ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Radar and satellite loop I see the LLC possibly getting tugged closer to the convection, near 18.9N and 92.2W

[Cyclenall]

USE UP BARRY!

Finally, some "listening" going on from the tropics for once, its still possible. A rare turn-around by the NHC at the 5:00 pm advisory and I agree that Andrea and TD2 remind me of another season that had similar storms and time frames.

[Hammy]

I'm wondering if this is yet another indicator of what's to come, given how quickly Andrea organized, and with the strong wave at around the same time, and then this seeming to strengthen when so many other systems in similar situations dissipated.

[lester]

it's back up to 35 mph

AL, 02, 2013061906, , BEST, 0, 192N, 930W, 30, 1006, TD

[supercane4867]

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.3°N 93.3°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL
IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 19.3N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z 19.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Cyclenall]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL
IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 19.3N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z 19.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Come on Two, become Barry . Don't let a good opportunity to use that name go to waste.

[Hurricaneman]

It definitely has a chance, its under the convection which is probably a harbinger of Barry

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
700 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 94.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR
AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

Getting its sea legs back. We'll see what it can do before landfall.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 02, 2013061912, , BEST, 0, 194N, 939W, 30, 1006, TD

[tailgater]

I think it will make it to 60mph at least before landfall, the BOC can really spin them up tight if they are small and conditions are right.

[CrazyC83]

Is there going to be a Recon plane before landfall?

[cycloneye]

Is there going to be a Recon plane before landfall?

Yes,first mission departs at 10:30 AM EDT.

[Dave]

Using this thread for recon data...hdobs, vdm, dropsondes, etc for TD 2.

[Dave]

AF 309 on runway for TD 2

000
URNT15 KNHC 191418
AF309 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20130619
140830 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +318 +199 360000 000 /// /// 23
140900 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +317 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
140930 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +312 +199 360000 000 /// /// 23
141000 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +306 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141030 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +303 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141100 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +305 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141130 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +307 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141200 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 +305 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141230 3024N 08855W 0158 00005 0164 +305 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
141300 3024N 08855W 0158 00009 0169 +300 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
141330 3024N 08855W 0158 00006 0159 +300 +201 360000 000 /// /// 03
141400 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0159 +301 +202 360000 000 /// /// 23
141430 3024N 08855W 0158 00003 0166 +301 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141500 3024N 08855W 0157 00002 0160 +304 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141530 3024N 08855W 0153 00005 0162 +308 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141600 3024N 08855W 0158 00003 0163 +286 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141630 3024N 08855W 0158 00005 0164 +280 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141700 3024N 08855W 0158 00007 0168 +280 +202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141730 3025N 08855W 0159 00006 0167 +277 +203 360000 000 /// /// 03
141800 3025N 08855W 0160 ///// 0160 +276 +203 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

[wxman57]

I don't know, visible loop indicates the center may be west of 95W - about 50 miles east of Veracruz. If that's the center then it is far-removed from any convection. Recon better hurry before it moves ashore in a few hours. May have peaked overnight.

[Dave]

Cycloneye and all...Recon data here...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115122&p=2313166#p2313166

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS
MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY
METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Dave]

Still showing no takeoff yet, this mission may have been cancelled. Waiting for updated tcpod now.

[Dave]

Still not showing takeoff from any source including the other transmitter.