Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

As always, my day begins with checking sats and NHC discussions. I have followed this regime since the mid-eighties. Dont believe I have ever seen the mid-ocean ITCZ this active in June. Yes, I realize it is way south, the climo norm for June. But very, very active...Just sayin....Rich

That is correct. And the waves emerging West Africa early have been for the most part very active with weak lows except 92L as we know wth that well defined circulation.

[gatorcane]

GFS runs continue to indicate a surge of moisture in the SW Caribbean by next Sunday. I don't think this is the southern part of the 92L wave, as that wave will pass the NW Caribbean on Tuesday (48 hrs). Moisture from 92L is already in the SW Caribbean. I think it's something behind what was 92L. Interesting that the period now falls within the high-res portion of the GFS run (within 192hrs) and doesn't continue only in the low-res period. Certainly a prime early-season development region and something to keep an eye on over the coming week.

Currently, GFS runs are indicating a track westward across the SW Gulf and into southern Mexico. With the projection of the large ridge building over the south-central U.S. over the coming week, a track due west would seem most likely.

06Z GFS 192 hour graphic below with moisture surge in Western Caribbean WxMan is talking about:

[NDG]

The energy that the GFS develops is the current vorticity in the middle of the Atlantic near longitude 40W
It tracks it across northern S.A. and then in the southern Caribbean where it shows it to develop.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS still hinting at a possible tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean starting in about 8 days.



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[cycloneye]

And look at the intensity and where it ends up as time goes ahead.

[NDG]

12z run makes it 15 runs in a row.

[Hurricaneman]

12zGFS still hinting at a possible tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean starting in about 8 days.

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5391/0609201312zgfsmslpwindw.png

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actually it starts the developmental phase at day 7 east of Houndoras\Nicaragua

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_55.png

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensembles definitely see something in the GOM in 10 days...Graphic below is the 1004MB Isobars for the individual members. Interesting days ahead!




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[NDG]

Still no support for development in the Caribbean from the ECMWF.

[NDG]

To correct myself the 12z Euro started showing some lowering pressures and some vorticity now that I see the run with higher resolution.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC at 204 hours also shows a surge of moisture in the Western Caribbean. This moves into the Yucatan if you look later on in the model run:

[Alyono]

latest GFS has dropped the idea of a robust TC. Instead, looking more like a disturbance

[KatDaddy]

Long range Global models continue to show lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean and SW GOM 8-10 days out along with the pooling of tropical moisture. This is many days out but we could see more tropical development in the days ahead. Take this as a reminder that Hurricane Season 2013 is here and it only takes one. Have your hurricane plan ready just in case its needed later this Summer. I am not so concerned with early season tropical development compared to the Cape Verde storms which are long tracked classic hurricanes. We may see a few this season.

[cycloneye]

The GFS development streak is over as it dropped in the past two runs. CMC develops in EPAC and ECMWF doesn't have anything of significance. In other words,it looks like Barry may have to wait for the MJO to arrive in Atlantic by late June or early July.

[NDG]

Yeah, its streak is over. No development this Sunday.

[Alyono]

6Z GFS has a TD or a weak TS in the BOC

[Alyono]

12Z looks to have a weak TS in the BOC. 1004mb low

[catskillfire51]

The GFS showed something like this a few days ago and today's CMC is now showing this also. It is predicting an area coming of the coast then heading back onto land then racing up off to the NE. Something to watch. And if it materializes the CMC will be a model to watch this year. Here is the loop of the latest run -
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

saw this on another forum.

[Alyono]

12Z CMC dropped the east coast TC

[catskillfire51]

what's the best site for to get the updated models, i've just been waiting for people to post the links which is a pain.