
Global model runs discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
For entertainment purposes as the 12z ECMWF has what may be a strong Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles at 240 hours.


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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
cycloneye wrote:For entertainment purposes as the 12z ECMWF has what may be a strong Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles at 240 hours.
http://oi44.tinypic.com/rqzq0w.jpg
Looking at the high-res surface chart for 240 hrs, I see pressures 1016-1018mb in that region at 240 hrs. I think we'll have to wait until around the middle of next week for some of these medium-range models to start picking up on TC potential in the Caribbean late this month or early in July.
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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Stormlover2012 wrote:Has it stalling texas/la border
What are you referring to?
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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The 12z CMC has a massive and potent hurricane southwest of Baja California Sur from 94E in 6 days:

The 12z GFS develops a disturbance currently southwest of Baja California Sur and sends it towards a developing 94E, resulting in a Fujiwhara between the two potent tropical storms:

The 12z ECMWF is boring and just has 94E as a decent tropical storm:

In the Atlantic, the 12z GFS follows the 6z GFS in developing the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic when it positions itself east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Decent tropical storm into the Louisiana-Texas border in the long range:


Busy, busy.

The 12z GFS develops a disturbance currently southwest of Baja California Sur and sends it towards a developing 94E, resulting in a Fujiwhara between the two potent tropical storms:

The 12z ECMWF is boring and just has 94E as a decent tropical storm:

In the Atlantic, the 12z GFS follows the 6z GFS in developing the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic when it positions itself east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Decent tropical storm into the Louisiana-Texas border in the long range:


Busy, busy.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Keep in mind that studies like Maloney & Hartman (2000) have shown that there is typically a spike in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico TC development about 15 days after the MJO reaches the East Pacific. So if an MJO is reaching the East Pac in early July, we should expect any resulting Atlantic Basin development to occur around mid July.
Way out there, but that would also suggest a favorably located MJO around early/mid-September. That might be the problem one.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Long range runs do what GFS has done as the 18z run dropped what the 12z run had. That is why I prefer the timeframe of 144 hours and less to look at them.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Long range runs do what GFS has done as the 18z run as it dropped what the 12z run had. That is why I prefer the timeframe of 144 hours and less to look at them.
It even is hinting at MDR Activity, probably just MJO convective feedback but if lets say mid week next week its still showing something in the MDR I may just take a look at it but as of now with it being at day 16 its fantasy at best, but I could see something forming in the Western Caribbean sort of like what became Andrea and what became Barry especially if the Gulf of Hundoras system happens to reappear on the 0zGFS and at the 120 to 192 range it tends to drop systems and bring them back on later runs
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
06z GFS continues the western caribbean development and brings the cyclone into Mobile Bay. Still 10 days out but GFS showing some consistency now with western caribbean development the last several runs.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_wnatl_240_10m_wnd_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_wnatl_240_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Here ya go, 06Z GFS at 240 hr:


Last edited by tolakram on Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: changed to imageshack.us to fix image display
Reason: changed to imageshack.us to fix image display
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
06Z GFS shows initial development in Caribbean in about 7 days:


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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
12z GFS develops at 180 hours in W Caribbean and stronger. Looking for more model consistency and other models to join like the ECMWF.

At 264 hours.


At 264 hours.

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- somethingfunny
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
This bears watching.


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navy also showing a something in the carrib at 180 hours
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
If the models keep it moving up in the timetable we may have something the last few days of the month, may be the start of a very active period
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