Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

the thing is the pattern is ripe for the western Caribbean in the next week to 10 days, but after that if the MJO goes as modeled the ripeness will spread to the MDR so that could be an active period and I do predict 4 ns 2 h and 1 mh so we'll see where this goes, it could be like 2004 where even though the MJO was favorable in late June into July the shear in TUTT killed most stuff that tried to develop until the TUTT moved out of the Caribbean around early August

[ROCK]

we wait for the MJO.....but these long range runs do show some juicy stuff moving into the carib in the next 10 days. Not sure I can bite on multiple storms as JB is suggesting.

[Rgv20]

This is last nights 0zGFS Ensembles out to 300hrs (Lala Land) but at least most of them show lowering pressures (1004mb) in the BOC and the Pacific.

[catskillfire51]

12z today still has a weak disturbance going to al it looks

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS shows a possible quick start to the Cape Verde season around July 7th in stride with the coming MJO into the MDR by that time frame so we'll see if that time frame of possible MDR development moves up but that time frame has been pointed out by many as a start of an active period

[Alyono]

12z GFS shows a possible quick start to the Cape Verde season around July 7th in stride with the coming MJO into the MDR by that time frame so we'll see if that time frame of possible MDR development moves up but that time frame has been pointed out by many as a start of an active period

I beleive the research has only showed a link between the mjo and the GOM/Carib, not with CV storms

[blp]

CMC long range shows BOC action.

[LaBreeze]

CMC long range shows BOC action.

http://imageshack.us/a/img838/6718/ivv7.jpg

According to this image - where would the "system" be heading? I know it's early and nothing has developed - just according to this image. Thanks in advance.

[Dean4Storms]

12z CMC has that Low moving NW in the general direction if the central TX. Coast.

[ronjon]

Here's the loop of the 12z CMC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013062312/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[floridasun78]

Here's the loop of the 12z CMC.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013062312/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

i heard before that cmc over do tropical system not good tropical weather models

[Nederlander]

i heard before that cmc over do tropical system not good tropical weather models

CMC has historically been pretty good on track though..

[catskillfire51]

gfs looks like it's back on track with a weak low storm going to la

[Rgv20]

0z GFS has a weak low moving north by early July..

[ROCK]

Both the CMC and GFS showing something in the long range now about the same time frame 228-240hr...still though it is long range and not very reliable. I don't really see the origin either during the runs. Does co-inside with the favorable MJO in a week or 2....interesting days ahead!!

[Rgv20]

0zCMC continues to show development in the GOM by day 10..

[BigB0882]

That's bullish but then again, it is the CMC. Bears watching.

[caneman]

That's bullish but then again, it is the CMC. Bears watching.

CMC did well with Andrea though. And it also had an upgrade though right? So, I say it bears (no pun intended) watching.

[wxman57]

That's bullish but then again, it is the CMC. Bears watching.

CMC did well with Andrea though. And it also had an upgrade though right? So, I say it bears (no pun intended) watching.

The Canadian model develops absolutely everything, so occasionally it will be right.

[catskillfire51]

Both the CMC and GFS showing something in the long range now about the same time frame 228-240hr...still though it is long range and not very reliable. I don't really see the origin either during the runs. Does co-inside with the favorable MJO in a week or 2....interesting days ahead!!

the gfs you can follow the low from southern Mexican coast to the boc