Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

yep...most globals are developing in the EPAC now....CMC has been showing this for a few runs now. IMO, I think the rest of June will be clear and our next invest will be the 1st-2nd week of July...JMO

[gatorcane]

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all show something developing in the EPAC in the 168 hour timeframe.

GFS moves it slowly NW

ECMWF moves it more WNW not impacting Mexico.

CMC moves it north into Mexico while deepening it.

Will be interesting to see which model gets it right this far out and what future runs of these models show.

[ROCK]

I stand corrected... they invested a system over land....go figure.

[catskillfire51]

they should just stop having runs go past say 200hrs. Has any of the models been even remotely accurate passed that? 06z GFS again has a pretty big storm hitting texas around the 1st of july

[NDG]

No, they should not stop the models' 200+ hr forecasts , IMO, they are not meant to be taken literally for that timing but they usually have a good indication of what the trends will be for that time period.
Like for example Andrea, the GFS at the end had it right on its long range forecast.

[catskillfire51]

yeah I do remember that. Guess have to keep an eye on it then

[Dean4Storms]

Bastardi mentioned the Brazilian model yesterday showed a Tropical Cyclone passing between Miami and Orlando in its Meteogram for both cities around July 12. Would coincide with the MJO.

[jlauderdal]

Bastardi mentioned the Brazilian model yesterday showed a Tropical Cyclone passing between Miami and Orlando in its Meteogram for both cities around July 12. Would coincide with the MJO.

long range for sure, lets see if it verifies

[weatherwindow]

Bastardi mentioned the Brazilian model yesterday showed a Tropical Cyclone passing between Miami and Orlando in its Meteogram for both cities around July 12. Would coincide with the MJO.

long range for sure, lets see if it verifies

Good afternoon J...ultra-long range CFSv2 suggest a different scenario. On 7/12, a Cape Verde system is recurving north of Puerto Rico and subsequently east of Conus. Long range model wars
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=

[OuterBanker]

Bastardi mentioned the Brazilian model yesterday showed a Tropical Cyclone passing between Miami and Orlando in its Meteogram for both cities around July 12. Would coincide with the MJO.

long range for sure, lets see if it verifies

Good afternoon J...ultra-long range CFSv2 suggest a different scenario. On 7/12, a Cape Verde system is recurving north of Puerto Rico and subsequently east of Conus. Long range model wars
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=

LOL, like I’m going to trust a model goes out 45 days. No thank you, I will use my much more accurate blindfold and dart method.
One item of note, both JB and Levi Cowan mentioned the Brazilian model as well as the cold Indian water. I’m not sure who really verifies whom, but it is a curiosity. Levi is not backing down on his numbers and JB is not backing down on his ace numbers, but he is lowering his number of storms.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I saw that video. Very interesting. I read the euro is getting an upgrade. I guess the brazilian already has an upgrade since it's pretty new. The SST's make sense but the temps are nothing like 2005. I'm more worried about landfall probability being higher then average then the #'s. Everone be prepared this year. Could be a rough ride.

[sunnyday]

I think many of us have gotten used to recurves before the storms hit the US. Maybe, that will be the pattern again this year. Any thoughts?

[sunnyday]

Joe B's mention of a hurricane passing "between Miami and Orlando" means that it passes to the east out to sea or on land between the 2 cities? Thank you for clarifying this for me.

[SFLcane]

Bastardi mentioned the Brazilian model yesterday showed a Tropical Cyclone passing between Miami and Orlando in its Meteogram for both cities around July 12. Would coincide with the MJO.

long range for sure, lets see if it verifies

Good afternoon J...ultra-long range CFSv2 suggest a different scenario. On 7/12, a Cape Verde system is recurving north of Puerto Rico and subsequently east of Conus. Long range model wars
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=

Capeverde tropical cyclone into sfl there.

[Hurricaneman]

Joe B's mention of a hurricane passing "between Miami and Orlando" means that it passes to the east out to sea or on land between the 2 cities? Thank you for clarifying this for me.

Landfall in Palm Beach, will change a whole lot from not existing to major landfall so these ranges are just fantasy

[SFLcane]

Joe B's mention of a hurricane passing "between Miami and Orlando" means that it passes to the east out to sea or on land between the 2 cities? Thank you for clarifying this for me.

Landfall in Palm Beach, will change a whole lot from not existing to major landfall so these ranges are just fantasy

fantasy is right BUT could very well be showing the overall steering pattern this season which is to drive storms further westward.

[Hurricaneman]

Joe B's mention of a hurricane passing "between Miami and Orlando" means that it passes to the east out to sea or on land between the 2 cities? Thank you for clarifying this for me.

Landfall in Palm Beach, will change a whole lot from not existing to major landfall so these ranges are just fantasy

fantasy is right BUT could very well be showing the overall steering pattern this season which is to drive storms further westward.

I can't deny that landfalls will probably happen, especially in the SEUS and the GOM

[sunnyday]

Thank you for explaining.

[weatherwindow]

Good afternoon J...ultra-long range CFSv2 suggest a different scenario. On 7/12, a Cape Verde system is recurving north of Puerto Rico and subsequently east of Conus. Long range model wars
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=[/quote]

LOL, like I’m going to trust a model goes out 45 days. No thank you, I will use my much more accurate blindfold and dart method.
One item of note, both JB and Levi Cowan mentioned the Brazilian model as well as the cold Indian water. I’m not sure who really verifies whom, but it is a curiosity. Levi is not backing down on his numbers and JB is not backing down on his ace numbers, but he is lowering his number of storms.[/quote]
Good evening, OB...needless to say I wasnt implying that either of the ultra models: the Brazilian(out to 7/12) or the CFS are forecast worthy..imo, anything beyond 240 hours is for entertainment and, possibly, TREND value only. Greetings from Key West, Rich

[cycloneye]

12z GFS doesn't have anything of interest in the mid to long range until July 5th.