ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[SoupBone]

Ok folks lets lay this El Nino stuff to rest. There is no El Nino or La Nina, we are in neutral and will stay there likely through peak tropical season. Wxman57 only mentioned that the Euro looked warmer than before he didn't say an El Nino was coming. The only changes is that the PDO rose to positive and sub-surface waters transitioned against the cold pool underneath, that is all. CFSv2 has been going warm but it too is very borderline so even it has no confidence and waffles.

I know the term "El Nino" is devil's words in the tropical threads so to prevent panic lets avoid using it unless we are sure it's coming.

Just looking at the 30 and 90 day SOI, it would be difficult to grasp an el Nino event beginning to setup right now. The daily has been positive for all but 5 days in a 30 day period.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[cycloneye]

El Nino is anywhere to be found now or anytime soon.

Nino 1+2:



Nino 3:



Nino 3.4:



Nino 4:



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

[Ntxw]

Your graphics supports what I thought would occur from earlier in the week that the sub-surface movements are taking place with 1.2 and 3 seeing the biggest differences, lets see if they hold true through Monday's update.

In all even with the newly emerged warm pool it's unlikely we'll see any significant changes in ENSO region 3.4 the next week maybe two. -AAM is currently in place so I don't expect the MJO will make way to bring up the warmer waters by moving into the Pacific. We may even see slight cooling as the cold pool is pushed west with the new emerging warm waters. It is more likely that the Nino regions 1.2 and 3 will see more significant warming compared to the cold states they are now.

Last week


This week

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm expecting a significant modification in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies after next week. As has been discussed here, a downwelling Kelvin wave is transporting warm sub-surface SSTs from the western and central Pacific to the eastern Pacific. The upcoming MJO pulse favors low-level westerlies and warming as well. Finally, the AAM is still negative but starting to trend towards its high phase.

If the CFS is correct, all negative anomalies would likely be wiped out by mid-July:

[cycloneye]

As long the SOI continues well above the negative 8 line no El Nino will be around in the next 2-3 of months.

[NDG]

I believe the ECMWF's ENSO Seasonal Range Forecast is being released today, if indeed it shows Nino 3.4 to be nearing to a warm Neutral or to an El Nino threadshold by the heart of this hurricane season, lets just look back at its April forecast.
See how warm bias it has been? Whoever picks this model over the rest is out of their mind.

[cycloneye]

The Updated ENSO forecast by ECMWF is not too different than the April one.

[NDG]

That was last month's, the updated one to be released today should say June.

[wxman57]

Here's the June forecast, though I'm quite reluctant to believe it given the pool of cool sub-surface water out there.



I'd be more inclined to believe the Australia Bureau of Meteorology's forecast, again, given the amount of cool sub-surface water. And I never trust a forecast that takes a sharp turn instantly at the time of the forecast. In this case, the Euro has the temp dropping up to the forecast time then instantly starts warming.

[TheStormExpert]

Of course we are in a Neutral state and the models usually never know what the heck to do when in the Neutral state.

[cycloneye]

A nice warm pool at the subsurface has grown. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks to see if warming occurs at Nino 3.4.

[dexterlabio]

MJO is approaching Western Pacific and by the end of June/first week of July, it's expected to cross EPAC going to the Caribbean. I wonder if that would deal some warming within the next few days. .

[Ntxw]

There was no change to 3.4 this week, 4 cooled slightly and 3 warmed slightly.

MJO is approaching Western Pacific and by the end of June/first week of July, it's expected to cross EPAC going to the Caribbean. I wonder if that would deal some warming within the next few days. .

Warming looks very likely after one more week of fairly stable SST's this week. If that MJO wave does progress nicely we have a growing pool of very warm waters under the eastern basin to work with. Our friend TropicalAnalystWx made note that late June to July patterns favored warming of the equatorial Pacific, with AAM rising and the new MJO forecasting there is better conclusion that this will occur. To what extent is still yet to be answered.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 6/17/13 update

No changes of interest to note in this update. Only they mention the warm anomalies in the EastCentral Pacific.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,is the ESPI important to see how ENSO will be in the next few weeks. It continues well in negative and what I know is negative means no El Nino.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,is the ESPI important to see how ENSO will be in the next few weeks. It continues well in negative and what I know is negative means no El Nino.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Definitely important. It resembles what he SOI is saying and that ENSO and atmosphere is not coupled for any kind of El Nino at this time or in the short to medium range.

[cycloneye]

JMA June ENSO forecast

This Japanese model screams Neutral to Weak La Nina and it differs big time with the ECMWF.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... st.html.en

[Hurricaneman]

The JMA = - neutral to weak La Nina
the CMC = dead neutral
the ECMWF = +neutral to weak El Nino

If I were to guess I would guess the Canadian right now but that could change

[JonathanBelles]

What exactly is ESPI?

[Ntxw]

What exactly is ESPI?

ENSO precipitation index. During El Nino the subtropical jet is prevalent and enhanced cyclone activity in WPAC+EPAC with copious rainfall and has very positive values. Vice versa for La Nina.