2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[NDG]

From what I have read, the phase of the IOD has very little known effects on overall tropical activity in Atlantic. If it does it is a very small percentage, IMO, there are so many other variables that make part of the equation.

[cycloneye]

Here is a video made by Levi Cowan where he makes an analysis of the factors that will lead to the season that is expected by the experts. The first part he talks about TD 2 and then the majority of it is about the factors.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... he-season/

[baytownwx]

Levi Cowan disagrees with JB:


Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)
6/17/13 5:58 PM
@BigJoeBastardi I would bet effect of IOD is opposite. Positive phase shown to be unfavorable. goo.gl/55AwD pic.twitter.com/gQO7QXWpo5

[Ntxw]

Curious question for anyone with info on it, which phases of the MJO tends to produce the most Atlantic hurricanes?

[Ntxw]

So I found some info to my own question . Klotzbach et al 2010, his paper shows correlation that on average not only in hurricanes but major hurricanes and their durations is phases 1 and 2 (east Africa and Western Indian Ocean), strong numbers when in phase 2 within the IO.



http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Incl ... ch2010.pdf

I've always assumed it was the western Hemisphere phases, not so much based on this research

[NDG]

Interesting that the lowest tropical activity in the Atlantic is when it is on phase 7

[falcon]

Levi Cowan disagrees with JB:


Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)
6/17/13 5:58 PM
@BigJoeBastardi I would bet effect of IOD is opposite. Positive phase shown to be unfavorable. goo.gl/55AwD pic.twitter.com/gQO7QXWpo5

Levi Cowan seems to be correct.
Positive IOD = increased vertical shear and decreased vertical instability

From CSU´s "SUMMARY OF 2011 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY:

Anomalously cool sub-tropical Atlantic SSTs and a positive Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD) event were likely responsible for the stronger vertical shear and
drier mid-levels that were experienced this year compared with 2010. This stronger-thannormal vertical shear and drier-than-normal middle levels in the atmosphere were
responsible for the unexpectedly low levels of more intense TC activity.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ov2011.pdf

[cycloneye]

Another evidence contrary from what JB is saying about the Indian Dipole is this PDF paper by NHC about a summary of the 2011. Go to pages 9-11.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... y_2011.pdf

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi is saying the IOD has flipped to negative?

[Ntxw]

joe bastardi is saying the IOD has flipped to negative?

That is what he is saying I believe. But as NDG said there is little research on how much the IOD effects the Atlantic and it's possible very little. However convection in the IO does have a noteable influence as posted via MJO paper, not sure how the IOD effects it though.

[cycloneye]

Here is this week's update by the Global Hazard folks of CPC. It looks like no TC for the next 2 weeks in North Atlantic.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[Hurricaneman]

Here is this week's update by the Global Hazard folks of CPC. It looks like no TC for the next 2 weeks in North Atlantic.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

but after that all bets are off

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Here is this week's update by the Global Hazard folks of CPC. It looks like no TC for the next 2 weeks in North Atlantic.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/54d1n4.jpg

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

but after that all bets are off

YAAAAAWN. I have been waiting SOOO long for Barrry to come and it's not even happening; TD 2 won't become Barry. YAAAAAWN.

[Hurricaneman]

Here is this week's update by the Global Hazard folks of CPC. It looks like no TC for the next 2 weeks in North Atlantic.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/54d1n4.jpg

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

but after that all bets are off

YAAAAAWN. I have been waiting SOOO long for Barrry to come and it's not even happening; TD 2 won't become Barry. YAAAAAWN.

one storm in June is above average, some years even hyperactive ones don't get started until August so if something happens after week 2 it should be considered a bonus

[TheStormExpert]

We've had at least one storm in June for the past three years now. With two of the many June TC's becoming hurricanes which is very rare to have early in the season. In 2010 there was Hurricane Alex which was right below major hurricane status (110mph). 2011 had TS Arlene. 2012 had Cat.1 Hurricane Chris which also formed in the far North Atlantic which made it even more rare followed by TS Debby. This year we have already seen TS Andrea and TD #2. (Barry??) A typical June should have one named storm every two years.

[ninel conde]

the old joe bastardi is back. talking about a hyper active july.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

@RyanMaue ECMWFMJO says we may have hyper July as it rolls back toward 2, then 3, the hyper development phases

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The Atlantic should start getting quite busy after July 4th. Wouldn't surprise me to see 2 tropical cyclones with a pulse of this magnitude.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm hoping its nothing like July of 2005, but a hurricane or 2 in July that makes landfall wouldn't surprise me in the least with the 500mb ridge and the MJO pulse but the thing that could save anyone with a landfall is shear so lets hope that stays put

[HurricaneRyan]

Two named storms already. Two years in a row we've had two named storms in June. and this season is reminding me of 2005.

[gatorcane]

One thing I am noticing here in South Florida that I haven't seen in June in many years is deep easterly flow with African Dust and dry hazy skies that you would see start more in the mid July timeframe.

This could be an early indicator that the steering flow might be in place this year come the peak months of Aug-September to bring Cape Verde systems from the far East Atlantic towards Florida and the SE US like the steering flow we saw in 2004.

In fact, looking at the extended forecast from NWS Miami the pattern continues:

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT AT AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES SO
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATE JUNE AVERAGE WHICH IS ABOUT 1.75 INCHES.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE SUCH THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Of course the long wave pattern does change and could feature more troughiness along the Eastern CONUS come Aug-September. Just something I am noticing that might be an early indicator.