tropical wave near the islands

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think this has any chance at development or is shear too strong

[cycloneye]

If it has a chance to do something,it has to surpass this big upper trough. (TUTT)

[Gustywind]

For info Meteo-France Martinica has issued an yellow alert tonight and expected till tommorow for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

[floridasun78]

this tropical wave suppose come by south fl by weekend

[floridasun78]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg it look wave getting bigger

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The wave looks impressive because it's on the divergent side of the TUTT. As soon as it passes, expect storms to die down. This is interesting for now, but nothing of concern for tropical development.

[floridasun78]

their expecting rain from that wave here south fl

[tailgater]

I wouldn't write this wave off just yet, it's under a strong upper low right now so it's not looking like much but in a day or 2 coniditions should become a little more favorable it has a pretty sharp wave axis.
Just a little something to watch for. I don't guess the models are predicting anything cuss it's not getting much fanfare.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm wondering if it's possible that it may have some interaction with that stalled cold front in the SE US.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at GFS it appears as though that UL feature will persist in the same area, eventually moving out to the North.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=wnatl&param=200_wnd_ht

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the watervapor loop...looks like it is lifting out now. Also the area is showing vorticity down to H850. Convergence is low though

[Hurricaneman]

This should bring heavy rain on Saturday to Florida and Cuba so local flooding with some thunderstorms is possible

[ozonepete]

This disturbance has sure had staying power since it started firing up some convection under monster shear earlier in the week. I have been impressed by its persistence and now am impressed by how conditions are changing to much more in its favor. Shear has dropped off significantly in the entire area over it and ahead of it. We can see convection firing up now because of the shear drop. Good upper divergence is getting stacked now over the lower level convergence area, and finally you can see it is associated with a vorticity center that goes from 850 mb all the way up to 500 mb (I'm showing 850 mb, 700mb and 500mb vorticity here.)
I didn't show the mid-level water vapor but there is very little dry air involved at all. the environment is actually quite moist. I think this must be getting attention from the NHC and wonder if conditions will remain favorable - looks like they will.


RGB Satellite:


Shear and Shear Tendency:


Lower level convergence:


Upper divergence:


Vorticity at 850, 700 and 500 mb:

[ozonepete]

Just to finish this off, notice you can roughly see the wave axis by noting the curve in vorticity at 850 and 700 mb. What would help a wave like this to start rotating is if more convection fires up, especially ahead of the wave axis. Looks like that may be starting to happen. If enough convection fires up over and ahead of the wave the tendency for stronger rotation should begin.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you ozonepete. If convection can start to fire up , this system may be something to monitor in the coming days. Shear is definitely dropping off, compared to yesterday. Should convection increase in the next 24 hours and sustain itself, we may have a potential of a possible invest coming this weekend as this wave moves westward.

[ozonepete]

Convection still increasing. If this trend continues it should get the invest and code yellow from the NHC tomorrow I would think.

[floridasun78]

Convection still increasing. If this trend continues it should get the invest and code yellow from the NHC tomorrow I would think.

you think still we may need watch it next few days?

[BigB0882]

This is heading West or North west?

[floridasun78]

it look wave hit dry air look bad today

[Aric Dunn]

Convection still increasing. If this trend continues it should get the invest and code yellow from the NHC tomorrow I would think.

[img]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-06-210245_zps8125e8ec.jpg[/mg]

Looking at the progression ... it may end up interacting with a developing low off the se coast of the US. notice this morning there is clearly a elongated are of low pressure there and the wave is quickly approaching. I think there might be a brief possibility the next couple days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html