![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img545/3029/iml.gif)
![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img824/1632/u7y3.jpg)
WDPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING. AN
OLDER 201300Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC
WITH 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W IS LOCATED
UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE STR IS ALSO CREATING MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20
KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HELPING TO VENT THE SYSTEM
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 05W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE TIMING OF THE STR BUILDING NORTH OF TD 05W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE
SSTS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE MODERATE LEVELS OF
VWS WILL MITIGATE MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEAST CHINA AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
C. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA AND WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96.//
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 202118
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (E OF VIETNAM)
B. 20/2032Z
C. 17.9N
D. 116.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/1732Z 17.2N 117.3E MMHS
BERMEA
![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img577/6034/3co.png)
WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 18.0N 116.4E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 20.2N 114.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =