Global model runs discussion

[Bocadude85]

Joe B's mention of a hurricane passing "between Miami and Orlando" means that it passes to the east out to sea or on land between the 2 cities? Thank you for clarifying this for me.

Landfall in Palm Beach, will change a whole lot from not existing to major landfall so these ranges are just fantasy

fantasy is right BUT could very well be showing the overall steering pattern this season which is to drive storms further westward.

Just a interesting observation, 1926 and 1928 both featured a tropical cyclone effecting South Florida in July or early August and in both years a major hurricane struck South Florida in September. So if this phantom storm does come to fruition then South Florida could be in trouble during September.

[catskillfire51]

lookin at the gfs it looks like barry might cross mexico and form in the pacific. Not sure if it will pan out that way but if it does, when was the last time 2 storms crossed, first storm being andrea from pacific to gulf, and now barry possibly going gulf to pacific??

[cycloneye]

The models should start to show things that try to develop by early to mid July as the strong MJO pulse arrives to octanes 1-8 and this could activate the North Atlantic basin. EPAC for sure will get 1-2 systems.

[Frank2]

It didn't take long for the A/B systems to form, so not an encouraging start that's for sure...

We'll see how long the subtropical ridge holds in it's present position - in past seasons it's relocated or been divided in two, and that's made all the difference on where CV systems will go...

Frank

[TheStormExpert]

Just a interesting observation, 1926 and 1928 both featured a tropical cyclone effecting South Florida in July or early August and in both years a major hurricane struck South Florida in September. So if this phantom storm does come to fruition then South Florida could be in trouble during September.

IMO, I think Florida especially S. Florida is the big target for a major landfall sometime within the next 1-2 years. There's a higher than average chance it will happen this season. If not, next year could have a more average chance with a possible El Niño.

[supercane4867]

seems fun

[cycloneye]

It would be very interesting to watch a fujiwara take place.

[sunnyday]

Is there any more about the before mentioned "landfalling hurricane between Miami and Orlando" around July 12? Is there a link that I can follow other than the Joe Bastardi one that requires payment?
Thank you....

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS a 216hrs; first hint of development in SW Caribbean

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 240hrs

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 276hrs; BOC storm

[wxman57]

lookin at the gfs it looks like barry might cross mexico and form in the pacific. Not sure if it will pan out that way but if it does, when was the last time 2 storms crossed, first storm being andrea from pacific to gulf, and now barry possibly going gulf to pacific??

Andrea didn't form from the Pacific storm, though some of that storm's moisture probably made it into Andrea. If Andrea had formed from the Pacific storm then it would have taken the Pacific storm's name. Barry's low-level circulation won't survive the high mountains in its path, though some of its moisture will make it into the East Pac.

[tropicwatch]

06Z GFS; 276hrs; BOC storm
https://imageshack.com/scaled/large/407/utx.gif

The GFS has been pretty good so far this year in longer range forecasts. Probably something to watch during the next week.

[RL3AO]

MJO looks very favorable coming up in the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

MJO looks very favorable coming up in the next few weeks.

Here is the latest forecast by the models including yes the ECMWF that have the strong MJO pulse coming to octanes 1-8.

[wxman57]

Keep in mind that studies like Maloney & Hartman (2000) have shown that there is typically a spike in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico TC development about 15 days after the MJO reaches the East Pacific. So if an MJO is reaching the East Pac in early July, we should expect any resulting Atlantic Basin development to occur around mid July.

[Ntxw]

Keep in mind that studies like Maloney & Hartman (2000) have shown that there is typically a spike in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico TC development about 15 days after the MJO reaches the East Pacific. So if an MJO is reaching the East Pac in early July, we should expect any resulting Atlantic Basin development to occur around mid July.

This is assuming it survives to octants 1-2 which is highly favorable. It could very well die off, longer range guidance is not very good in the summer months with the MJO since it moves much slower than in winter. If the AAM rises more then we have a better shot, if not the wave will likely end up weaker.

The EPAC is very good though, it has not only the MJO but a coinciding oceanic Kelvin wave coupled too.

[supercane4867]

12z GFS

[caneseddy]

12z GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_72.png

Interesting that the 12zGFS shows that...it almost looks like an identical path that Hurricane Cindy took in 2005, which made landfall in Louisiana on July 5.

If, and that's a big IF, this confirms, then this season has been an almost exact duplicate of 2005

Let's recap: Andrea formed in the Gulf and made landfall in the Big Bend, even though Arlene of 2005 was in the Panhandle. Barry was a minimal TS in the BOC, just like Bret of 2005 following an almost identical track. Eerily similar to 2005.

[ScottNAtlanta]

12z GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_72.png

Interesting that the 12zGFS shows that...it almost looks like an identical path that Hurricane Cindy took in 2005, which made landfall in Louisiana on July 5.

If, and that's a big IF, this confirms, then this season has been an almost exact duplicate of 2005

Let's recap: Andrea formed in the Gulf and made landfall in the Big Bend, even though Arlene of 2005 was in the Panhandle. Barry was a minimal TS in the BOC, just like Bret of 2005 following an almost identical track. Eerily similar to 2005.

Funny too that the MJO pulse would be right about the same time as Dennis and Emily...(cue music from movie Halloween...)