Over/Under Guess for 1st Tropical Atlantic Hurricane by 7/18

[rog]

I think there is a pretty good possibility of a hurricane or two before the 18th. With that said a hurricane east of 60 west will not occur until after the 18th.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

There WILL be a hurricane by then. Chantal.

[HurricaneRyan]

before

[weatherwindow]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... 0&RES=0&WM
O=

Over...the only feature I can find is the tropical low approaching the Northeast Caribbean on 7/23 on the ultra-long range CFS model...and, before anyone mentions it, any model, at a range of a month and a half, is for curiousity value only

[beoumont]

"chaser1"], added by the fact that the Full moon is on/near the 20th of the month and assume tropical development might be enhanced after this date.

I've posted this before, but long time hurricane historian Jose Partagas (along with Tom Carpenter and Ron Holle) researched the following:

Observed Relationships Between Lunar Tidal Cycles
and Formation of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms’


and concluded that there is a statistical increase in Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone genesis at the new and full moon phases. Below is URl to their article detailing their research:

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/100 ... 6-0451.pdf



----

Researcher Partagas's ashes, after he passed away, were released by NOAA scientists into the eye of Hurricane Danielle, in 1998; as a tribute to his life's work. Article below:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-38.htm

[FireRat]

I'm going with before as well.

A Cat 1 would fulfill this, and this category is fairly easy to achieve in Jun/Jul