Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

St Lucia forecast


6:00 AM....DATE...JUNE 16TH 2013....FORECASTER...EMMANUEL DESCARTES.
PRESENT WEATHER AT HEWANORRA......FAIR AND HAZY.
PRESENT TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA...........27 C OR 80 F.
LAST NIGHT’S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA...27 C OR 80 F.
WIND AT HEWANORRA IS BLOWING FROM THE EAST AT 20 MPH OR 31 KM/H.
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDED AT 2:00 AM AT HEWANORRA.........2.7 MM.
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH THUS FAR AT HEWANORRA.....119.1 MM.

SUNSET TODAY....6:34 PM........SUNRISE TOMORROW...5:39 AM.

FORECAST FOR SAINT LUCIA VALID FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS.....EASTERLY NEAR 20 MPH OR 31 KM/H, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
WEATHER...FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND HAZY WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SEAS IN A 25 MILE OR 40 KM RADIUS FROM ST. LUCIA.
TIDES FOR CASTRIES HARBOUR...HIGH AT 7:49 AM...LOW AT 1:54 PM.
TIDES FOR VIEUX FORT BAY.....HIGH AT 8:56 AM...LOW AT 3:21 PM.
SEAS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH WITH WAVES 6 TO 8 FEET OR 1.8 TO 2.4
METRES. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS AND SEA BATHERS ARE ADVISED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL SEAS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
AN AREA OF DUST HAZE IS REDUCING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
WEAK UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

http://www.slumet.gov.lc/

[Gustywind]

St Kitts and Nevis forecast

Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 17th June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F

Partly Cloudy

Synopsis: High pressure ridge along with Saharan dust will continue to impact the environment across the Northeastern Caribbean. As a result significant shower activity will remain restricted across the Leeward Islands.

Wx:

Today: Partly cloudy and hazy with some brief passing showers possible during the morning.

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy and hazy with just a light passing shower likely.

Winds: Easterly at 12-16kts over land and reaching 20kts over coastal waters..

Seas: Moderate to locally rough height 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. A small craft advisory remains for unsafe seas east and north of the Leeward Islands..

Barometric Pressure: Normal

Sunset today: 6:46 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:38 am.


Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Lorne Salmon-Forecaster

Forecast issued at 4:39 AM,GMT-04:00 on 16/06/2013

http://antiguamet.com/Antigua_Met_files/SKB_Fcast.html

[Gustywind]

Dominica forecast


Issued: 6:00 AM on Sunday, June 16, 2013

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.

Forecast for Today and Tonight:

Fair to partly cloudy, hazy and occasionally breezy with a few brief passing showers

Wind: East north easterly to East south easterly @ 15 to 40 km/h.

Sea Conditions: Moderate to rough in open water.

Swells: 2.5 to 3.0 meters or 8.0 to 10.0 feet.

Warning/Advisory: A small craft warning is in effect for above normal sea swells.

Sunrise: 5:35 AM

Sunset: 6:37 PM

Low Tide: 3:51 AM and 3:57 PM

High Tide: 9:35 AM and 10:22 PM


http://www.weather.gov.dm/forecast.php

[Gustywind]

Trinidad and Tobago forecast

ISSUED AT: 05:40AM

Date:Sunday 16th of June 2013

Meteorologist: Oscar Lovell

FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Mostly sunny,hazy and breezy despite the brief
early morning and late afternoon shower in a few
confined areas.Tonight will be mostly clear and
breezy despite the light overnight shower.


ALL MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION.




SEAS: Moderate occasionally Rough
WAVES: 2.5 to 3.0m IN OPEN WATERS
1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS
Temperature Units:Celsius

LAST NIGHT MIN. TEMP.
Piarco: 25 Crown Point: 25

FORECAST MAX. TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:22PM
Date:Saturday 15th of June 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 08:42 am 09:48 pm LOW 02:53 am 02:59 pm
Scarborough HIGH 08:46 am 09:42 pm LOW 02:46 am 03:12 pm

http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/forecast

[Gustywind]

Antigua & Barbuda forecast

Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 17th June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F

Partly Cloudy

Synopsis: High pressure ridge along with Saharan dust will continue to impact the environment across the Northeastern Caribbean. As a result significant shower activity will remain restricted across the Leeward Islands.

Wx:

Today: Partly cloudy and hazy with some brief passing showers possible during the morning.

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy and hazy with just a light passing shower likely.

Winds: Easterly at 12-16kts over land and reaching 20kts over coastal waters..

Seas: Moderate to locally rough height 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. A small craft advisory remains for unsafe seas east and north of the Leeward Islands..

Barometric Pressure: Normal.

Rainfall to date for the month of June: 20 mm/0.79 inches

Sunset today: 6:43 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:33 am.


Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Lorne Salmon-Forecaster

Forecast issued at 4:38 AM,GMT-04:00 on 16/06/2013


http://www.antiguamet.com/

[Gustywind]

Montserrat forecast

Today's Temps
Partly Cloudy
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F


Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 17th June 2013.

Synopsis: High pressure ridge along with Saharan dust will continue to impact the environment across the Northeastern Caribbean. As a result significant shower activity will remain restricted across the Leeward Islands.

Weather:

Today: Partly cloudy and hazy with some brief passing showers possible during the morning.

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy and hazy with just a light passing shower likely.

Winds: Easterly at 12-16kts over land and reaching 20kts over coastal waters..

Seas: Moderate to locally rough height 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. A small craft advisory remains for unsafe seas east and north of the Leeward Islands..

Barometric Pressure: Normal.

Sunset today: 6:44 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:38 am.


Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Lorne Salmon-Forecaster
Forecast issued at 4:39 AM,GMT-04:00 on 16/06/2013


http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

June 16 2013
 

Significant Feature: Tropical wave across the western Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Afternoon:   Expect scattered showers over sections of most parishes.

Tonight: Cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (85F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Anguilla forecast


Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 17th June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F

Partly Cloudy

Synopsis: High pressure ridge along with Saharan dust will continue to impact the environment across the Northeastern Caribbean. As a result significant shower activity will remain restricted across the Leeward Islands.

Wx:

Today: Partly cloudy and hazy with some brief passing showers possible during the morning.

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy and hazy with just a light passing shower likely.

Winds: Easterly at 12-16kts over land and reaching 20kts over coastal waters..

Seas: Moderate to locally rough height 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. A small craft advisory remains for unsafe seas east and north of the Leeward Islands..

Barometric Pressure: Normal

Sunset today: 6:51 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:39 am.

Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Lorne Salmon-Forecaster

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
02:32 UTC JUNE 16 2013



DISCUSSION ..DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS AS IT EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW CLOUD PATCHES MOVING THE AREA UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MIMIC-TPW ASLO SHOWED SOME POCKETS OF MOISTURE AS WELL. THE GFS TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS AND RESTRICTS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LESS THAN 1 MM. THE NOGAPS ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SAME PERIOD. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AND MODEL GUIDANCE EXTENDS THIS REASONING.



FORECASTER

ORVIN PAIGE


http://www.antiguamet.com/

[Gustywind]

British Virgin Islands forecast


Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 17th June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F

Partly Cloudy

Synopsis: High pressure ridge along with Saharan dust will continue to impact the environment across the Northeastern Caribbean. As a result significant shower activity will remain restricted across the British Virgin Islands.

Wx:

Today: Partly cloudy and hazy with some brief passing showers possible during the morning.

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy and hazy with just a light passing shower likely.

Winds: Easterly at 12-16kts over land and reaching 20kts over coastal waters..

Seas: Moderate to locally rough height 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. A small craft advisory remains for unsafe seas east and north of the British Virgin Islands..

Barometric Pressure: Normal

Sunset today: 6:56 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:44 am.


Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Lorne Salmon-Forecaster


http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SAHARAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WHEN THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA...INCREASING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN SHOWING SAHARAN
DUST PARTICLES SUSPENDED IN THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THE ABUNDANT DUST ON THE AIR HAS PRODUCED HAZY SKIES IN ALL THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE 16/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT MOST OF
THE DUST PARTICLES ARE SUSPENDED IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5-20 KFT OR
BETWEEN 850-500 MB. ALSO...IN THE 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED AN
INVERSION AROUND 4500 FT...SUGGESTING THAT A RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS ACCOMPANIES THESE DUST PARTICLES. LATEST SATELLITE
PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 15-25
PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN PR...HOWEVER...
THE CHANGE OF RAIN IS LOW FOR THE REST OF PR AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS TODAY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE TRADE WINDS MAY
CARRY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. SINCE THE PW
VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION INTO MID-WEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...
INCREASING THE CHANGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF THE HAZY CONDITIONS...
NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST DECENT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN
DUST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES THRU MON THO HZ FROM SAHARAN DUST TO
REDUCE VSBY A BIT. STREAMERS WL CAUSE LCL CIGS W OF ISLANDS NXT FEW
HRS...AND ISOLD SHRA NR TJMZ. WIND BLO FL150 ESE 15-27 KT BCMG E
TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE THRU MON WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WIND
20 KT OR UNDER. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO
SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 10 10 10 40
STT 79 89 80 90 / 10 10 10 20

[Macrocane]

Watching 93L now:

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N81W TO
17N82W TO 12N82W DRIFTING W AT 5 KT. OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND
CAYMAN AND BUOY 42057 INDICATE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY NE...HINTING
THAT THE WAVE AXIS HAS NOT YET PASSED 81W AT THE SURFACE...IN
ALMOST THE SAME POSITION AS 06 UTC. IN ADDITION...THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM GRAND CAYMAN INDICATED NE TO E WINDS THROUGH H7.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND WESTERN HONDURAS...WHICH IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS AMPLIFYING AND
SLOWLY DOWN...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL
BRING CONTINUED CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[BZSTORM]

Hi Everyone, I'm here and yes watching 93L , I had feeling something was going to happen and here we are its a huge wave and dropped quite bit of rain last night over Punta Gorda (South Belize) hearing reports of some localized flooding. We had a squall go through around 11am on Placencia Peninsula some gusty winds along with it. Right now pretty calm to be honest my best guess 5kts max. Really hope I wont wake up on monday to find TS bearing down on us, which is pretty much what happened with Iris went to bed track was Yucatan, at 6am Belize/MX border and landfall same day. And got to tell you its been mega hot up in mid 90's for last 3 days, since the rain its cooled down allot of the ambient air back to normal 86F but sea temps have been really hot for month now, some areas which are no more than 15ft deep near the cayes have been like bathwater. Will keep you posted waiting for the 6pm BZ Met updated weather forecast to see what they think next few days will bring the 8am had warning to expect extreme thunderstorms with 35kt+ winds on Monday.

[cycloneye]

Hi Everyone, I'm here and yes watching 93L , I had feeling something was going to happen and here we are its a huge wave and dropped quite bit of rain last night over Punta Gorda (South Belize) hearing reports of some localized flooding. We had a squall go through around 11am on Placencia Peninsula some gusty winds along with it. Right now pretty calm to be honest my best guess 5kts max. Really hope I wont wake up on monday to find TS bearing down on us, which is pretty much what happened with Iris went to bed track was Yucatan, at 6am Belize/MX border and landfall same day. And got to tell you its been mega hot up in mid 90's for last 3 days, since the rain its cooled down allot of the ambient air back to normal 86F but sea temps have been really hot for month now, some areas which are no more than 15ft deep near the cayes have been like bathwater. Will keep you posted waiting for the 6pm BZ Met updated weather forecast to see what they think next few days will bring the 8am had warning to expect extreme thunderstorms with 35kt+ winds on Monday.

Keep us informed when you can. The web cam from there is good to look at to see how are things doing. I posted it at the 93L thread.

[BZSTORM]

Belize met discussion not being updated it seems till morning this was the last one at around noon today
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
FORECAST DISCUSSION
DATE: SUNDAY 16TH JUNE (AFTERNOON)
SKIES WERE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THIS MORNING . RADAR IMAGES SHOWED SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE SOUTHAND OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH MOVED TO SOME INLAND AREAS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ALOFT.
AT 200MB AND 300MB THE FLOW IS SE'LY PRODUCED BY A RIDGE OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY DIVERGENT. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERLIES FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR (82W/83W) SUPPORTS AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING BELIZE.
SUN AFTERNOON TO MON. MIDDAY:
NO MAJOR CHANGES OCCUR AT 200MB AND 300MB DURING THIS CYCLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. AT 850MB, MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE BY THE END OF THE CYCLE AND SPEEDS INCREASE SUN. NIGHT . AT THE SURFACE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE BY THE END OF THE CYCLE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COUNTRY. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE DURING SUN. NIGHT. GFS SHOWS .50IN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO .25 IN TONIGHT , BUT INCREASE UP TO 2.50IN BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. NAM SHOWS .01IN-1.50IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THIS CYCLE. UKMET SHOWS .25IN TO 1.0IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MON AFTERNOON TO TUES. MIDDAY:
THE RIDGE AT 200MB AND 300MB CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DIVERGENT SE'LY FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS CYCLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN VERY HIGH AND THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SE. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SE BECOMING QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY- 35KT. AT THE SURFACE THE FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND GUSTY, FROM THE SE. THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE COUNTRY MON. NIGHT. GFS SHOWS UP TO 2.0IN OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND DECREASES TO .25IN ALONG THE COAST TUES. AFTERNOON. UKMET CONTINUES TO SHOW .25IN TO 1.0IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NAM SHOWS UP TO 2.0IN OVER THE SOUTH INITIALLY DECREASING TO .25IN BY THE END OF THE CYCLE.
FORECAST: MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS,THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS, INCREASING TONIGHT. *HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTENDED FORECAST: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. *HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST*
MARINE: WINDS: E-NE 10-20KT. SEAS: MOD-ROUGH. *SMALL CRAFT CAUITON NEAR THUNDERSTORMS* WAVES: 4-6FT. A FEW SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
FORECASTER: Wellington

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave interacting with a trough will cause scattered showers starting on Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND COME TO WITHIN 320 MILES OF THE ISLANDS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PULL NORTH SOMEWHAT BUT REMAIN
NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL DRIFT WEST
DURING THE WEEK THEN RE-FORM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS SPARSE UNTIL A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 53 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT...BUT A LITTLE MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING NORTH AND SOUTH OF VIEQUES BY 5 AM
AST. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COME ONSHORE IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHT. DRY MID LAYERS AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TODAY AND EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES BUT MAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 20/06Z AND MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH
WAVE PASSAGE AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAXIMUM FOR MORE ENHANCED
ACTIVITY...BUT MOISTURE AND GOOD DYNAMICS PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST
20/18Z AND SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS WINDS AT 850 MB
INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 19/18Z. THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 16/18Z
MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWED UP TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON
20/06Z. THIS WOULD BE OF SOME CONCERN SINCE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
AT NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS OF UP TO 50 KNOTS IN
ISOLATED AREAS SHOULD THEY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. LIFTED INDICES OF
-5 TO -7 ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CAPE IS ABOUT 3250 BUT OCCURS ON TUESDAY...AND BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER RELATIVELY HIGH AND MAY NOT SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED DOWNDRAFT
ACTIVITY. WITH SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE FORECAST...WILL SAY
THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND LOOKS LESS ACTIVE...BUT WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU MON...THOUGH HZ FROM SAHARAN
DUST WILL AFFECT VSBY. WIND SFC TO 2K FT ESE 15-20 KT BCMG GENERALLY
FROM E.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE BELOW 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AT BUOY 41043
AND MODEL SHOWS LITTLE INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET OR WINDS UP TO 20 KTS MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO DRY AIR AND WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
IN THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 1000 MB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 10 20 50
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 10 20 60

[BZSTORM]

winds still low this morning on the peninsula but about 15 mins ago rain started getting harder, woke up with sinus headache which normally means pressure change, (Smile my own built in barometer). Luis by any chance do you have link to buoys for wind/pressure in W Caribbean. I know NOAA was planning to install one by Lighthouse caye Near Dangriga last year but when team was here it sea too rough to do site survey not sure if they came back again earlier this year.

[BZSTORM]

well now my hearing is back and I can think, we just had some heavy rainfall and what with tin roof the noise can be a little too much, looks like we get a little lull for little while before the next heavy rain, so far not too bad just wet, not much in way of winds either, animals are scarce which is normal for this kind of rain. Heard they have some flooding in Punta Gorda.

[msbee]

hope everyone stays safe!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF LOW TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH
MINIMAL SHOWERS OVER LAND AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW SHOWERS
ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS ACTIVITY WAS SHORT-LIVE AND
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY. TJSJ 17/12 SOUNDING INDICATED A MODERATE PWAT
VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS TODAY IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 58 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AND
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU TUE XCP IN AFT NR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA OVR
INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-30 KT THRU TUE.
SAHARAN DUST AT TIMES TO CAUSE SLGTLY LWR VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE IN THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20
KT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WILL AFFECT PR/USVI WED AND
THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 77 / 20 10 20 50
STT 88 79 89 79 / 20 10 20 50