ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

JMA June ENSO forecast

This Japanese model screams Neutral to Weak La Nina and it differs big time with the ECMWF.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... st.html.en

First time I hear of it.

[Ntxw]

MJO is currently heading into the Pacific (6,7,8). Slow warming will probably occur soon in the equatorial Pacific. As a result of the latest MJO implications next 1-2 weeks will likely have suppressed tropical activity in the Atlantic, if anything does form it will be similar to what TD2 is doing and not turn into anything significant. EPAC and WPAC will likely get into gear in the mean time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

If the MJO continues into phase 1 activity chances increase for the Atlantic but that is longer range modelling.

[cycloneye]

ENSO Models Mid-June Plume=No El Nino for ASO

Nothing that resembles El Nino not only for ASO (August,September and October but until the end of 2013 and in early 2014.



http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[Ntxw]

Based on latest TAO/Triton buoy data I think we will see 3.4 warm up a little bit on Monday. May end up at 0C, 3 has definitely warmed, 4 I'd say cooled.

[Kingarabian]

SOI has dropped almost back to the neutral threshold. I guess it's anticipating warming as well.

[cycloneye]

Here is the June EUROSIP forecast.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good table of years with traditional El Ninos and the Modoki ones.

[Ptarmigan]

Here is a good table of years with traditional El Ninos and the Modoki ones.

I notice that Modoki El Nino and Non-Modoki El Nino by PDO phase.

1946-1976 Cool
4 Modoki
4 Traditional

1976-1998 Warm
4 Modoki
4 Traditional
2 Strong El Nino (1982-1983 and 1997-1998)

1998-2002 Cool
None

2002-2008 Warm
2 Modoki
1 Traditional

2008-? Cool
1 Modoki

The 2009-2010 El Nino was Modoki and quite a strong one. It is one the strongest Modoki El Nino besides 1991-1992. The 2009-2010 occurred in a cool PDO phase. Interesting to note that following winter Modoki El Nino, there are active hurricanes seasons like 1964, 1969, 1995, 2005, and 2010. I have wondered about that. They occur when Atlantic is in warm phase. Interesting to note that 1968-1969 is Modoki and following winter is non-Modoki El Nino.

[Ntxw]

Well instead of slightly warming like I thought from buoy data ENSO did the opposite and slightly cooled. The change isn't significant but the fact it did not warm despite a kelvin wave and MJO presence is surprising.

[cycloneye]

Well instead of slightly warming like I thought from buoy data ENSO did the opposite and slightly cooled. The change isn't significant but the fact it did not warm despite a kelvin wave and MJO presence is surprising.

Here is this week's Climate Prediction Center update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Here is a tweet by Levi Cowan about the warming expected with the Kelvin Wave.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 5h
Nino 3.4 is about to significantly warm as subsurface water makes its way upward. Big Q is does Nino 1,2,3 stay cold?

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

[Ntxw]

I was expecting the warming to have already begun, but it didn't last week. While it's true the sub-surface still has a large warm pool, it has been shrinking. If it doesn't get going next 1-2 weeks we'll be at the down-welling phase again of the MJO (if models are correct) which doesn't bode well for meaningful warming and possible more cooling at the surface.

Edit: It could also be I'm thinking too fast with the Kelvin wave. I'll give it another week since SOI has been going down. At the very least since it's almost July I'm almost certain La Nina or El Nino will not come by ASO, heart of tropical season.

[SoupBone]

How hard and fast would SOI numbers have to plummet in order for even a remote possibility of el nino during the peak of the season? It seems like any chance of that happening is fading quickly.

[cycloneye]

How hard and fast would SOI numbers have to plummet in order for even a remote possibility of el nino during the peak of the season? It seems like any chance of that happening is fading quickly.

It has to crash to -8 and below and stay in that area for a few weeks.

[NDG]

:uarrow: I was expecting the warming to have already begun, but it didn't last week. While it's true the sub-surface still has a large warm pool, it has been shrinking. If it doesn't get going next 1-2 weeks we'll be at the down-welling phase again of the MJO (if models are correct) which doesn't bode well for meaningful warming and possible more cooling at the surface.

Edit: It could also be I'm thinking too fast with the Kelvin wave. I'll give it another week since SOI has been going down. At the very least since it's almost July I'm almost certain La Nina or El Nino will not come by ASO, heart of tropical season.

I agree, I was about to say that if anything the sub-surface warm pool has been shrinking thus why Levi Cowan's tweet does not make any sense with if anything now a big cool pool is developing in the subsurface of Nino 3.4

[ninel conde]

SOI now +33.8.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 27 Jun 2013 Average for last 30 days 10.4
Average for last 90 days 6.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 33.8

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up, up, and away.

[Kingarabian]

Ah, Levi Cowan's forecast might verify then!

[cycloneye]

Well,it looks like the warming caused by the Kelvin Wave moving eastward that is occurring will not be sufficient for El Nino to make an appearance by what the SOI is showing being way positive.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 warmed up a little, not as much as the thinking a couple of weeks ago. Lets see how long this trend continues.