2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[xcool22]

i have a question for you cycloneye ?? what does Ensemble mean: mean on image thanks

[cycloneye]

i have a question for you cycloneye ?? what does Ensemble mean: mean on image thanks

Higher pressures in Western Atlantic with center over Florida and normal pressures elsewhere.

[xcool22]

okay thanks

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi starting to lower expectations?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole developing would argue for a lower ace index in hurricane season, and threat of a big winter for US.
i know about 10 days ago he said he had issued a new forecast and it would be on weatherbell. since he hasnt said much about it i wonder if he drastically lowered his numbers?.

[Alyono]

If the ECMWF has an el niño, should there be lower pressures across the EPAC and CPAC? Something seems off on the forecast

[ninel conde]

If the ECMWF has an el niño, should there be lower pressures across the EPAC and CPAC? Something seems off on the forecast

makes sense. something is going on if joe bastardi is dropping hints he may have been wrong.

[cycloneye]

Another tweet by JB: Who has the premium thing?

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi
IOD Flip an its implications for summer, hurricane season and winter now posted on http://Weatherbell.com premium

[ninel conde]

i dont but im guessing hurricane season will be another copy of the last 3.

[Ntxw]

It's interesting to me that JB is one of the few mets who includes the Indian Ocean into his forecast. I have always pondered the relationship between the IO and African waves as well as the moisture connection (instability) with the Atlantic and IO via ITCZ. It seems JB sees the colder IO as an indicator of a weaker Indian Monsoon, lessening the energy input from the tropics through the MJO not being in the good phases.

[ninel conde]

the good news is joe bastardi wouldnt dump his previous forecast unless the writing is on the wall. with a weak monsoon i can assume the cape verde season will be non existent again and we will have alot of weak, moisture starved, swirls and subtropical lows far from land.

[ninel conde]

It's interesting to me that JB is one of the few mets who includes the Indian Ocean into his forecast. I have always pondered the relationship between the IO and African waves as well as the moisture connection (instability) with the Atlantic and IO via ITCZ. It seems JB sees the colder IO as an indicator of a weaker Indian Monsoon, lessening the energy input from the tropics through the MJO not being in the good phases.

he sure did go on and on about some 400mb mumbo jumbo in his 1st forecast. i guess thats out the window.

[Hurricane Andrew]

the good news is joe bastardi wouldnt dump his previous forecast unless the writing is on the wall. with a weak monsoon i can assume the cape verde season will be non existent again and we will have alot of weak, moisture starved, swirls and subtropical lows far from land.

This is a rather premature post. Trusting joe bastardi's word as gospel? I don't think so.

[ninel conde]

the good news is joe bastardi wouldnt dump his previous forecast unless the writing is on the wall. with a weak monsoon i can assume the cape verde season will be non existent again and we will have alot of weak, moisture starved, swirls and subtropical lows far from land.

This is a rather premature post. Trusting joe bastardi's word as gospel? I don't think so.

he often gets his first forecast wrong whether its summer, winter, or hurricanes. however, he doesnt issue a second forecast without the writing already on the wall. i just releived if this means fewer and weaker storms.

[jinftl]

How sound...or scientific...can a prediction be that when one potential influencing factor changes from 10 DAYS ago, the entire forecast is out the window? Everyone is betting high - JB is hedging his bet that they are too high and is going lower - not in # of storms, not in potential impact to U.S., but in forecasting less than a hyperactive ACE. Many destructive seasons have had less than "top 10 ACE" values and have been more than memorable. If only everyone in the pro met community has included the Indian Ocean in their forecasts...

[Ntxw]

How sound...or scientific...can a prediction be that when one potential influencing factor changes from 10 DAYS ago, the entire forecast is out the window? Everyone is betting high - JB is hedging his bet that they are too high and is going lower - not in # of storms, not in potential impact to U.S., but in forecasting less than a hyperactive ACE. Many destructive seasons have had less than "top 10 ACE" values and have been more than memorable. If only everyone in the pro met community has included the Indian Ocean in their forecasts...

This is a very good post. People jump on context quite often. He's not forecasting an inactive season just adjusting based on the tools he sees. I would like to see more forecasters include all three major oceans of the tropics as they no doubt have profound effects on one another. Usually the one with a dominant signal will have the greatest influence long term, usually it's the Pacific and ENSO but we are clearly looking at neutral conditions so the Atlantic and Indian Oceans will have the better of it I bet.

[ninel conde]

How sound...or scientific...can a prediction be that when one potential influencing factor changes from 10 DAYS ago, the entire forecast is out the window? Everyone is betting high - JB is hedging his bet that they are too high and is going lower - not in # of storms, not in potential impact to U.S., but in forecasting less than a hyperactive ACE. Many destructive seasons have had less than "top 10 ACE" values and have been more than memorable. If only everyone in the pro met community has included the Indian Ocean in their forecasts...

This is a very good post. People jump on context quite often. He's not forecasting an inactive season just adjusting based on the tools he sees. I would like to see more forecasters include all three major oceans of the tropics as they no doubt have profound effects on one another. Usually the one with a dominant signal will have the greatest influence long term, usually it's the Pacific and ENSO but we are clearly looking at neutral conditions so the Atlantic and Indian Oceans will have the better of it I bet.

have either of you seen his weatherbell new forecast? can you give a clue what he is saying about summer now? i sure hope its less wet.

[jinftl]

haven't seen it

How sound...or scientific...can a prediction be that when one potential influencing factor changes from 10 DAYS ago, the entire forecast is out the window? Everyone is betting high - JB is hedging his bet that they are too high and is going lower - not in # of storms, not in potential impact to U.S., but in forecasting less than a hyperactive ACE. Many destructive seasons have had less than "top 10 ACE" values and have been more than memorable. If only everyone in the pro met community has included the Indian Ocean in their forecasts...

This is a very good post. People jump on context quite often. He's not forecasting an inactive season just adjusting based on the tools he sees. I would like to see more forecasters include all three major oceans of the tropics as they no doubt have profound effects on one another. Usually the one with a dominant signal will have the greatest influence long term, usually it's the Pacific and ENSO but we are clearly looking at neutral conditions so the Atlantic and Indian Oceans will have the better of it I bet.

have either of you seen his weatherbell new forecast? can you give a clue what he is saying about summer now? i sure hope its less wet.

[SFLcane]

This alone in my view tells me storms will head further westward this season. Tripole look

[cycloneye]

This alone in my view tells me storms will head further westward this season. Tripole look

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2013.gif

Yes,is established more south which implies what you said.

[BigB0882]

I always find it funny when one set of models changes everyones predictions. It means those models were way wrong before, so what makes them so right to follow them 100% right now? A slow approach is always best. All it takes is one major hurricane to hit a populated area for the season to be memorable, so context is definitely important.