ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[hurricanexyz]

it does look like it could be a la nina but i bet it is just going to be neutral because of the statistics of it all lean more towords being neutral

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/28/13 update

The cooling trend continues in all the equatorial Pacific.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

So how are things looking folks? SOI is hovering near +8 the past week.

[Ntxw]

Indeed it is. 90 day SOI still needs a few more points to get there and if it gets there then it's a more reliable number. Currently the MJO is incoherent and will remain weak so I do not believe anything drastic will come from ENSO the next week. -AAM is currently trying to take over at the same time an oceanic kelvin wave is down-welling warm waters in the west while upwelling cooler waters in the east.



CFSv2 is favoring warm neutral but given how it has not performed well the past couple of weeks I agree with a previous poster favoring statistical models dead in the middle.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/3/13 update

No big change to the ENSO factor as Nino 3.4 is at -0.2C and Neutral conditions will continue to dominate the equatorial pacific for the next few months.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

I am so intrigued as to why the CFSv2 keeps insisting on warming above 0c (some even higher). SOI has been going up so no correlation there. The current oceanic kelvin wave is changing to the up-welling phase of warmer water (recent warming in the east per subsurface) but not really by that much yet. I suspect next week may continue the upward climb as the area between 120-170W is losing the prominent cool signature of last week.

[Kingarabian]

I am so intrigued as to why the CFSv2 keeps insisting on warming above 0c (some even higher). SOI has been going up so no correlation there. The current oceanic kelvin wave is changing to the up-welling phase of warmer water (recent warming in the east per subsurface) but not really by that much yet. I suspect next week may continue the upward climb as the area between 120-170W is losing the prominent cool signature of last week.

Wasn't it down-welling?

[Ntxw]

I am so intrigued as to why the CFSv2 keeps insisting on warming above 0c (some even higher). SOI has been going up so no correlation there. The current oceanic kelvin wave is changing to the up-welling phase of warmer water (recent warming in the east per subsurface) but not really by that much yet. I suspect next week may continue the upward climb as the area between 120-170W is losing the prominent cool signature of last week.

Wasn't it down-welling?

It was, and when it down-wells eventually it moves up the thermocline. We have appeared to reach that state the past few days, take a look at the animation below.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnection ... dyear=2013

The down-welling phase began well before I posted it sometime in mid-May hence most of the month was spent cooling. Seems to be reversing so far in June.

[Kingarabian]

I am so intrigued as to why the CFSv2 keeps insisting on warming above 0c (some even higher). SOI has been going up so no correlation there. The current oceanic kelvin wave is changing to the up-welling phase of warmer water (recent warming in the east per subsurface) but not really by that much yet. I suspect next week may continue the upward climb as the area between 120-170W is losing the prominent cool signature of last week.

Wasn't it down-welling?

It was, and when it down-wells eventually it moves up the thermocline. We have appeared to reach that state the past few days, take a look at the animation below.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnection ... dyear=2013

The down-welling phase began well before I posted it sometime in mid-May hence most of the month was spent cooling. Seems to be reversing so far in June.

Ah I see. Well I guess the SOI should follow suit if this continues and maybe drop.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like from the anomaly maps at the NHC site, we have some pretty negative SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anom.gif

... And at the same time, the Atlantic is generally warmer/hotter than expected:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

This seems like a recipe for an even MORE active season, no? Developing La Nina in the Pacific and noticeably warmer SSTs in the prime development region (including Cape Verde area?)

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI Index continues to climb higher and higher in positive and right now is at +13.6 and that is the highest reading since January 2012.

[Cyclenall]

This seems like a recipe for an even MORE active season, no? Developing La Nina in the Pacific and noticeably warmer SSTs in the prime development region (including Cape Verde area?)

Generally this is correct, but something me and others have noticed is neutral seems to be the most favorable recently for some reason in the Atlantic. The numbers were higher when neutral in the different categories during the last 15 years compared to La Nina.

[NDG]

Neutral season also means no blocking ridge in the SE US compared to a La Nina, IMO.

[Ntxw]

No change in 3.4 this week and the MJO is still incoherent with scattered convection in the three big regions.

[cycloneye]

No change in 3.4 this week and the MJO is still incoherent with scattered convection in the three big regions.

Yes no change to Nino 3.4 by CPC (-0.2C) at the 6/10/13 update.Nino 1+2 is at -1.6C and Nino 3 is at -0.8C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

A little update on what I believe will occur the next 1-2 weeks regarding ENSO. After reading the update today from CPC and going through buoy data I've put together some ideas short term. As we know May had much cooling well supported by the MJO phases in Indonesia and a strong sub-surface cold pool in the eastern regions.



In June it has completely reversed. The cold pool is gone and is replaced by a large warm pool. However, it has not yet made it to the surface.



It's interesting that this is happening without an MJO wave assisting it by traversing the Pacific. (Note: Nino 3.4 is bound by 120-170W)

In all even with the newly emerged warm pool it's unlikely we'll see any significant changes in ENSO region 3.4 the next week maybe two. -AAM is currently in place so I don't expect the MJO will make way to bring up the warmer waters by moving into the Pacific. We may even see slight cooling as the cold pool is pushed west with the new emerging warm waters. It is more likely that the Nino regions 1.2 and 3 will see more significant warming compared to the cold states they are now.

We are in a neutral state and back and forth battles continue. It appears one month it seems a weak La Nina may come then next month some form of warm neutral or weak El Nino. For now there is no strong evidence of either and neutral is still king.

[Kingarabian]

Is there anyway to check to see how consistent the ECMWF and the CFS models have been, in predicting past ENSO episodes?

[cycloneye]

CPC June update has Neutral ENSO thru the Summer

No change from the May update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

[wxman57]

Interesting that the June Euro forecast for Nino 3.4 is considerably warmer (close to El Nino) than the May forecast.

[NDG]

Just a quick reminder of the ECMWF's big bust last year

EUROSIP:


Seasonal Range Forecast: