level) wind forecasts that would indicate any sudden scary change in the present strong westerly and cyclonic conditions. While it is obviously only "June", I don't yet see any evidence of upper level conditions yet becoming widely conducive for either overactive development or for generally favorable for major hurricane development. Doesn't mean we can't/won't see a particularly strong hurricane develop, but simply that the much anticipated favorable conditions are still evolving.

I did notice a hint of change in the 500mb (steering level) flow. Looks like a little bit of a shift of the long wave pattern towards the U.S. Eastern seaboard where we've seen ridging most recently, but now looks like ridging over the N. Plains might be displacing the trough to shift eastward. Could easily be nothing more than typical "ebb & flow" shifts and short term in nature. Takes time and patience to determine if the longer term average steering pattern is seemingly stagnant (with trough or blocking high over the CONUS or E. Coast). I am guessing that the real summer dominant mid & upper level patterns might not become particularly evident until showing up on long range forecast maps until the beginning of July and thus viewing those long range charts then. Until that time, I would tend to be that much more leery of long range "model-canes" that GFS or CMC might develop

[ROCK]

understand your point....its only June so still time for change in the current pattern. What I am concerned about is the early season development and what that means as we head into the peak of the season. I think the ananlog year was 2004 where we had Charley, Jeanne, Fran.....If I recall. the GOM had some summer fronts that actually cleared the GOM that year thus steering all storms into FL. Not sure if this will be the case this year.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: understand your point....its only June so still time for change in the current pattern. What I am concerned about is the early season development and what that means as we head into the peak of the season. I think the ananlog year was 2004 where we had Charley, Jeanne, Fran.....If I recall. the GOM had some summer fronts that actually cleared the GOM that year thus steering all storms into FL. Not sure if this will be the case this year.

Don't forget the biggie Ivan.

[NDG]

Per the 06z GFS run it makes it 14 runs in row, without skipping one, that the GFS is showing development in the Caribbean for next Sunday.
Still no strong support from the Euro other than slight pressure falls.
GEM/CMC shows development but slightly later in time but hugs it close to C.A. if not in EPAC.

[weatherwindow]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

As always, my day begins with checking sats and NHC discussions. I have followed this regime since the mid-eighties. Dont believe I have ever seen the mid-ocean ITCZ this active in June. Yes, I realize it is way south, the climo norm for June. But very, very active...Just sayin....Rich

[wxman57]

GFS runs continue to indicate a surge of moisture in the SW Caribbean by next Sunday. I don't think this is the southern part of the 92L wave, as that wave will pass the NW Caribbean on Tuesday (48 hrs). Moisture from 92L is already in the SW Caribbean. I think it's something behind what was 92L. Interesting that the period now falls within the high-res portion of the GFS run (within 192hrs) and doesn't continue only in the low-res period. Certainly a prime early-season development region and something to keep an eye on over the coming week.

Currently, GFS runs are indicating a track westward across the SW Gulf and into southern Mexico. With the projection of the large ridge building over the south-central U.S. over the coming week, a track due west would seem most likely.