2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[chaser1]

If this pattern stays without much change thru the peak of the season (August,September and October) then it will be an ominous one for the U.S coastline and for the Caribbean.

Yep, could'nt agree more. It will be especially interesting as we approach July though. Usually this is when we REALLY see Atlantic ridging and the Easterlies exert themselves. My guess is that this is when we might see the first "big threat" by a major hurricane, and one that just wants to barrel on westward due to the increased ridging over much of the Atlantic and possibly S.E. US. Such a set up could put the Windwards or Leewards at risk, but perhaps even greater eventual risk to Central America & Yucatan. Hmmm, sounds like another "over/under" poll (different thread though).

[cycloneye]

The vertical instability on the MDR is near normal at this time.Let's see how it continues to progress as time goes by and the peak of the season approaches.

[Hurricaneman]

The vertical instability if you add in the Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and GOM is above normal, and the MJO is predicted to go into phase 7 aka positive on the Euro by June 24th and GFS goes into phase 7 by june 25th so I believe from July 1st on we will have a major uptick in activity and maybe a Major july hurricane if the shear dies down some, but if the shear stays somewhat the same there will thankfully not be a major landfall so lets hope for shear because I see little to no dry air after June is over

[cycloneye]

The folks at the UK have updated the Precipitation and MSLP forecasts for July,August and September and it has a good deal of precipitation in most of MDR and Caribbean. The MSLP s slightly below average in MDR and Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

When I look at the Atlantic wide range view today, I see quite a bit of African Dust out there in the MDR. You can see the large area of haze between the Lesser Antilles and Africa.

Even here in South Florida a couple of days ago the NWS mentioned that some African dust invaded the region due to southerly steering flow at 700MB in the wake of Andrea.

is this normal for this time of year? I thought we started seeing this more in July across the tropical Atlantic.

[wxman57]

June Euro forecast for MSLP anomaly has MUCH higher pressure across the Gulf/Caribbean for August-October than did the May forecast. Center of highest pressure right over Florida. Not sure what this all means now. If it's right, then it would signal less activity in the Gulf/Caribbean than we were thinking.

[gatorcane]

With all the hype about this season, that is certainly an interesting prediction by the ECMWF and could be great news for us in Florida if it is right.

Is there a link for this Euro MSLP anomaly forecast you are referring to or is it a paid site?

[cycloneye]

The site that I get the MSLP ECMWF forecasts still doesn't have the June forecast which comes out on the 15th of every month. It would be a gamechanger for sure if that forecast is verified.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0summary!/

[wxman57]

The site that I get the MSLP ECMWF forecasts still doesn't have the June forecast which comes out on the 15th of every month. Unless 57 has another site for that. It would be a gamechanger for sure if that forecast is verified.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0summary!/

That's the site, Luis. We have the full ECMWF so we have access to the forecasts when they are issued near the beginning of each month. It should be uploaded on the free site by around the 20th-22nd.

[Alyono]

or it shows the EC is highly inconsistent in terms of seasonal forecasts

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

or it shows the EC is highly inconsistent in terms of seasonal forecasts

Exactly. The ECMWF showed much higher pressures and an El Niño last year as well (which is why it's showing higher pressures this year).

[SFLcane]

CFS teaming with ECM you gotta be kidding me? El nino.. Who knows what the cards hold this season.

[cycloneye]

If what our friend wxman57 brought to this thread earlier about the ECMWF MSLP June forecast was a bomb news with the expectations by the experts of a very active season,now comes this from CFSv2 for July. Higher pressures in Atlantic.

[Cyclenall]

June Euro forecast for MSLP anomaly has MUCH higher pressure across the Gulf/Caribbean for August-October than did the May forecast. Center of highest pressure right over Florida. Not sure what this all means now. If it's right, then it would signal less activity in the Gulf/Caribbean than we were thinking.

I'd toss it but does it even mean anything if all the systems come from outside of that region? Unless there is physical blocking of high pressure at the time, its not like a major hurricane is going to approach the area and hit a wall and turn around.

or it shows the EC is highly inconsistent in terms of seasonal forecasts

Exactly. The ECMWF showed much higher pressures and an El Niño last year as well (which is why it's showing higher pressures this year).

I second this. Its flip flopping on this one so I wouldn't pay much attention to it.

[Ntxw]

I'd like to bring some added thoughts regarding the ENSO look from the models. Firstly, if El Nino were to come on (this is a very low if) definitely would not be in time for peak hurricane season, at best warm neutral. Models flip flop according to intra-seasonal variability with the MJO. Warming and cooling comes in cycles during neutral and the models over aggressively predicts one or the other during that period.

Secondly, last month the PDO did rise which adversely effects NA weather and the locations of big highs in NA and just downstream in the ATL. Cold PDO obviously is better for the Atlantic basin, this month's update should be in the coming days and will be telling of where ENSO and the overall favored patterns in the northern hemisphere will steer.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Though admittedly...the CFS and UKMET do show a more unfavorable pattern as well.

I think more than anything this shows us models remain very split on what the state of the ENSO should be for hurricane season, which isn't surprising. Neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific typically don't last very long. When they do, the models have a tendency to switch it to either an El Nino or a La Nina. That's why some are favorable for the Atlantic right now and others are not.

[cycloneye]

I'd like to bring some added thoughts regarding the ENSO look from the models. Firstly, if El Nino were to come on (this is a very low if) definitely would not be in time for peak hurricane season, at best warm neutral. Models flip flop according to intra-seasonal variability with the MJO. Warming and cooling comes in cycles during neutral and the models over aggressively predicts one or the other during that period.

Secondly, last month the PDO did rise which adversely effects NA weather and the locations of big highs in NA and just downstream in the ATL. Cold PDO obviously is better for the Atlantic basin, this month's update should be in the coming days and will be telling of where ENSO and the overall favored patterns in the northern hemisphere will steer.

+1

Agree is late for El Nino to be present on ASO as it has to be three consecutive months of over +0.5C Right now Nino 3.4 is at -0.2C.

[TheStormExpert]

Exactly. The ECMWF showed much higher pressures and an El Niño last year as well (which is why it's showing higher pressures this year).

The ECMWF has basically been doing (IMO) horrible overall for the past year! First real example I remember was it showing TS Debby from last year heading towards Texas verses the GFS which had it going towards Florida.

[NDG]

After last year's ENSO forecast bust by the ECMWF, I take its forecast with a grain of salt.
It has been flipping back and forth so far this year. If it at least would had been persistent it would had been another story, IMO.

[NDG]

Exactly. The ECMWF showed much higher pressures and an El Niño last year as well (which is why it's showing higher pressures this year).

The ECMWF has basically been doing (IMO) horrible overall for the past year! First real example I remember was it showing TS Debby from last year heading towards Texas verses the GFS which had it going towards Florida.

And just this year it was showing Andrea to form and head towards LA/MS.