cycloneye wrote:After the early January weak storm and the mid Febuary TD it has been very quiet in that basin. Let's see when things start to heat up.
Shanshan WAS a tropical storm.
2013 WPAC Season
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Meow
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
Shanshan WAS a tropical storm.
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hurricanexyz
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
Meow wrote:Shanshan WAS a tropical storm.
Although Shanshan was a naked swirl and its TS status is debatable, yeah it was a tropical storm. Also, the first named TS in January was a severe TS and reached 1-min sustained winds of 50kts, and I can't say that's weak.
I kinda miss the early May tropical cyclones in the SCS/WPAC...this time it seems that the next storm will form mid-June, maybe after the wet phase of the MJO crosses the Atlantic...
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euro6208
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
seems so quiet so far...models don't develop anything until the first week of june...
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:seems so quiet so far...models don't develop anything until the first week of june...
yeah
after a quick start, we're now in a "hiatus". hahaha
as of May 28, 2013
This year = 2 (Best Track) (Forecast Track)
Average = 2.7 (1951-2010)
How's the MJO?
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euro6208
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
mrbagyo wrote:euro6208 wrote:seems so quiet so far...models don't develop anything until the first week of june...
yeah
after a quick start, we're now in a "hiatus". hahaha
as of May 28, 2013
This year = 2 (Best Track) (Forecast Track)
Average = 2.7 (1951-2010)
How's the MJO?
weak and won't be around our area until late june or early july...
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cycloneye
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
It looks like the WPAC will be active in the next few weeks and it began of course with Yagi as the MJO enters the basin.
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euro6208
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:It looks like the WPAC will be active in the next few weeks and it began of course with Yagi as the MJO enters the basin.
earlier than i expected...
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
Shanshan and Yagi were all significant typhoons back in 2006. 2013's Shanshan was a very disorganized system. Let's see if Yagi this year will end up being a weaker version compared to its 2006 counterpart.
I have a feeling that all insignificant names of tropical cyclones in 2006 will be the significant ones this year, and vice versa.
Btw it's interesting to see the next model runs from NOGAPS, NAVGEM and GFS...the last two were showing not one but two tropical cyclones forming next week..
I have a feeling that all insignificant names of tropical cyclones in 2006 will be the significant ones this year, and vice versa.
Btw it's interesting to see the next model runs from NOGAPS, NAVGEM and GFS...the last two were showing not one but two tropical cyclones forming next week..
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Hurricane_Luis
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2013 WPAC Season
Invest 99W has developed over the South China Sea between The Philippines and Vietnam. Guess the models are right.
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
Ominous SST anomalies in Wpac during first half of June, could well spell trouble over the next few months?!
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
Interesting setup in store for us next week. Models are showing TC formation east of PI and possibly could affect southern Japan. .and GFS is showing a developing system in SCS next week that could be stronger than the current invest that we have there.
The precipitation forecasts for SE Asia, especially the Philippines, look nasty though. The MJO is expected to come next week and the wet SW monsoon is getting active across SE Asia...these pretty much explain the expected conditions next week..
The precipitation forecasts for SE Asia, especially the Philippines, look nasty though. The MJO is expected to come next week and the wet SW monsoon is getting active across SE Asia...these pretty much explain the expected conditions next week..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
Typhoon Hunter wrote:Ominous SST anomalies in Wpac during first half of June, could well spell trouble over the next few months?!
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that warm sst doesn't want to move. i've noticed it since april. whatever the case, this looks nasty for the philippines and southeast asia if anything were to develop...
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
That SST graphic looks La Nina-ish given the warm waters are concentrated in or closer to SE Asia. Of course the Nino regions are looking cold right now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
seems like systems are having a hard time developing...maybe the effect of this undecided enso...
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
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euro6208
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
increased threat of tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific for the next 2 weeks as the MJO moves over our area...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
MY LATE-JUNE NUMBERS:
25 - Tropical Storms
14 - Typhoons
9 - Major Typhoons
5 - Super Typhoons
COLOR LEGEND:
Far Above Average
Above Average
Slightly Above Average
Average
Slightly Below Average
Below Average
Far Below Average
25 - Tropical Storms
14 - Typhoons
9 - Major Typhoons
5 - Super Typhoons
COLOR LEGEND:
Far Above Average
Above Average
Slightly Above Average
Average
Slightly Below Average
Below Average
Far Below Average
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euro6208
Re: 2013 WPAC Season
our 5th tropical cyclone is here. Let's take a look at the Season ACE
6.6425
That's way below the climatology average of 35.
I sense a slow and usual season.
6.6425
That's way below the climatology average of 35.
I sense a slow and usual season.
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2013 WPAC Season
July is coming and we still don't have a typhoon. Wind shear has been so strong across SCS/WPAC this month, and though we have pretty warm waters west and east of PI, the shear would ultimately disrupt any potential howlers.
Wind shear has been so strong across SCS/WPAC this month, and though we have pretty warm waters west and east of PI, the shear would ultimately disrupt any potential howlers.
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