Global model runs discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4701 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:40 pm

For entertainment purposes as the 12z ECMWF has what may be a strong Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles at 240 hours.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4702 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:For entertainment purposes as the 12z ECMWF has what may be a strong Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles at 240 hours.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/rqzq0w.jpg


Looking at the high-res surface chart for 240 hrs, I see pressures 1016-1018mb in that region at 240 hrs. I think we'll have to wait until around the middle of next week for some of these medium-range models to start picking up on TC potential in the Caribbean late this month or early in July.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4703 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:46 pm

Has it stalling texas/la border
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4704 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:18 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:Has it stalling texas/la border


What are you referring to?
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#4705 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:33 pm

The 12z CMC has a massive and potent hurricane southwest of Baja California Sur from 94E in 6 days:

Image

The 12z GFS develops a disturbance currently southwest of Baja California Sur and sends it towards a developing 94E, resulting in a Fujiwhara between the two potent tropical storms:

Image

The 12z ECMWF is boring and just has 94E as a decent tropical storm:

Image

In the Atlantic, the 12z GFS follows the 6z GFS in developing the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic when it positions itself east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Decent tropical storm into the Louisiana-Texas border in the long range:

Image
Image

Busy, busy.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4706 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:Keep in mind that studies like Maloney & Hartman (2000) have shown that there is typically a spike in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico TC development about 15 days after the MJO reaches the East Pacific. So if an MJO is reaching the East Pac in early July, we should expect any resulting Atlantic Basin development to occur around mid July.


Way out there, but that would also suggest a favorably located MJO around early/mid-September. That might be the problem one.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4707 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:27 pm

Long range runs do what GFS has done as the 18z run dropped what the 12z run had. That is why I prefer the timeframe of 144 hours and less to look at them.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4708 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:Long range runs do what GFS has done as the 18z run as it dropped what the 12z run had. That is why I prefer the timeframe of 144 hours and less to look at them.


It even is hinting at MDR Activity, probably just MJO convective feedback but if lets say mid week next week its still showing something in the MDR I may just take a look at it but as of now with it being at day 16 its fantasy at best, but I could see something forming in the Western Caribbean sort of like what became Andrea and what became Barry especially if the Gulf of Hundoras system happens to reappear on the 0zGFS and at the 120 to 192 range it tends to drop systems and bring them back on later runs
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#4709 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:56 pm

The 18z GFS still very much has an area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula, it just doesn't develop it due to its proximity to land.
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#4710 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:49 pm

0z GFS:

Image
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#4711 Postby Alyono » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:20 am

18Z actually did develop something. It showed a TD in the BOC

GFS is again consistently showing something. Just varying on location
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4712 Postby ronjon » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:42 am

06z GFS continues the western caribbean development and brings the cyclone into Mobile Bay. Still 10 days out but GFS showing some consistency now with western caribbean development the last several runs.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_wnatl_240_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4713 Postby N2FSU » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:56 am

Here ya go, 06Z GFS at 240 hr:

Image
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: changed to imageshack.us to fix image display
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4714 Postby N2FSU » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:02 am

06Z GFS shows initial development in Caribbean in about 7 days:

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4715 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:43 am

12z GFS develops at 180 hours in W Caribbean and stronger. Looking for more model consistency and other models to join like the ECMWF.

Image

At 264 hours.

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4716 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:26 pm

This bears watching.

Image
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#4717 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:32 pm

Quite consistent from the GFS. Let's see if others jump on board.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4718 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:33 pm

12z CMC has a tropical storm develop near Belize
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#4719 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 21, 2013 1:05 pm

navy also showing a something in the carrib at 180 hours
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4720 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 21, 2013 1:08 pm

If the models keep it moving up in the timetable we may have something the last few days of the month, may be the start of a very active period
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