2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[SFLcane]

I don't look at the models that far out because they are not accurate. Anything beyond 6-7 days is a guess...at best. Conditions overall appear to be favorable for an above average season...perhaps even hyperactive. With ENSO-neutral conditions leaning toward La Nina conditions dominating the entire hurricane season, I see no reason why we shouldn't see at least above average activity. However, concerning June and July, those two months do not historically see a lot of TC activity...even during hyperactive seasons. We might see two more TCs total between now and the end of July, which is fairly normal.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't look at the models that far out because they are not accurate. Anything beyond 6-7 days is a guess...at best. Conditions overall appear to be favorable for an above average season...perhaps even hyperactive. With ENSO-neutral conditions leaning toward La Nina conditions dominating the entire hurricane season, I see no reason why we shouldn't see at least above average activity. However, concerning June and July, those two months do not historically see a lot of TC activity...even during hyperactive seasons. We might see two more TCs total between now and the end of July, which is fairly normal.

June & July 2010 could be good examples of what your saying, even though there was Hurricane Alex at the end of June.

[WeatherEmperor]

I think they are jumping the gun, I mean flip flop on models one time and we are going to jump the gun now, just bite the bullet and stick with what ur first thought was for this hurricane season and if ur wrong then u can say ur wrong in the end.

The problem is that for professionals/researchers in the field of meteorology, they dont want to be or cannot afford to be wrong because they are putting their reputation and credibility on the line. The average poster on Storm2k however can easily be wrong and wake up the next day and not have anything to worry about except for the "i told you so" posts by other members.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Kingarabian]

I think they are jumping the gun, I mean flip flop on models one time and we are going to jump the gun now, just bite the bullet and stick with what ur first thought was for this hurricane season and if ur wrong then u can say ur wrong in the end.

The problem is that for professionals/researchers in the field of meteorology, they dont want to be or cannot afford to be wrong because they are putting their reputation and credibility on the line. The average poster on Storm2k however can easily be wrong and wake up the next day and not have anything to worry about except for the "i told you so" posts by other members.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Word.

I remember in 2006 a lot of the Florida Hotel owners were criticizing the NHC for predicting a number of storms that scared off all the tourists... but of course the developing El-Nino suppressed it of most activity. A lot of backlash.

[beoumont]

I remember in 2006 a lot of the Florida Hotel owners were criticizing the NHC for predicting a number of storms that scared off all the tourists... but of course the developing El-Nino suppressed it of most activity. A lot of backlash.

The following might have a little to do with the tourism slowdown and hotel occupancy (highly dependent on the overall US economy) in Florida in the 2nd half of 2006:

A. The multitude of landfalls of major hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 in Florida being fresh in the public's memory; and

from an economic report in Dec, 2006:

B. "One word—slowdown—can define the U.S. economy this past year. Economic growth and job growth both fell in 2006 from previous years as the residential housing boom came to an end.

[Downdraft]

El Nino doesn't mean safety for Florida by any means. Andrew was the first named storm coming in August of an El Nino year.

[TheStormExpert]

El Nino doesn't mean safety for Florida by any means. Andrew was the first named storm coming in August of an El Nino year.

And 2004 had an El Niño as well.

[Ptarmigan]

El Nino doesn't mean safety for Florida by any means. Andrew was the first named storm coming in August of an El Nino year.

And 2004 had an El Niño as well.

Same with 1969.

[cycloneye]

The favorable MJO is forecast to enter the EPAC/Caribbean area by late June thru early July.

[BigB0882]

That seems to lineup with the GFS sniffing out development in the BOC in 10 days or so, doesn't it?

[NDG]

El Nino doesn't mean safety for Florida by any means. Andrew was the first named storm coming in August of an El Nino year.

And 2004 had an El Niño as well.

Same with 1969.

Keep in mind that 1969 & 2004 were both weak El Ninos but most important they were both "Modoki" El Ninos, unlike the traditional El Nino that tends to disrupt activity in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

The models coincide that the favorable MJO will arrive in the EPAC/ Caribbean by the end of this month.

[cycloneye]

The MDR is slated to warm up again as the trade winds turn more weak in the next couple of weeks. That will help reinvigorate the Tripole.

[Alyono]

Keep in mind that 1969 & 2004 were both weak El Ninos but most important they were both "Modoki" El Ninos, unlike the traditional El Nino that tends to disrupt activity in the Atlantic.

I'd say the 2004 el niño did disrupt Atlantic activity. We had nothing in the deep tropics after late September, typical of an el niño season. It was just that everything else was so favorable that allowed August and September to go gangbusters

[Ptarmigan]

Keep in mind that 1969 & 2004 were both weak El Ninos but most important they were both "Modoki" El Ninos, unlike the traditional El Nino that tends to disrupt activity in the Atlantic.

I have noticed with some winters with Modoki El Nino, the following hurricane season is active, like 1995, 2005, and 2010.

[MiamiensisWx]

El Nino doesn't mean safety for Florida by any means. Andrew was the first named storm coming in August of an El Nino year.

Andrew formed after El Niño had dissipated in June or July 1992. Most years that feature El Niño in August or September are really inactive. 1969 and 2004 are practically the only exceptions; 1965, which featured Betsy, was otherwise highly inactive. If El Niño were to develop in 2013, a large number of factors would need to be favorable for an active peak season; otherwise, most areas of the United States, FL included, would see a reduction in landfall probabilities. This is a good thing because in most years you are unlikely to see a set-up so favorable as this year's for a strong Bermuda High. Neutral-warm conditions tend to produce most of S FL's strongest hurricanes--1888 (Cat-3), 1906 (Cat-3), 1919 (Cat-4), 1926 (Cat-4), 1928 (Cat-4), 1935 (Cat-5), 1941 (Cat-2), 1948 (two majors), Donna (1960)...

[Hurricaneman]

I'll ask this, does anyone think a lesser version of 2005 is in the cards with the instability lately where almost everything developed west of 60W or will it end up more like 2004 where the MDR goes crazy with mega instability in the MDR

[cycloneye]

2013 pattern similar to 2004? Is a good possibility based on what is going on. Here are the comparisons of the 500mb pattern from 2004 and 2013.

2004



2013

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the tracks could stay just east of FL with the current pattern but any deviation of the 500mb ridge could spell big trouble

[galaxy401]

2013 pattern similar to 2004? Is a good possibility based on what is going on. Here are the comparisons of the 500mb pattern from 2004 and 2013.

Do you have comparisons to other seasons as well?