Over/Under Guess for 1st Tropical Atlantic Hurricane by 7/18

[chaser1]

So while most would agree on the likelihood that one or more hurricanes will originate this year from the deeper tropics, the bigger question might be "when".

So with that in mind..... Will the first TROPICAL Atlantic Hurricane form "After" ("the over") July 18th or "Before" ("the under"). For this forecast challenge, the Tropical Atlantic will be defined by all points South of 20 degrees latitude and all points East of 60 degrees longitude. Simple "before" or "after" guesses are all that's needed (but feel free to elaborate). Cast your guess up to 48 hour (July 16 - 0 Z) before contest date - July 18th.

I'll jump in to start and go with "after" July 18. Despite the anticipated busy & strong season ahead, am going to simply lean with climatology here, added by the fact that the Full moon is on/near the 20th of the month and assume tropical development might be enhanced after this date.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Before

[StormingB81]

After

[Riptide]

My 19/5/10 forecast requires before.

[TheStormExpert]

Something tells me this season could really ramp up quickly (similar to 2005, but not nearly as bad). Knowing that we have had had 3-4 areas of interest with one of them becoming TS Andrea within the past 8-10 days, as well as one of those areas being a strong tropical wave originating from Africa and becoming a possible TS/TD. I think things might possibly ramp up quickly as we head through July.

SO MY GUESS OF A HUURICANE BY JULY 18th WOULD BE YES.

[Alyono]

does it have to become a cane east of the islands?

[Hurricaneman]

does it have to become a cane east of the islands?

yes I would think, and before would be my guess because the MJO is predicted to go into phase 7 around late June so in early July I would expect if the shear is low we get a hurricane east of the islands due to increased moisture and instability

[Decomdoug]

Based on the MJO, lack of SAL, and instability I would guess "before".

[hurricanehunter69]

Although I would never go with a July like 2005, I'm still intrigued by the possibilities this year. I have to go with before.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Going to go with before given the conditions setting up and forecast to set-up. The vigorous nature of these waves emerging off the African coast and gaining closed low-level circulations so early in the season seems to suggest we may get Cape Verde action starting next month, like 2008 (Bertha).

[psyclone]

After. But keep in mind I was wrong with the last question!

[cycloneye]

I say after as I believe the first Hurricane east of 60W will be classified on the 20th.

[westwind]

before

[CrazyC83]

Before. I can certainly see a Bertha-like storm.

[chaser1]

does it have to become a cane east of the islands?

Yep, chose to poll those of us anticipating a hurricane that if developed..., would have occurred farther east in the tropical Atlantic and more likely born from a wave, rather than from being frontal or a sub-tropical system

At the moment, the "group forecast" is pretty bullish on an early and active tropical Atlantic season. Thus far -

9 forecasting 1st hurricane to develop east of the islands BEFORE July 18
4 forecasting 1st Atlantic Hurricane east of the islands to develop AFTER July 18

(winners to receive $100,000 "Monopoly money", last seen blowing in the breeze somewhere near Andrea's recent Florida Big Bend area landfall )

[chaser1]

I say after as I believe the first Hurricane east of 60W will be classified on the 20th.

Is that the actual day of the month's full moon? Thats what i'm thinking too

By the way, anyone have the quick answer to how many hurricanes "did" develop before July 18 during the most recent 20 or so years (in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N. & east of 60W? I do think there were several

[JtSmarts]

Before

[Andrew92]

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Well I am going with before July 18. The MJO seems very favorable early in the year for one thing, and though I didn't get a chance to follow Andrea due to being camping for a week in California with almost no Internet service, I am surprised to hear that such a meek-sounding storm got to 65 mph so early on. Instinct here just tells me that something is going to get going before too long and become a hurricane, and very possibly even hit land somewhere - even doing so before July 18.

When I looked at the name Andrea, I had in mind a storm like Bill in 2003 or Cindy in 2005. A storm that is either a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane venturing from the Yucatan northward to the middle of the Gulf Coast, in states like Louisiana and Mississippi, causing plenty of headaches but only moderate damage at the most, and doesn't get retired. Incidentally, I also envisioned such a storm around the same time frame, at either the end of June or the first few days in July. It didn't happen with the name Andrea, but for some reason I am still left believing such a storm is more than possible this year.

Also, Andrea made landfall about 33 hours after becoming a tropical storm, and still got to 65 mph in that short time frame in early June, on top of not being the most organized system in the world from what I heard. Of course, Bill had 36 hours in 2003 and still only struck with winds of 60 mph, but Cindy was offshore for 33 hours from the Yucatan - the same time that Andrea had from becoming a tropical storm until landfall - and landfalled as a minimal hurricane after organizing quickly.

So what happens this time? If we get such a storm, it probably won't become a hurricane, but it absolutely cannot be ruled out. Additionally, after Bill, there was Claudette, a tenacious little storm that eventually became a hurricane as it struck Texas. And after Cindy came July terrors Dennis and Emily, both of which followed similar paths to aforementioned Claudette (especially Emily).

It's a whim of a prediction, but I really get the feeling that something like these two sequences in 2003 and 2005 is going to happen this year. The mid-Gulf storm will probably be a strong tropical storm that simply runs out of time, while the next storm I think will be stronger than Claudette and have a more favorable environment than that storm, but nothing quite like Dennis or Emily. Maybe a category 3 storm, but nothing more. I just can't imagine this year going quite as crazy as 2005, but anything is possible.

But I do think this sequence of events, if it occurs, will all take place before July 18.

-Andrew92

[JtSmarts]

Interesting and very detailed prediction Andrew. It seems like you see this season as being a mix of 2003 and 2005? I personally have been thinking this year will kind of be a mix of 05/08 especially 08 if it a MJO dominated season.

[Andrew92]

I'm not ruling out a 2008-like season either, but there was no activity in the Gulf of Mexico until Dolly came along. Of course, after Dolly the Gulf became quite active through the peak of the season, and I do believe that will be the case in 2013. It's just a storm like Bertha that year is pretty rare in July, but a storm like Bill or Cindy happens every so often. Still, Dolly happened pretty close to the same time period as Claudette and Emily (but after Dennis) and followed an eerily similar track to those two storms.

Maybe the storm I am thinking of for the first half of July has Dolly as the ideal analog. I just get a sense it might be a bit stronger. But Dolly also got quite a bit stronger than expected, so what do I know?

As for the name, even though Barry seems logical for the first Gulf storm, and Chantal the potential big one, I actually lean towards Dorian being this July surprise. Maybe a short-lived surprise storm will sneak through the cracks to allow it to happen, or maybe I'm just dreaming crazy, but there is just something about the name Dorian that keeps ringing on a path like that for me. We'll find out I guess!

-Andrew92