2013 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

10% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/3008/lpa1.png

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Is Invest 93E.

[Yellow Evan]

Wonder how long we will go till a storm forms?

[Yellow Evan]

A lot of activity expected within the next few weeks.

Some models:



Cosme as a Cat1/2 probs.



Cosme and Daillia



Daillia eating Cosme for lunch



Dallia threatens BCP

[cycloneye]

EPAC has now Invest 94E.

[Hurricane_Luis]

EPAC has now Invest 94E.

Are you sure cycloneye, I see no 94E on the Tropical Floaters Page.

[cycloneye]

EPAC has now Invest 94E.

Are you sure cycloneye, I see no 94E on the Tropical Floaters Page.

ATCF released the 94E file.I suspect the SSD Floater will come as soon they begin to run the Tropical Models. Same thing occurred with 90L that was without any Bam models update for two days.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[cycloneye]

EPAC as expected with the MJO arriving is turning more active.Apart from 94E there is a new system.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Think we'll have 95E soon.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

We now have 95E if anyone cares.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM COSME...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECAS

[cycloneye]

It looks like TD 4-E is around the corner and later it will be Dalila that will threat the Mexican coast. 96E thread

[Hurricaneman]

this will probably be reneumered for the 11pm package, lets see where it tracks

[cycloneye]

this will probably be reneumered for the 11pm package, lets see where it tracks

And will be the 4th TC of EPAC.

[cycloneye]

The EPAC continues very active with Dalila and with new Invest 97E up.

[Yellow Evan]

Any more storms possible following Erick?

[Hurricaneman]

Any more storms possible following Erick?

Not that I can see, it looks like the favorable pattern is moving to the Atlantic

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Any more storms possible following Erick?

Not that I can see, it looks like the favorable pattern is moving to the Atlantic

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Unfortunately, yea. CMC did show Flossie a few days ago though near the MX coast (again).

[Yellow Evan]

3 storms

2 storms

GFS not as aggressive with even one of these systems anymore, however.

[cycloneye]

The Basin is active once again as new invest 98E is up. Go here for more information about this system

[Yellow Evan]

1. A surface trough is located 225 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Thunderstorm activity with this system has been diminishing in the past 12 hours. But isolated thunderstorms are still possible as it moves slowly westward. There is a very low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.