Global model runs discussion

[JonathanBelles]

Major upgrades to the HWRF and HYSPLIT models with smaller
enhancements/bug fixes to the SREF and NAM models.

^^^
Good to hear!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 13hwrf.htm

[ROCK]

Major upgrades to the HWRF and HYSPLIT models with smaller
enhancements/bug fixes to the SREF and NAM models.

^^^
Good to hear!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 13hwrf.htm

the HWRF was supposed to replace the GFDL at one point but it was so notoriously bad that it didnt make the grade. Personally, I think both models have an awful time with intensity. Blowing up storms at random.

the NAM never was a tropical model per se but maybe this upgrade will help it as storms approach landfall...say 36 hours out...JMO

[JonathanBelles]

The new HWRF has a better skill than the NHC(!) I'll believe that when I see it.

[ROCK]

for kicks I have been watching Africa lately. Have some features making there way towards the coast....here is a nice site that you can see SAL and these features. The train is about to leave the station...


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... T/AMERICA/

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS out in lala land spins up a nice Storm for Texas by the end of the month.

[catskillfire51]

Can you show us an image or a link

[cycloneye]

Can you show us an image or a link

Here are the links to GFS runs.

06z run

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/?prevpage=inde ... L+GUIDANCE

[catskillfire51]

Thanks I just looked at the longer range the site I was using only went to 180HRs

[N2FSU]

06z GFS out in lala land spins up a nice Storm for Texas by the end of the month.

Here ya go: 06Z GFS at 348hrs:

[N2FSU]

and at 372hrs:

[GeneratorPower]

Major upgrades to the HWRF and HYSPLIT models with smaller
enhancements/bug fixes to the SREF and NAM models.

^^^
Good to hear!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 13hwrf.htm

the HWRF was supposed to replace the GFDL at one point but it was so notoriously bad that it didnt make the grade. Personally, I think both models have an awful time with intensity. Blowing up storms at random.

the NAM never was a tropical model per se but maybe this upgrade will help it as storms approach landfall...say 36 hours out...JMO

Blowing up storms at random seems like a limitation of all forecasting schemes. Look at how much NHC forecasters struggle with intensity of fully formed systems just 24 hours in advance. I think expecting an intensity forecast to be correct days in advance is just unreasonable. The physical atmosphere is far too complex and subject to disruption to expect much more on cyclone intensity from dynamical models.

[catskillfire51]

And now the 12z GFS takes the gulf storm to Louisiana. Looks like we may start to see development the 23rd.

[Stormlover2012]

yeah just saw that, western la-brownsville texas!!! all depends on where the high pressure and etc is, I still wanna see if EURO hints anything. A long ways out because GFS is always bullish.

[catskillfire51]

Yes sir.

[tolakram]

Looks like the 12z GFS is hinting at some kind of development in the far southern Gulf at 162 hours+

Probably a blob to watch anyway.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the global model suite today (GFS/ECMWF/CMC), doesn't look like anything of significance on the horizon for the next 10 days in the Atlantic basin besides a slight possibility of something in the BOC/Yucatan area but there is no consensus from the models about this possibility and if it happens might be right around 10 days from now or a little longer.

[weatherwindow]

[catskillfire51]

GFS showed development 11-12 day range... hard to trust that far though. CMC at 12z has a nice blob in the same area but that's on the 22nd.

[catskillfire51]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



in 1995 there was also a very week almost neutral la nina, and very warm temps in the gulf

[NDG]

GFS showed development 11-12 day range... hard to trust that far though. CMC at 12z has a nice blob in the same area but that's on the 22nd.

GFS has been showing two developments, one system for early to the middle of next week in the western Caribbean/BOC and then later with a second system in the period you mention.